Evergrande Financial Panic - Corona is not the only Contagion China is exporting

LatinasAreTheFuture said:
I believe the Chinese are considering using a nuclear first strike. They may feel like it is possible, and that it could be enough to paralyze their target.
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No, you’re wrong. The modern nuclear triad has for quite some time ensured that there will always be a second strike capability - even if only launched from submarines in a suicidal revenge strike.

War is coming, but China will limit their strikes to naval assets, Guam, and Japan. The idea is to attack so swiftly that you’ve invaded and conquered Taiwan by the time the US can fully mobilize. Maybe the war continues for a bit, but any ceasefire includes Taiwan and possibly several key islands (and maybe Korea if the Norks are feeling frisky).
 
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Save the Loli said:
Nobody does nuclear first strikes unless they're suicidal (like Israel's "Samson Option") because it means immediate retaliation. The CCP isn't trading Taiwan for all of their major cities and the Three Gorges Dam.
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Let's hope then Xi the Pooh or anybody else in the CCP aren't that suicidal.
 
mindlessobserver said:
The meltdown has begun. Debating if now is the time to liquidate into Gold or if I have a few more weeks to enjoy the mania.
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I know it sounds bad, but Xi can still fix this! Quick, can we get some international leaders on the CCP payroll to dramatically declare that they're "in awe" of our (shitty/stolen) military technology, or that they've "given up" trying to compete with our paper mill 'mathematicians' and AI 'researchers'?
 
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Knight of the Rope said:
I know it sounds bad, but Xi can still fix this! Quick, can we get some international leaders on the CCP payroll to dramatically declare that they're "in awe" of our (shitty/stolen) military technology, or that they've "given up" trying to compete with our paper mill 'mathematicians' and AI 'researchers'?
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You convinced me. Full liquidation in process. I am going to keep a few thousand dollars in Ethereum. The rest is going to some of my debt liabilities and the rest of that is going into gold. Not going to try and time the end here.
 
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mindlessobserver said:
The meltdown has begun. Debating if now is the time to liquidate into Gold or if I have a few more weeks to enjoy the mania.

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I wish it would hurry up and spread, I understand we're in a world of hurt, but the idea of the globohomo being derailed due to hubris, greed and idiocy makes me smile either way.
 
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uncleShitHeel said:
I wish it would hurry up and spread, I understand we're in a world of hurt, but the idea of the globohomo being derailed due to hubris, greed and idiocy makes me smile either way.
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It could take weeks or months to spread out or it could do it all at once. I expect crypto will be the first thing to break though as that is the part of the western market with huge exposure to what goes on in Asia.
 
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Expect food prices to increase in the short-term until farmers in the US, Brazil, Australia, NZ etc can readjust to demand. Chinese smallholds have massive exposure due to their financial entanglements with local govts (which are financed by land sales).

Xi will probably do well though. He can bail out the farmers and throw the regional party bosses under the bus to consolidate more power in Beijing. Might be some light famine but there probably won't be some grand China collapse. It'll just be kinda shitty for a while.

The most terrifying prospect is a Japan-style stagnation without Japan-style wealth. That might cause more... pronounced political unrest. But we won't know the full extent of things for years probably. There were still shitheads cheerleading the Japanese economy in the late 90s and they were significantly more transparent about how big of a bag they got left holding. We might not realize anything is wrong until Xi calls on working-age people to eat their grandparents in order to ease the pension crisis.
 
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Fcret said:
Expect food prices to increase in the short-term until farmers in the US, Brazil, Australia, NZ etc can readjust to demand. Chinese smallholds have massive exposure due to their financial entanglements with local govts (which are financed by land sales).
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If I was in charge I'd just tell the gringos to fuck off, meat is already expensive as hell over here. No hard feelings, I presume?
 
Maurice Caine said:
If I was in charge I'd just tell the gringos to fuck off, meat is already expensive as hell over here. No hard feelings, I presume?
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Oh, it's more that every food exporter is going to be selling more to China due to increased Chinese demand and domestic food prices will go up as a result. The US and Brazil probably aren't going to be selling each other meat.
 
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FAQnews Correspondent said:
Affected positively, right?

Ok, that would be bad.
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As much as I hate the cities, LA or Seattle or Portland being nuked would be bad. My big worry, given this scenario, is that we would be to afraid to fight back. If a nuclear strike on America guaranteed retaliation I wouldn’t be so worried about oh you know ~5 million necessary casualties. But a nuclear strike without a response? That’s really frightening.
 
HumanHive said:
Never going to happen. If anything a successor government will get more legalistic and authoritarian.
Just accept that this is the way the East is. Japan is an extreme exception, and born of wanting to be just like the west since Nobunaga.
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What makes the East crave communism?
 
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