Some very few years ago I issued a warning about the ongoing dangers of the disaster that could come from La Palma and the probability of a new eruption. I was criticised by various trolls as there, (according to them) was no evidence to support my warnings.
So who is still saying that today with the volcano blowing its top and within the last 24 hours, as of 1st Oct. 2021, opened yet another lava emitting vent, now the sixth (not just three as the local Spanish officials would have you believe)?
These are the same officials who are still encouraging tourists to come to La Palma and declare there is no danger and the “air inland is clean”, quote, unquote, when in fact acid laden air and SO2 is now venting more than ever, so far over 85,000 tons and that as a gas is a great deal of toxic material injurious to lungs and eyes.
So now from the horses mouth, the situation today. Within the last 24 hours three further significant earthquakes have been registered at the same depth as just before the eruption commence by a day or two.
This means more magna is flowing into the magna chamber nearer the surface and will vent within the near future, a few days. Volcanos pulse, so a temporary decline in emissions does not mean the eruption is abating, it is just the way they operate.
The geologist have already stated they expect an ongoing situation for 84 days at least and that is a tremendous amount and weight of material both as lava and ash deposits landing on the flanks of the mountain along which the potential landslide fault runs. When would it reach a tipping point?
A number of factors apply. The cones are buttressed by vertical basalt walls from previous eruptions and contain reservoirs of water naturally, plus with the lava now having reached the sea shore pressurised gases could be uplifting through the old lava tunnels and the conduction of the lava and tremendous heat (over 1000 c) is moving along the fissures and spreading laterally along the mountain ridge.
This steam, super heated water and white hot lava will be lubricating the fissures and breaking down the frictional adhesion to the cone. This is critical, because if she blows, I should say when she blows, the descent into the ocean takes but little more than ten minutes and reaches speeds of in the region of 200 mph downhill and then travels out some 30 odd miles underwater and down to over 4000 ft deep.
This would produce a massive amount of kinetic energy in the water, a mega tsunami and would obliterate the islands nearby in terms of collateral damage. Their warning time to impact from such an event is well under 30 minutes, no time to evacuate, perhaps you could get airborne if you had a plane on stand by, but ash contamination could well cause the engines to fail and flame out.
No time to be a tourist in that neck of the woods, or indeed within a great distance of the islands as the wavefronts extends through the waters at several hundred miles and hour, passing its energy from one water particle to another and uplifting to a crest as the wavefronts hit the bottom of a shelving sea floor and rise up to around 100 ft.
At sea you would only notice a BIG long swell, but no crest, so in shipping terms, you ‘Set to Sea’ at maximum speed and get into as much deep water as you can gain, head into the advancing wave at half speed (12 to 18 knots) with the front anchors deployed by near the maximum chain length – recognised maritime procedure before, having of course closed all the bulkhead doors and battened down the hatches.
Most ships would survive such an onslaught, unless near the shore line and then would likely flounder. My family has a lot of maritime experience I assure you.
