I expect a similar situation to 2016. Every media poll screams "Biden," but Trump isn't courting the media, and never does well in their polls.
Instead he has a team of experts, pulled from their individual fields where they ran successful businesses. These people are stratigests, and are working to bring in the vote from demographics that don't normally vote for the Right. This includes union workers, and many minorities that hold right-leaning beliefs, but vote Blue just because they're expected to.
Trump's supporters are celebratory, and are enthusiastically voting for him. Biden's support comes not from people who actually like him, but from people who believe the media or have Trump Derrangement Syndrome. The Dems are also heavily relying on demographics that don't traditionally vote in force, like blacks and youth.
So Trump will likely win a strategic victory. But, in the last 4 years the Dems have managed to ruin several of their own states, causing mass exoduses of people from blue to red states. These people continue to vote Democrat for some reason. Only time will tell if Trump's strategic effort will be enough to overcome the sheer bludgeoning force of the numbers the Democrats are able to summon from high population blue states.
TLDR: Trump is a surgeon with a scalpel, Democrats are a retard with a club. Intelligent strategy usually wins, but sometimes the club makes contact.