The everything bubble

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RussianMozart

RussianMozart

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Feb 7, 2021
What are your thoughts on the everything bubble? Is it real or bullshit? Is everything affected or only some/most things? Discuss.
 
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Tookie said:
It's real but I think a lot of the mooning happening is also due to the dollar being rendered worthless.
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If this was Q&A you'd get the answer.

- Asset valuations are really high, and random BS like Theranos can get so much funding, because there is nowhere good for rich people and institutions to park their money, where they can get safe 5%-plus returns. So they're throwing a bunch of spaghetti at the wall and seeing what sticks. You could say that Silicon Valley VCs have always done this - fund 10 things for $10 million, assuming 9 will return $0 and one will return $1 billion. But now it seems everyone in the economy, big and small, is doing it. Like the Saudis bailing out WeWork.

- Regardless of speculation on any one cryptocurrency, crypto in general is getting closer in legitimacy to central bank currencies. Not because crypto's nice and stable, but because of the extensive manipulation central banks have been doing to, and through, those currencies since ~2009. The USD's perception is sinking down towards that of a shitcoin, not the other way around. Loss of public trust in the central banking system also might be behind some of the consumer cynicism which motivates meme stocks, I don't know, ask Matt Levine.
 
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It'll be one hell of a reckoning when it does pop. Hyperinflation and stagflation will be everywhere and joblessness/homelessness will be through the roof.

As much as I do like crypto, I'm utterly shocked major governments haven't tried to outright ban or heavily regulate it. Even the major banks and trading groups have been getting involved with it. People are seriously looking at using it to replace the USD as the reserve currency. (Understandable since trust in the banking system is at an all time low after 2008 and payment processors getting political the last few years.)

It's fucking insanity we are looking at a repeat of the worst parts of the 70's again. Urban decay, high crime, and massive inflation. Older milennials are probably going to be OK, but younger millennials and zoomers are immensely fucked.
 
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Lock in your fixed rate mortgages now people. Best case scenario free money forever! Worst case scenario the dollar tanks and the Banks end up holding the bag on a loan denominated in worthless paper.

Either way you have a place to live. just make sure you have money in assets that can be converted to pay property taxes. Dont get shafted on that front.

If you sign in adjustable rate mortgage though, consider suicide.
 
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In Modern Monetary Theory (which is the actual economic doctrine in the US, not "socialism" or "capitalism" because only autistic children care about political ideologies) the feds print as much money as they want. To prevent hyperinflation, they then take as much money as they can back from the market in the form of taxes.

Stock market & crypto (specifically stock & crypto market advertised to small retail "investors") are necessary for this model, because they are sponges which soak in all that extra printed money. Because of that, the prices of TESLA and DOGE rise instead of prices of food.

However, as you probably notice, this entire theory is bonkers, and eventually leads to a massive inflation anyway. At some point, people will be forced to start liquidating their stonks & crypto positions to pay for rent, electricity, gas, food etc. What happens then is pretty obvious

The current situation is interesting though because the US government looks to be purposefully crashing the dollar. If the dollar crashes China will be much more fucked than the US because almost all of their foreign trade is in dollar not yuan, and they have massive dollar reserves. That's why chinks have been buying tons of gold to have something to fall back to when the US decides to fuck them with economic a-bomb
 
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mindlessobserver said:
Lock in your fixed rate mortgages now people. Best case scenario free money forever! Worst case scenario the dollar tanks and the Banks end up holding the bag on a loan denominated in worthless paper.

Either way you have a place to live. just make sure you have money in assets that can be converted to pay property taxes. Dont get shafted on that front.

If you sign in adjustable rate mortgage though, consider suicide.
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This is actually one of the major reasons why the housing market is as nuts as it is right now. People know that fixed rate mortgage loans will only get cheaper if inflation gets out of control. Real estate is still one of the absolute safest places to put your money and it gets you a roof over your head. As you say, watch out for property taxes. (I'd keeps a portion of savings in inflation resistant stuff like precious metals, etc.) Also, make sure you don't pull a DSP and buy a place right before the market bottoms out and you end up underwater on the place.

I've been in the new house hunt since early 2020. The market is insanity, but I'm holding till things cool a little or things start to really go tits up.
 
I feel we might be running out on a lot of shit, like a month ago I was rading on some financial news about how we're running out of sand, fucking SAND!. Of course it meant sand that was ready available and good for construction and shit, same with a bunch of other minerals and metals.

When that happens your funny colored papers and digital money wont be worth shit, the guy with a warehouse full of copper wire is going to be the new 'master of the universe' because theres no copper left and we actually need that shit
Milkis said:
If this was Q&A you'd get the answer.

- Asset valuations are really high, and random BS like Theranos can get so much funding, because there is nowhere good for rich people and institutions to park their money, where they can get safe 5%-plus returns. So they're throwing a bunch of spaghetti at the wall and seeing what sticks. You could say that Silicon Valley VCs have always done this - fund 10 things for $10 million, assuming 9 will return $0 and one will return $1 billion. But now it seems everyone in the economy, big and small, is doing it. Like the Saudis bailing out WeWork.

- Regardless of speculation on any one cryptocurrency, crypto in general is getting closer in legitimacy to central bank currencies. Not because crypto's nice and stable, but because of the extensive manipulation central banks have been doing to, and through, those currencies since ~2009. The USD's perception is sinking down towards that of a shitcoin, not the other way around. Loss of public trust in the central banking system also might be behind some of the consumer cynicism which motivates meme stocks, I don't know, ask Matt Levine.
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How long we have until ome government goes and triggers a double-spend to render btc and other crypto worthless? I remember a lot of talk a few years ago about how vulnerable btc and every other crypto is to an attack done by nascent quantum computers, what changed? are coins somehow quantum-resistant now? else why is nobody else talking about this huge glaring problem when there are literal quantum computers for sale now?
Aqua Panda said:
As much as I do like crypto, I'm utterly shocked major governments haven't tried to outright ban or heavily regulate it. Even the major banks and trading groups have been getting involved with it. People are seriously looking at using it to replace the USD as the reserve currency. (Understandable since trust in the banking system is at an all time low after 2008 and payment processors getting political the last few years.)
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Isnt btc trading practically banned in china? lots of governments are making it super hard to use crypto as well
Carlos Weston Chantor said:
In Modern Monetary Theory (which is the actual economic doctrine in the US, not "socialism" or "capitalism" because only autistic children care about political ideologies) the feds print as much money as they want. To prevent hyperinflation, they then take as much money as they can back from the market in the form of taxes.
Click to expand...
But thats the shit we do in Argentina and it never works, we got like 4% inflation last month alone, that with some of the highest taxes in the world and rampant money printing
Carlos Weston Chantor said:
The current situation is interesting though because the US government looks to be purposefully crashing the dollar. If the dollar crashes China will be much more fucked than the US because almost all of their foreign trade is in dollar not yuan, and they have massive dollar reserves. That's why chinks have been buying tons of gold to have something to fall back to when the US decides to fuck them with economic a-bomb
Click to expand...
Wont that fuck over practically every person with savings in dollars tho?
 
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You can't double spend even with a quantum computer, double spend protection is a rule in the system, not cryptography based. Quantum computers can't help with mining very much if at all, because it's a double SHA256 hash.
 
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