2021 Virginia State election - Federal Beaurocracy and National Establishment vs. Everyone else.

Out of curiosity I just looked up the 2004 presidential election results:
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and 2020:
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Seems it's just the DC commuter areas driving the change
2020 is so much more saturated. Everyone talked about how polarized things were in 2020, but this is a giant capacitor charging up.
 
Out of curiosity I just looked up the 2004 presidential election results:
1280px-Virginia_Presidential_Election_Results_2004.svg.png

and 2020:
343px-Virginia_Presidential_Election_Results_2020.svg.png


Seems it's just the DC commuter areas driving the change
A lot of suburban neocons/RINO types have jumped ship from the Republican Party at the national level since 2016. Most of the blue counties in 2020 are probably full of Lincoln Project worshippers who of course loved their boy Dubya Bush.

State level is a different story, since they'll probably still be around to elect "real conservatives with principles" to keep voting for corporate welfare and losing with dignity for many years to come since state parties are usually decades behind the trends in national political parties. For instance, Maryland and Massachusetts have state Republican Parties that are extremely left-wing while in a lot of Southern states the state Democrats outside of cities will try and run on being the GOOD Democrats who aren't like the crazy ones in DC. They used to even have honest to god Dixiecrats until relatively recently, but I think by now they all died out (because they're like 80+ years old) or switched to Republicans when they realized the Democrats were going to keep doubling down on Obama and they'd rather vote for Lincoln's party of damnyankees than vote for a negro.
 
It's getting fun reading various articles and op-eds on this race because it's clear the Dems are scared they could lose this. For example it seems the weekly news cycle will be about how passing that bipartisan infrastructure bill will help McAuliffe:

For the past several months, my teenage son has been canvassing for Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe, knocking on hundreds of doors across the Washington, D.C., suburbs. Earlier this fall, the fliers he left on voters’ doorsteps prominently featured McAuliffe and President Joe Biden, hands clasped triumphantly overhead in a show of unity and shared fortune.

Now McAuliffe’s campaign literature shows the barest hint of Biden, as the famously can-do McAuliffe desperately tries to unlink himself from a frustratingly can’t-do Congress and White House. “The president is unpopular today, unfortunately, here in Virginia,” McAuliffe said at a rally earlier this month, as Democrats continue to squabble over a massive social spending bill to “Build Back Better.” Biden, the hoped-for buoy for McAuliffe’s aspiration to retake the office he once held, has become a pair of concrete shoes. Meanwhile, yard signs for McAuliffe’s opponent—the Trump-in-sheep’s-clothing Glenn Youngkin—have been proliferating like toadstools after a summer rain.

To help salvage McAuliffe’s chances against the private equity executive Youngkin—whom polls show is running an uncomfortably close race—Virginia Senator Mark Warner has floated the idea of re-upping the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill (the “BIF”) passed by the Senate this summer but yet to clear the House. Right now, it’s being held hostage by progressives who insist that its passage be linked to the much bigger Build Back Better Act—a move the White House has blessed. Decoupling the BIF would be a Hail Mary move, but McAuliffe’s situation is dire enough that it might be worth trying again. If liberals drop their objections, the BIF has enough bipartisan support to pass the House easily.

As much as McAuliffe has tried to distance himself from Biden, the Virginia governor’s race has become a referendum on the president’s performance as well as that of all Democrats. McAuliffe, who had to leave office in 2018 because of the Commonwealth’s weird no-consecutive-gubernatorial-terms rule—badly needs to show that the Biden era is nothing like the chaotic Trump years. But it’s exceedingly unlikely that Democrats’ social spending plan will be ready by November 2, despite recent progress in the negotiations. Intraparty hostilities have only escalated in recent days, with progressives and moderates clashing over health care, climate, and taxes (as well as just about everything else). Though both sides are now trying to make their peace, many details remain to be hashed out.

The bipartisan infrastructure bill, however, is already a win. It sailed through the Senate 69–30 in early August (including with a yes from Minority Leader Mitch McConnell), and has the support of business groups such as the Business Roundtable and the Chamber of Commerce. Assuming this support hasn’t evaporated, final passage of the bill would give McAuliffe something to tout, which he knows he very much needs. “We’re tired of the chitty-chat up in Washington. Get in a room and get this figured out,” the famously indefatigable McAuliffe told CNN earlier this month. “They’re paid to get . . . this done, and the frustration is, why isn’t it done by now? Sixty-nine votes in the Senate two months ago, get it done this week.” By blocking the bill, liberals are stopping a vote on something that is hugely popular and can’t be assailed by Republicans because their leaders support it.

A speedy vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill would not only help the 64-year-old former chair of the Democratic National Committee; it would help all Democrats, whose hold on Congress seems increasingly tenuous as Biden’s approval rating has sagged and a growing number of caucus members announce their retirement in advance of next year’s midterms. Progressive Democrats’ insistence on linking the infrastructure bill with the larger social spending plan, once a point of pride, now seems self-destructive.

First, by delaying the bipartisan infrastructure bill, Democrats are blowing a major legislative achievement. Though Democrats’ top priority is the Build Back Better bill, the bipartisan infrastructure package would pump $550 billion of new spending into the nation’s infrastructure, including historic investments in public transit, electric vehicles, rural broadband, and clean water. According to the White House, its funding for bridges would be the largest “since the construction of the federal highway system.” Passage of the plan would be great for Democrats (not to mention a stick in the eye to Trump, who campaigned on an infrastructure package but never managed to get it done).

Delay is a political liability for the Democratic Party. All Democrats—not just Terry McAuliffe—have relatively little to tout as the midterms approach. “Every single day that we’re consumed by internal debates and internal arguments is a day that we’re not actively selling” Democrats’ achievements, Senator Chris Murphy recently told Politico.

The message and policy vacuum, meanwhile, delights Republicans. Despite the lack of a final bill, the Republican Study Committee has already put out a memo “pre-butting” Build Back Better with spurious attacks, dog whistles, and wild claims of Democrats’ intentions to create “climate police,” raise taxes, and advance “a totalitarian and paternalistic view of the federal government.” Passing a bipartisan infrastructure bill would neutralize these attacks, buying time for Build Back Better negotiations to yield results. (It would also provide a rubbernecking press something else to gawk at besides internecine brawling.)

Unlinking the bills would signal to voters that Democrats in Washington have faith in each other. Remember that progressives’ original rationale for linking the two bills was their lack of confidence that moderates would support a larger spending bill if they got their way on the bipartisan infrastructure plan. “We are not blindly trusting that these bills are going to get done in the Senate, without actually having that be guaranteed,” progressive Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota told the Associated Press in September. This lack of trust, however, sends a terrible message to voters, whose faith in politicians and Congress is already at historic lows: If the Democrats don’t trust each other, why should voters trust the Democrats?

Moderates have shown no indication that they would renege on Build Back Better. For all of his demands and stubbornness, West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin has essentially committed to spending $1.5 trillion, which is not an insignificant sum. The moderate New Democrat Coalition has expressed strong support for the child tax credit, a major progressive priority. If they wanted to put a stake through the heart of Build Back Better, they already would have done it.

A vote on infrastructure now would be a show of faith, party unity, and progress. Hopefully, it won’t be too late for Terry McAuliffe.
It's not just two-bit "journalists" writing this either, CNN has been blasting the message all day. Really shows how badly education is hurting McAuliffe because this is the equivalent of flinging shit at the wall and hoping it sticks long enough to distract.

Youngkin isn't a shoe-in, but he should not be counted out considering the Dems have apparently slid upwards of 10 points statewide:

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Email leaked out of Loudon County. Apparently the school board was told directly about the rapes and lied to everyone. Youngkin is demanding resignations.


The teachers union is in full panic mode now. If Youngkin wins there are going to be criminal prosecutions. It's life and death now for these people.
 
Biden, the hoped-for buoy for McAuliffe’s aspiration to retake the office he once held, has become a pair of concrete shoes.
.:story::story: Imagine being dumb enough to count on Joe Childfucking Biden to get you back into office. I mean holy shit, the guy has no charisma and absolutely nobody likes him unless they put him next to a Republican. Unless this is actually a reference to how the federal government is going to help rig the election for McAuliffe.

In a just world, this guy would get blown the fuck out in a landslide for the ages but instead the only way he'll lose is if the ballot printers in the Beltway get fried on Election Day.
 
I don't think that Youngkin is going to win. The demographic trends aren't working in his favor and he is doing nothing to appeal to anyone who isn't already a Republican. I think that there are a lot of non-whites in Northern Virginia who have socially conservative views on certain issues (troons), but they are such fucking nigger-cattle that they will ignore these views as long as someone reminds them of the big scary orange man and his hu-wite minions.
 
So maybe I missed this and it was covered, but just in case others missed this too:


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“Beth Rae” is Beth Barts, ie the Loudoun school board member who was facing recall and resigned ten days or so ago.

SHE is the one who burned Ziegler and the rest lol. I thought it was a suspiciously speedy FOIA and...maybe it was? But this is the earliest example I can find and god I want to believe...
 
so my wager with @Capsaicin Addict fell through so ill open it up to everyone if mcauliffe wins you give me $1000 and if Youngkin wins you get $1000. If you follow The Peoples pundit, his words basically show im giving you free money. so i hope you take the deal. All the doomposters on kiwifarms surely can't be wrong. any takers let me know.
 
so my wager with @Capsaicin Addict fell through so ill open it up to everyone if mcauliffe wins you give me $1000 and if Youngkin wins you get $1000. If you follow The Peoples pundit, his words basically show im giving you free money. so i hope you take the deal. All the doomposters on kiwifarms surely can't be wrong. any takers let me know.
I would hope not everyone here is as retarded as you, considering that there is an existing betting market on this race and it's currently well under 1:1 for the D (it's actually at about 50% return which means the D is heavily favored) and it's close to 3:1 for the R.

Aside from the fact that there is no system to enforce bets placed on some gay forum (in other words you're just bloviating), you're hogging all the odds for yourself. Ever actually done any book-keeping? If you want to put your money where your mouth is go buy some shares on predictit, faggot.
 
I would hope not everyone here is as exceptional as you, considering that there is an existing betting market on this race and it's currently well under 1:1 for the D (it's actually at about 50% return which means the D is heavily favored) and it's close to 3:1 for the R.

Aside from the fact that there is no system to enforce bets placed on some gay forum (in other words you're just bloviating), you're hogging all the odds for yourself. Ever actually done any book-keeping? If you want to put your money where your mouth is go buy some shares on predictit, faggot.
did you not read my full comment? i almost got one guy. Never open your mouth until you know what the shot is. and dont fuck with other people's shots. one tard was willing to give me triple the market rate ROI. plus both of our reputations on this forum would take a massive hit if we didn't payout.
 
I want Youngkin to win, but I do think McAuliffe has the edge. Northern Virginia will be reporting last. I gaurentee it'll look like Youngkin is winning all night until Fairfax, Loudoun, Falls Church, and Alexandria start reporting. That area literally now controls the rest of the state, which is still heavily red barring a few outliers like Hampton Roads and Charlottesville.

The only reason this race is even in contention is because it's a perfect storm of Biden's popularity in the tank, massive economic inflation, and the Loudoun trans student sexual assault case. (McAuliffe really shot himself in the foot in the immediate aftermath and when it became obvious the school board was covering it up.)

If Youngkin actually does pull out a win, it'll be by the skin of his teeth and/or through being able to use the courts to toss obvious bullshit fraud. It's nowhere near 50/50, but the Democrats are scared shitless that they're losing the recent control they've gained there over the last decade. They're already prepping the narrative that Youngkin will "steal" the election like Bush in 2000.
 
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so my wager with @Capsaicin Addict fell through so ill open it up to everyone if mcauliffe wins you give me $1000 and if Youngkin wins you get $1000. If you follow The Peoples pundit, his words basically show im giving you free money. so i hope you take the deal. All the doomposters on kiwifarms surely can't be wrong. any takers let me know.
Cool idea, but I have a better one: if the sun comes up tomorrow you give me $1000 and if the sun doesn't come up tomorrow I give you $1000. It's a fair 50/50 bet.
I give Youngkin a 50/50 chance as it is currently. Wildcards are potential increased GOP turnout and Democrat "election fortification" measures.
Optimistic. I don't think that GOP turnout would be enough to counter the sheer weight of Northern Virginia's population.
 
Cool idea, but I have a better one: if the sun comes up tomorrow you give me $1000 and if the sun doesn't come up tomorrow I give you $1000. It's a fair 50/50 bet.

Optimistic. I don't think that GOP turnout would be enough to counter the sheer weight of Northern Virginia's population.
NOVA's population on it's own isn't the problem in this specific election, it's all the ballot boxes delivered in the dead of night after all the other counties in the state finished counting their votes. This is what "election fortification" is code for. That said, the fact that the democrats only chance to win in VA is by electoral fraud is very telling about their chances in the upcoming mid-terms.
 
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