Reports of Russian troops in Syria

In recent days, there have been several reports of Russian troops and vehicles fighting in Syria alongside Assad.

-Ynet says that a Russian expeditionary force has set up a forward operating base near Damascus, and thousands of military personnel and fighter jets are expected to begin showing up in the coming months.

Russia's also apparently reached an agreement with Iran to keep Assad in power as a buffer to prevent ISIS from spreading further east.

-State media cited by the Telegraph also supposedly shows Russian troops and vehicles already fighting rebels in Latakia. Other social media posts also seem to show Russian drones and aircraft photographed over Syria.



-Earlier in August, Bosphorus Naval News posted pictures of what seemed to be a Russian ship carrying military vehicles heading through Istanbul.

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Of course, Russia has been supporting the Assad regime for a long time; that's not news. There have also always been wild-eyed reports about Russian invasions of Syria because the whole region is a clusterfuck of misinformation. But these reports are credible enough that the White House is "monitoring" them.


Discuss.
 
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Vitriol said:
Good to see someone has the balls to directly engage isis.
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the U.S.-led coalition has conducted somewhere over 6,000 airstrikes against ISIS though

Though this is apparently paving the way for an actual ground presence/is already one, so that's interesting.

The timing is also interesting because ISIS' brand new affiliate in the Caucasus just claimed its first attack against Russian troops a few days ago.
 
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Vitriol said:
And that's very laudable, but i think isis is a threat that needs to be crushed on the ground to dispel the myth of their 'divine' jihad.
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As much as I don't like Vladimir Putin led Russia, it's good that Russia is attacking them on ground. ISIS is an issue and they need to be stopped. I'm honestly all for U.S. not getting into another war that'll be more of a strain to the economy.
 
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If it is true this is a big step in Russia's involvement in Syria and against ISIS, Russia's only constant warmwater depot is in Tartus and they have obvious interests there. On the other hand what @Guardian G. I. said, aided by the fact that the supposed Russians in the tweet do not appear to be using Russian gear or uniforms. We'll have to wait and see.
Edit: The Tigr (jeep in OP's photo) is a commercial monkey model, not the version used by the Russian Federation. Makes sense, as the Russians have been sending Assad various vehicles and gear to use (which would explain the ships loaded with supplies). It is however possible Russian armoured crews are fighting against the rebels in Latakia, but regular naval infantry has not been spotted fighting. Just milling about Tartus.
 
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Russia smashed Chechnya and Georgia to bloody pulps in weeks and they were equally or better equipped as isil.
EDIT: strong rumours in Brazilian military forums points to a likely deployment of our troops in case of a new un peace mission to Lebanon.
 
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As Leonid said - Tartus is the key here. The Rebels have been putting increased pressure on Assad in Latakia Governorate lately - so if Russian forces go into action against the Rebels there it'd be a very interesting turn of events, not least because ISIS don't have a presence in Latakia, so the Russians could well be there to bolster Assad's failing defences. Bear in mind that Latakia is Assad's heartland, even more so than Damascus - if that area falls, the Alawites are history. One source I've said claims that the Alawite minority in Syria has already seen a third of its fighting-age men killed in the war - a big but believable figure, given that a lot of the guys in the elite units of the Syrian Armed Forces and the National Defence Forces militia are Alawites.
Geographically, I can't really see how the Russian forces currently in Syria can be directly engaging ISIS on the ground. This thread suggests Russian presence around Damascus, and the pics of naval forces transporting hardware suggest a ramping-up of the Russian presence at Tartus (Russian naval infantry have been patrolling around their base there ever since the war broke out, so far without any significant fighting). Now, the Damascus suburbs have only a very small ISIS presence (some ISIS wannabes in and around the Yarmouk camp), and the borders of Latakia Governorate are mostly held by the remnants of the northern branch of the FSA, Islamic Front and al-Nusra. For the Russians to fight ISIS on the ground, they'd have to travel via road to Aleppo, Hama or Palmyra Governorates - all of which is a long way through contested territory. In other words, it seems just as likely that this is a Russian intervention in the war on Assad's side, not just targeting ISIS but also the Rebels, and possibly even the Kurds (which could get very interesting considering the scale of NATO support for Rojava/YPG).
Of course, I don't doubt for a moment that the Russians will use this as a chance to get their air forces involved - Assad's air force is in a pretty poor state, and air power is one of the few advantages he has over the various opposition forces.
 
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I'd be very surprised if Russia commits ground troops in anything like substantial numbers. I don't see them "crushing" ISIS. At best they may be able to help Assad's forces secure the Latakia area (including Tartus) but they won't turn things around.

It's also quite possible to overestimate the importance of Tartus as Russia lacks the resources to really use it as a major military base. It was quasi-mothballed through most of the 00s.
 
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Dudeofteenage said:
I'd be very surprised if Russia commits ground troops in anything like substantial numbers. I don't see them "crushing" ISIS. At best they may be able to help Assad's forces secure the Latakia area (including Tartus) but they won't turn things around.

It's also quite possible to overestimate the importance of Tartus as Russia lacks the resources to really use it as a major military base. It was quasi-mothballed through most of the 00s.
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Whilst this is true, Russia has been trying to make Tartus a full-on naval base since at least the beginning of the civil war. However, the jury is still out over whether or not this will pan out like Russia hopes it will.
 
Leonid Brezhnev said:
Whilst this is true, Russia has been trying to make Tartus a full-on naval base since at least the beginning of the civil war. However, the jury is still out over whether or not this will pan out like Russia hopes it will.
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I kind of have a feeling that they are bigging up Tartus as an excuse to intervene in Syria rather than vice versa.
 
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