OK, so they sink a carrier in the opening phases.
I think we'll be OK.
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Now, add in that we have a dozen or so carriers just sitting there, in places like Bremerton, mothballed and turnkey'd.
They sink one of ours, there will be a moment of "You did what?" and then the US comes wading back in.
Even if we lost four taking out their two, once those two are gone, they're gone. The rest of the US Fleet will jump up and down on the rest of their shitty fleet like power-ups are going to pop out of their burning ships, meanwhile we're doing offshore bombardment on their shitty coastal cities, since that's primarily what China is. Those islands get mowed under by the Marines actually making the first amphibious landing they've done in nearly a century, backed up by the Navy, and after that, well...
The trick is to retaliate without eating a nuke on CONUS.
Of course, once that happens, it'll go from 1.2 billion Chinamen to a couple dozen million, and nothing of value will be lost. Russia can roll in and take up what isn't radioactive, and the world is a better place.
I think a lot of people under-estimate the US military strength because since 1991 we haven't really flexed at all.
If everyone looks at Afghanistan and Iraq as how it will go fighting against an actual nation state with population, industry, infrastructure, and politicians, that's like looking at a deer being hit by a VW and saying that the same deer would cave in the front of a high speed frieght train.
It doesn't work.
In the three year Korean War, an estimated 3 million Koreans died, mostly civilian, and killed
nearly 1 million Chinese troops. The US lost almost 34,000 service members and more than 105,000 were wounded.
A roughly 29 to 1 K/D rate.
And that was with a surprise attack in the middle of logistics problems in the middle of winter for the surprise attack.