Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[otherdispair]

Considering how attached Islamist are to dates that have some sort or symbolic meaning to them.
today is the anniversary of the bombing of the Brussels airport. If this is ISIS like they claimed, striking again on the same day of the last successful big attack in the West wouldn't be to surprising. Adds a bit of "guess who's still around fuckers" to it. Although I doubt that this attack would have been set up and co-ordinated by the ISIS hierarchy (if that is even still a thing) like back then. Bombings take more planning than shootings and Russia isn't exactly know for not having a black market for guns (while having gun laws that make the br*its look like free men).

 

[Mikoyan]

I do wonder what Unburnt Powderstorm bro is shooting there. Reminds me of the guy at my range that would load slow burn rifle powder in his 45 loads.

 

[mindlessobserver]

The French White paper has also revealed the major shortfall that knee capped Europe's ability to make artillery shells.

Fucking GUN COTTON. Our idiot leaders outsourced the production GUN COTTON to the Chinese. And the Chinese immediately cut off exports of the material a few weeks into the war.

 

[OakTreeinTheGarden]

I do wonder what Unburnt Powderstorm bro is shooting there. Reminds me of the guy at my range that would load slow burn rifle powder in his 45 loads.

I was wondering about that myself. At first I thought it was magnesium, but once it became clear he wasn't using a shotgun (and the pattern of the sparks didn't match what that kind of ammunition usually looks like) I looked on Google. According to one gun forum I found, it's unburned powder cooking off on its way moving down/leaving the barrel. This can happen if the rounds loaded are "too fast" or "too slow", according to the forum consensus. It's probably cheap, bulk ammo, which would make sense in this context.

 

[Mikoyan]

I was wondering about that myself. At first I thought it was magnesium, but once it became clear he wasn't using a shotgun (and the pattern of the sparks didn't match what that kind of ammunition usually looks like) I looked on google. According to one gun forum I found, it's unburned powder cooking off on its way moving down/leaving the barrel. This can happen if the rounds loaded are "too fast" or "too slow", according to the forum consensus. It's probably cheap, bulk ammo, which would make sense in this context.

Oh, no, that's exactly what the sparks are, it's unburnt powder, and you get it with powder that's too slow for the situation. But that's... a rifle, so I wouldn't expect that dramatic of a shower.

"cheap bulk ammo" comrade, this is Russia. Here we call it 'ammo'.

 

[Ghostse]

ISIS claims responsibility for the terrorist attack in Moscow.

Looks like its the 2010s all over again.

Daily reminder that Russia is still massively active in Syria and what is propping up Asad.

France has released its new defense White Paper.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=s1iS6ib45Z8
Apparently Macron's sabre rattling about Ukraine was not idle blustering. The summary of the French defense posture, which will supersede the last White paper that came out almost 20 years ago declares that France can no longer rely on its Allies or International Institutions to secure its Sovereignty. Consequently, the new defense posture will see France retool its Military from Expeditionary to fight terrorism, to Massed Power to fight a near peer power. For fiscal year 2024, the French have doubled their spending on the nuclear weapons program to improve their ability in the first strike theater by air attack, and second strike capability via submarines. Massive capital expenditures are also being applied to the French Military Industrial Complex to retool them for the production of Artillery Shells and other Munitions in order to cover a glaring shortfall that saw overreliance on China. They also intend to develop and deploy a nuclear powered Super Carrier which will be a component of their Nuclear First Strike capability as well as their ability to project power and support ground operations.

The "Near Peer Power" France is retooling to essentially take on solo is left unstated.

I'll believe it when France produces a new tank hull for the first time this decade.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Daily reminder that Russia is still massively active in Syria and what is propping up Asad.


I'll believe it when France produces a new tank hull for the first time this decade.

Actually, that's absent from the defense posture apparently. The Bulk of Frances defense spending is going to get plowed into their Navy, Air Force, and Nuclear Weapons capability. The remainder will be put towards turning France into an industrial arsenal capable of churning out Ammo and Equipment that can be sold.

Reading between the lines, The French Generals and Admirals have concluded its inevitable Eastern Europe will provide the meat for the grinder. France has to provide the handle.

The other major take away is this signals a major rupture with the USA and the UK. France intends to seek independent great power politics and will be backing it up with a strategic nuclear capable navy and air force

 

[Jewthulhu]

France has released its new defense White Paper.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=s1iS6ib45Z8
Apparently Macron's sabre rattling about Ukraine was not idle blustering. The summary of the French defense posture, which will supersede the last White paper that came out almost 20 years ago declares that France can no longer rely on its Allies or International Institutions to secure its Sovereignty. Consequently, the new defense posture will see France retool its Military from Expeditionary to fight terrorism, to Massed Power to fight a near peer power. For fiscal year 2024, the French have doubled their spending on the nuclear weapons program to improve their ability in the first strike theater by air attack, and second strike capability via submarines. Massive capital expenditures are also being applied to the French Military Industrial Complex to retool them for the production of Artillery Shells and other Munitions in order to cover a glaring shortfall that saw overreliance on China. They also intend to develop and deploy a nuclear powered Super Carrier which will be a component of their Nuclear First Strike capability as well as their ability to project power and support ground operations.

The "Near Peer Power" France is retooling to essentially take on solo is left unstated.

France has wanted to be its own superpower independent of America for a long time now. And with America flaking on Ukraine, and consequently Europe, France is taking the opportunity to try to fill America's shoes. I'm sure France dreams of Europe increasingly turning to them as its defensive base as confidence in American deterrence is increasingly shaken.

 

[mindlessobserver]

France has wanted to be its own superpower independent of America for a long time now. And with America flaking on Ukraine, and consequently Europe, France is taking the opportunity to try to fill America's shoes. I'm sure France dreams of Europe increasingly turning to them as its defensive base as confidence in American deterrence is increasingly shaken.

100% this. But before this white paper came out it was just theory. It's now stated policy. Poland and the Baltics will provide the troops and tanks.

France intends to provide the Ammo, Air support, Blockade....and the Nukes. The nuclear component of the White Paper is a massive red flag. France has doubled their expenditure from 4 Billion to 8 Billion. Just this year. But that is what they are publicly disclosing.

I bet big money that is not the whole story. France is developing an ICBM. They already have the hard work done with the Ariane rocket used by the ESA for sattelight launches. I don't believe for a moment the massive funds being allocated to the Nuclear forces are for more subs. They intend to fit their air launched warheads to the Military grade Ariane as a MIRV.

They aren't even being subtle either.

 

[otherdispair]

France has wanted to be its own superpower independent of America for a long time now. And with America flaking on Ukraine, and consequently Europe, France is taking the opportunity to try to fill America's shoes. I'm sure France dreams of Europe increasingly turning to them as its defensive base as confidence in American deterrence is increasingly shaken.

It's not the US though its Brexit as well.
If the Brits where still in the EU they could counter balance against the frogs when it comes to defense being a nuclear armed state with a decent military force. But now militarily it's just the frogs in the EU. Sure some of the slav countries have a decent army and the Fins aren't to scoff at. But they are the ones with the nukes.

 

[mindlessobserver]

In

It's not the US though its Brexit as well.
If the Brits where still in the EU they could counter balance against the frogs when it comes to defense being a nuclear armed state with a decent military force. But now militarily it's just the frogs in the EU. Sure some of the slav countries have a decent army and the Fins aren't to scoff at. But they are the ones with the nukes.

The British have become a joke though militarily. They tow the line with the USA without fail, while the Royal Navy has allowed itself to lose its entire carrier component due to budget cuts while the UKs nuclear component has likewise atrophied under successive liberal governments.

At this point whatever nuclear deterrent the UK has is a second strike capability at best. Run by submarines that have failed to launch even under peace time test exercises.

With the USA as a probably feckless ally depending on its 2 year election cycle its no wonder then the Frogs are getting Froggy.

 

[Jewthulhu]

It's not the US though its Brexit as well.
If the Brits where still in the EU they could counter balance against the frogs when it comes to defense being a nuclear armed state with a decent military force. But now militarily it's just the frogs in the EU. Sure some of the slav countries have a decent army and the Fins aren't to scoff at. But they are the ones with the nukes.

I think the main difference is that England was always kind of flakey with mainland Europe. The US on the other hand has had massive influence over Europe since the end of WWII, influence that frankly, France wants.

Brexit definitely gives France a bigger opening for a power play in Europe, but the main thing that opened the door is the turmoil in America.

 

[otherdispair]

I think the main difference is that England was always kind of flakey with mainland Europe. The US on the other hand has had massive influence over Europe since the end of WWII, influence that frankly, France wants.

Brexit definitely gives France a bigger opening for a power play in Europe, but the main thing that opened the door is the turmoil in America.

Yes and no.
France always wants more glory. It isn't even about influence but them simply thinking they are the hottest shit ever and so surely they should share what ever they come up with because it is the hottest shit ever.
The US and its infuence and that isn't going away nor do the French in power honestly think it is. But their balancing powers inside the EU are currently on the back foot and it is against them that they are pushing. The UK has lost it's influence on the continent and the Germans don't have any influence when it comes to military affairs. So the frogs see a chance to peacock, a spot of gloire to go with their Olympics.

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

A refinery in Novokuybyshevsk, Samara Oblast got droned tonight:


UPDATE: geolocation of the refinery:

 

[mindlessobserver]

Yes and no.
France always wants more glory. It isn't even about influence but them simply thinking they are the hottest shit ever and so surely they should share what ever they come up with because it is the hottest shit ever.
The US and its infuence and that isn't going away nor do the French in power honestly think it is. But their balancing powers inside the EU are currently on the back foot and it is against them that they are pushing. The UK has lost it's influence on the continent and the Germans don't have any influence when it comes to military affairs. So the frogs see a chance to peacock, a spot of gloire to go with their Olympics.

See, I don't buy this theory because it reeks way too much of the Anglo position that the French desire to carve their own defense posture is solely for pride. The French position has always been as a Continental power they have always been in the fire and could not hide behind a wall of water like the British and the Americans. Which means if shit goes off shit hits them.

France caught the sharp end of the dildo in both World Wars and got fucked. The USA and the UK got off lightly by comparison. French distrust of their Anglo allies is not based on peacocking but hard learned experience that they cannot rely on either when shit really hits the fan.

 

[Mikoyan]

I bet big money that is not the whole story. France is developing an ICBM. They already have the hard work done with the Ariane rocket used by the ESA for sattelight launches. I don't believe for a moment the massive funds being allocated to the Nuclear forces are for more subs. They intend to fit their air launched warheads to the Military grade Ariane as a MIRV.

This is ridiculously unlikely.

France, like the UK, never really got into the ICBM game in a serious way because even being one of the bigger countries in Europe they don't have room like the US does for launch complexes. It also would not be 'military grade Ariane', which is arguably too large in its SLV role and a zillion times too big for an ICBM.

Now: Beefing up the SLBMs? Renewing the air component? Air launched hypersonics and (newer) cruise missiles? I can see one or all of these.

If it's a land ballistic missile component then look to a small road mobile system or... Rail mobile would actually be pretty French.

Yes and no.
France always wants more glory. It isn't even about influence but them simply thinking they are the hottest shit ever and so surely they should share what ever they come up with because it is the hottest shit ever.
The US and its infuence and that isn't going away nor do the French in power honestly think it is. But their balancing powers inside the EU are currently on the back foot and it is against them that they are pushing. The UK has lost it's influence on the continent and the Germans don't have any influence when it comes to military affairs. So the frogs see a chance to peacock, a spot of gloire to go with their Olympics.

All of this too. And I'll add: If there's an international relations/power dynamic to wanting to beef up deterrence I'd bet huge the motivation is "so zat ze bosche do not have an excuse" to make their own.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

According to one gun forum I found, it's unburned powder cooking off on its way moving down/leaving the barrel. This can happen if the rounds loaded are "too fast" or "too slow", according to the forum consensus. It's probably cheap, bulk ammo, which would make sense in this context.

It can happen that way, but more often it's because of short barrel carbines; especially in Russian calibers & rifles. Even in the slavlands, their cheap ammo is still pretty decent as far as quality-control goes (other former combloc/E. European places not so much).

But who knows where they dug their ammo up from; it could be left over from their last go-around in Chechnya, pilfered from supplies headed to Ukraine, and a lot of it being 60's or 70's (or earlier) production that's been stored in shit conditions for multiple decades Even our best Lake City quiet pills won't hold up well after 30-40yrs in a damp & rat-infested Russian cellar/bunker/warehouse.

Regardless though, even with crusty decrepit rounds stolen from Transnistria, at most they're only losing a couple hundred fps along with some failure to fire, and at worst a split case or squib but that's Murphy's fault). Generally not a big deal when gunning down people in a mall or concert hall at point blank range with a squad of homies.

---

Here's Rybar's totally not expected hot take on the happening:

 

[mindlessobserver]

France, like the UK, never really got into the ICBM game in a serious way because even being one of the bigger countries in Europe they don't have room like the US does for launch complexes.

You honestly think France developed thr Ariane, put its launch facility in fucking South America , and then made the shit hole South American colony a unified part or the French Republic, and the European Union...because they wanted to launch TV satellites?

My dude, French Guina is a part of the European Union to serve the exact purpose you very correctly pointed out mainland France cannot serve. As an ICBM Launch site.

 

[Mikoyan]

You honestly think France developed thr Ariane, put its launch facility in fucking South America , and then made the shit hole South American colony a unified part or the French Republic, and the European Union...because they wanted to launch TV sattelites?

Y...yes? They wanted to be the launcher component of the ESA especially after the UK tripped on their dick with the Black Arrow.

You may be interested to learn: The M1 missile on Redoubtable, and thus the independent French strategic ballistic missile deterrent went on duty two years before they started work on Ariane 1 and eight before it launched. In the 70s you could've made a point that SLBM accuracy wasn't sufficient for a first strike capable weapon but the French nuclear doctrine - which is pretty much globally unique in that it is open and explicit in how it works - doesn't need real hard target capability.

(These days, there's plenty of tech to get close to ICBM accuracy with sub launched missiles, which comes up a lot in the debate about Sentinel.)

 

[otherdispair]

See, I don't buy this theory because it reeks way too much of the Anglo position that the French desire to carve their own defense posture is solely for pride. The French position has always been as a Continental power they have always been in the fire and could not hide behind a wall of water like the British and the Americans. Which means if shit goes off shit hits them.

France caught the sharp end of the dildo in both World Wars and got fucked. The USA and the UK got off lightly by comparison. French distrust of their Anglo allies is not based on peacocking but hard learned experience that they cannot rely on either when shit really hits the fan.

never underestimate the frogs vanity. But yes the french nuclear program originates in the the concern you mention and they have kept it because of it. But their nukes aren't the sum total of their influence and ambitions. They made them because they felt like the need them and now the lean on them because they feel they can use them to position themselves as the top dog militarily in Europe.
What is the value in being the military top dog? Vanity and perhaps a few defense contracts.

You honestly think France developed thr Ariane, put its launch facility in fucking South America , and then made the shit hole South American colony a unified part or the French Republic, and the European Union...because they wanted to launch TV satellites?

My dude, French Guina is a part of the European Union to serve the exact purpose you very correctly pointed out mainland France cannot serve. As an ICBM Launch site.

they did the same with Algeria and their other overseas territories.
The french republican tradition holds that it is not the soil or your blood that makes you french (well aside from citizenship laws) or even speaking french but the constitution.
fuck new calidonia on the other side of the world is 100/100 france to them