Severe Weather outbreaks

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Meat Target

Meat Target

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NOAA has predicted an outbreak of severe weather this weekend, with about 5 million people in the "enhanced" risk path. day1otlk_1630.gifday2otlk_1730.gif

As of posting, there are large wedge tornadoes popping off in Nebraska and Texas:

Nebraska.jpg

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The soundings in central-northeast Texas are looking pretty rough right now, all of the requirements for supercells and significant tornadoes are there. In one month it'll be the 27th anniversary of Jarrell so right around that time of the year.

CAPE isn't extremely high but it's high enough, looks around 1,200-1,500 in Texas and closer to 2,000 in Nebraska. In Jarrell's case it was something incredible like 6,000J/kg.
 
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Agamemnon Busmalis said:
CAPE isn't extremely high but it's high enough, looks around 1,200-1,500 in Texas and closer to 2,000 in Nebraska. In Jarrell's case it was something incredible like 6,000J/kg.
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Population centers could be at risk. The Nebraska ones are heading right for Lincoln, and in Texas they're in the Triangle, around Waco/DFW.
 
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Meat Target said:
Population centers could be at risk. The Nebraska ones are heading right for Lincoln, and in Texas they're in the Triangle, around Waco/DFW.
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That's my biggest concern. Especially with how much these states have grown there is a lot more population at risk than there was a few decades ago. Cities have some impact on severe weather but it's not likely enough to stop a major tornado from forming, although even a weak tornado can cause a lot more damage and harm in a city due to the population density.

I bought the new edition of Grazulis' Significant Tornadoes: 1974-2022, it's pricey but packed with info.
 
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I have a buddy that's storm chasing in Oklahoma and the surrounding areas during all this. The last guidance he showed me had a freaky ass hatch for above EF3 potential storms in a good majority of the predicted areas.
It's basically sitting at a >45% chance of anything starting up to go ugly fast.

On an unrelated note, it's been over eleven years since the latest EF5 in Moore (and in general in the US iirc), so don't be surprised if that streak breaks in the next few days.
 
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Looking at things, I think the mid-south is going to come out relatively unscathed tonight.
Texas and Nebraska are blowing up, but nothing else seems to be taking off so far.

No sooner do I post this then Kansas starts lighting up.

Good luck, kiwis.
 
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A_Skellington said:
Looking at things, I think the mid-south is going to come out relatively unscathed tonight.
Texas and Nebraska are blowing up, but nothing else seems to be taking off so far.
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Rumors are that a train has been derailed, and sirens are sounding in Omaha.

Pic of the storm moving away from downtown Lincoln:
Lincoln.jpg
A_Skellington said:
No sooner do I post this then Kansas starts lighting up.
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KC is right in the bullseye all weekend.
 
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Meat Target said:
Rumors are that a train has been derailed, and sirens are sounding in Omaha.

Pic of the storm moving away from downtown Lincoln:
View attachment 5940667

KC is right in the bullseye all weekend.
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It's Twitter, so take with a grain of salt, but there's a picture of the supposed train.
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Edit: There's a confirmed tornado west of Omaha Nebraska, going towards Waterloo. It looks huge on the chaser footage.
 
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It's a mile wide. This is literally the kind of storm I was joking about earlier.
Jesus Christ, these poor people.

Edit: Tornado Alley is shifting hard and I don't like it.
 
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