Security of the Indo-Pacific thread - Discuss the ongoing arming and security pacts of countries in the pacific from Japan to New Zealand.

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Type 10 MBT

Type 10 MBT

kiwifarms.net
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Feb 25, 2024
This thread is meant to serve as a small OSINT discussion for those interested in the defense of nations of the Indo-Pacific. In recent years multiple nations have grown concerned with China and the potential threats to security that come with it's proximity. Many Nations from Japan to Australia to South Korea to even the Philippines have been going through extensive revisions and increases to defense budgets aimed at securing trade and upping readiness for a potential conflict in the region. Here we can discuss anything defense related be it policy, laws, budgets, weapons and so on so long as it pertains to the Pacific region and it's defense. This discussion of course can include information about China's actions, technology and so on.

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Breadbassket said:
Bring back the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization?
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Honestly, creating a general Indo-Pacific alliance would be a smart move for the United States. Something like the Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization or IPCO would be a decent name. Not just for South-East Asia but rather the entire region.

Include Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Malaysia, Australia, Vietnam, and Thailand and include a defense provision for Taiwan, might as well bring India in on the fun while at it.
 
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Bogan said:
New Zealand is too incompetent now to be allowed in I guess.
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To be honest, I think New Zealand as a country is too sissified (they don't allow nuclear powered warships to dock in their ports) and I've read a few reports that they may possibly be compromised security wise.
 
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Bogan said:
New Zealand is too incompetent now to be allowed in I guess
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Though I've never really covered New Zealand in terms of defense analytics so what little I know comes from just looking at Australia but I honestly think their contribution to a hot conflict would be token at best, neutral at worst. This isn't to say they're incompetent but rather they just don't have anywhere near enough war material to contribute much. They have two Anzac class frigates as their primary surface combat fleet that received recent upgrades but even still aren't on the level of most of it's new contemporaries. They also have 4 patrol vessels, 2 of which are armed with single mount 25mm bushmasters as the primary armament and 2 other inshore vessels with 3 .50 cal HMGs as the primary armament. I think their role in a war, should they actually want to join, would be maintaining a trade lane from Australia to NZ with their fleet and sending Army members in small amounts in joint moves with Australia. They are a defense force for a small nation but overall they aren't looking too hot. They would likely have Australian and American naval assistance though so that is in their favor. They should probably be kept in the loop just not in the inner circle.
 
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Allegedly, the Taiwan situation is heating up again as China is launching a giant naval “exercise” right now.

I have wondered for a while whether trade tensions/tariffs might be the thing that finally causes some Asia Happenings.

“Freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose” - why hold back when the “punishment” was gonna be the same economic sanctions anyway?
 
Rootless Cosmopolitan said:
Allegedly, the Taiwan situation is heating up again as China is launching a giant naval “exercise” right now.
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Recent trends apparently looks like China prefers a blockade scenario rather than an invasion. And it's focusing on recovering economically before it tries anything.
Source (Archive)
  • The People’s Liberation Army increasingly emphasizes blockade scenarios in its exercises and drills, signaling a strategic shift in Beijing’s approach to a military contingency in the Taiwan Strait.
  • Policy elites and current and former military officials corroborate this shift but largely project any military action as unlikely before 2027, citing economic challenges and geopolitical risks.
  • Going forward, Beijing will act to normalize blockade tactics around Taiwan and bolster salami-slicing tactics, thus advancing coercive capabilities on a longer timeline.
I've seen so many arguments for why a Taiwan conflict in inevitable but I'm honestly not sure either way. I certainly don't believe the Thucydides trap argument that war is inevitable simply due to power status at least.
 
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Jewthulhu said:
Recent trends apparently looks like China prefers a blockade scenario rather than an invasion. And it's focusing on recovering economically before it tries anything.
Source (Archive)
  • The People’s Liberation Army increasingly emphasizes blockade scenarios in its exercises and drills, signaling a strategic shift in Beijing’s approach to a military contingency in the Taiwan Strait.
  • Policy elites and current and former military officials corroborate this shift but largely project any military action as unlikely before 2027, citing economic challenges and geopolitical risks.
  • Going forward, Beijing will act to normalize blockade tactics around Taiwan and bolster salami-slicing tactics, thus advancing coercive capabilities on a longer timeline.
I've seen so many arguments for why a Taiwan conflict in inevitable but I'm honestly not sure either way. I certainly don't believe the Thucydides trap argument that war is inevitable simply due to power status at least.
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I believe war is something that just kind of happens in when people feel in a war mood. The justifications often come post hoc. I think the same thing about economic crashes.

The same is true about most fights in relationships as well.
 
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Rootless Cosmopolitan said:
I believe war is something that just kind of happens in when people feel in a war mood. The justifications often come post hoc. I think the same thing about economic crashes.

The same is true about most fights in relationships as well.
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I disagree, though perhaps a debate on the cause of war is outside the scope of this thread.

Either way, I think the question of if/how/when the China-Taiwan conflict turns hot depends a lot on how ideologically fanatical the Chinese government is. Do they still hold to the old-school communist idea that victory against "imperialists" is a given? Are they rabid enough ultranationalists who think fucking up their society is worth a bit of worthless land and prestige? Do they truly believe that western deterrence is noncredible? Are they willing enough to continue to play the long game?
 
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Jewthulhu said:
I disagree, though perhaps a debate on the cause of war is outside the scope of this thread.

Either way, I think the question of if/how/when the China-Taiwan conflict turns hot depends a lot on how ideologically fanatical the Chinese government is. Do they still hold to the old-school communist idea that victory against "imperialists" is a given? Are they rabid enough ultranationalists who think fucking up their society is worth a bit of worthless land and prestige? Do they truly believe that western deterrence is noncredible? Are they willing enough to continue to play the long game?
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Hmm. I guess I’ll rephrase my statement to say that I believe that the likelihood that China will escalate is directly related to the amount of social unrest they have at home. A high level of social unrest domestically could overcome the barriers that you cited.

I do think it’s interesting that economic sanctions were a credible deterrent pre Ukraine, but they seem to have totally lost their teeth. That goes into your point about the world losing faith in the power of western deterrence overall… which I believe is why so many people are so desperate to pour money and weapons into Ukraine. It’s to preserve what’s left of that credibility.

I think that a cessation of western involvement in Ukraine could do the trick.
 
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