2021 Virginia State election - Federal Beaurocracy and National Establishment vs. Everyone else.

It's getting fun reading various articles and op-eds on this race because it's clear the Dems are scared they could lose this. For example it seems the weekly news cycle will be about how passing that bipartisan infrastructure bill will help McAuliffe:
Yeah, the Dems losing is a genuine concern. McAuliffe is the weakest candidate they've had who actually got elected governor in Virginia in recent years. Warner, Kaine, and Northam all got elected with what was at the time over 50% of the vote and by a fairly comfortable percentage margin when the dust settled, while McAuliffe got elected with 47.7% of people who voted, and had the narrowest margin against his opponent. Virginia's simply still a very heavily republican state, with the last Republican governor being elected in 2009(with this being only the third governor election since then). Personally I don't think they'll lose, but their fears are definitely a valid possibility.

I don't think that Youngkin is going to win. The demographic trends aren't working in his favor and he is doing nothing to appeal to anyone who isn't already a Republican.
The thing is, he doesn't necessarily need to appeal to more than Republicans in order to win it. He's more or less managed to go anti-mandate for protective measures against covid without going full anti-vax nutjob, and has done a lot of tap dancing to avoid pissing off Trump supporters without going full Trump cocksucker. That'll do a decent job of getting him both Trump supporters, and more traditional republicans. Which is rather important as the "fuck Trump" republicans were part of why Biden did so well in the state. That still leaves it the Democrat's race to lose, but that means they have to get their own base out and voting, and ideally independents on board as well. Which they've been working hard to blow given McAuliffe's comparative lack of popularity among their base and school board related controversies.

“Beth Rae” is Beth Barts, ie the Loudoun school board member who was facing recall and resigned ten days or so ago.

SHE is the one who burned Ziegler and the rest lol. I thought it was a suspiciously speedy FOIA and...maybe it was? But this is the earliest example I can find and god I want to believe...
I guess this would be described as "refusing to go down alone and be the scapegoat". Makes a certain amount of sense. If others were in on it and get slammed for it as well, it's potentially less lasting damage to her own reputation.

and the Loudoun trans student sexual assault case. (McAuliffe really shot himself in the foot in the immediate aftermath and when it became obvious the school board was covering it up.)
I think you've got the order wrong, unless you're referring to something McAuliffe said that I'm unaware of. The general order of events was first the Fairfax County school board incident with the obscene books in late September. Which let Youngkin bring up that and that McAuliffe had vetoed bills requiring parents be notified of any sexual explicit material in a class's curriculum. At which point McAuliffe shot himself in the foot by not only saying he didn't think parents should be able to veto books like the bills would have allowed, but go one further with his “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” gaff which was going to sound horrible to basically any parent. It was a few days later as Youngkin was gearing up to hit McAuliffe over that remark, that the news broke about that the Loudoun County school board had been covering up that a genderfluid boy had raped a girl in the girl's bathroom. McAuliffe as far as I know has been laying low on the subject of the Loudoun incident since then. Which isn't really good, but I wouldn't call it shooting himself in the foot either.
 
The thing is, he doesn't necessarily need to appeal to more than Republicans in order to win it. He's more or less managed to go anti-mandate for protective measures against covid without going full anti-vax nutjob, and has done a lot of tap dancing to avoid pissing off Trump supporters without going full Trump cocksucker. That'll do a decent job of getting him both Trump supporters, and more traditional republicans. Which is rather important as the "fuck Trump" republicans were part of why Biden did so well in the state. That still leaves it the Democrat's race to lose, but that means they have to get their own base out and voting, and ideally independents on board as well. Which they've been working hard to blow given McAuliffe's comparative lack of popularity among their base and school board related controversies.
I don't really see why this 'Fuck Trump Republican' demographic is going to vote for Youngkin and I don't think they are a major factor in terms of numbers. I also do not believe that numbers will work in Youngkin's favor if plans to win with just white republicans. There are too many non-whites living in Northern Virginia for that to happen.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Justa Grata Honoria
I don't really see why this 'Fuck Trump Republican' demographic is going to vote for Youngkin and I don't think they are a major factor in terms of numbers. I also do not believe that numbers will work in Youngkin's favor if plans to win with just white republicans. There are too many non-whites living in Northern Virginia for that to happen.
They're the people who voted Biden while being happy to re-elect their other republican representatives. So they aren't going to be unwilling to vote for a more traditional Republican. I think Northern Virginia will still carry things for McAuliffe regardless of white or non-white, but that depends on him getting them out to vote. Which is easier said than done when he's got multiple recent controversies in the area, and his opponent has largely avoided major pitfalls of his own that would help McAuliffe scare his supporters into getting out to the polls.

In other words, if Youngkin succeeds in getting the Republicans out to vote for him while McAuliife fucks up hard enough, then just the Republicans might be enough for Youngkin.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Justa Grata Honoria
That still leaves it the Democrat's race to lose, but that means they have to get their own base out and voting, and ideally independents on board as well. Which they've been working hard to blow given McAuliffe's comparative lack of popularity among their base and school board related controversies.
If the Dems lose this will be the reason why. I've seen some very lethargic early voting totals thrown around so far which are a good indication of poor enthusiasm. Media groups and McAuliffe's campaign can argue these numbers are expected, however Dems are supposed to drive early voting numbers given the flakiness of their voting base. Plus when Virginia is a mail-in on request only state (IIRC) it makes it very hard to think of this as anything but a red flag.

Youngkin has been quite shrewd in balancing between RINO fencesitter and Trump supporter because it's taken away the only real source of traction for McAuliffe. Unlike Elder there's no orange boogeyman to fearmonger with here, and Youngkin has not said anything the Dems can scream at him over (like his pro-life beliefs, surprised that hasn't popped up in national media yet).

As you say it's your quintessential turnout game. Dems fail in getting enough of their base out and they'll lose. I wouldn't bet hard on it, but this one is a legitimate tossup and could come down to how prepared the Virginia Republicans are to thwarting 4am ballot drops.
 
I'm not a Virginian and have never lived in Virginia (although I have visited). I'm saying this up front because I don't have a dog in this fight and I'm not taking a hard stance on who will win because of it. I'm merely going to point out I found two things interesting.

This article about Obama's recent remarks on the Loudon fiasco has links to multiple Twitter comments and I found the overwhelming bulk of the comments were extremely outraged. Several of the commenters claim to be Virginians. I do not personally know how Virginians feel about Obama and can't even begin to guess, but there's some seriously pissed Twitter users who do not like Obama calling the Loudon rapes 'phony culture war' nonsense.

As I pointed out before the Democrats believe the sluggishness of the USPS is going to disenfranchise their voters and are suing the organization.

If Youngkin wins it will be because there are a bunch of freaked out suburban Karens and their soyboys who might normally vote D, but maybe aren't willing to risk having their children raped. Again, I'm a total outsider, but to me this seems to be almost entirely a referendum on what's going on in Virginia's schools, and the developments of the last few days make things look... pretty damning.

Feel free to explain why it won't matter because they'll just make ballot printer go brrrr on the day of the election.
 
As you say it's your quintessential turnout game. Dems fail in getting enough of their base out and they'll lose. I wouldn't bet hard on it, but this one is a legitimate tossup and could come down to how prepared the Virginia Republicans are to thwarting 4am ballot drops.

The local Republican party (mainly Project Virginia) has gone hard on preventing this crap with training and setting up poll watchers, getting at least a warm body at every local rep district, getting people involved in polling sites, and an army of lawyers ready to sue if anything looks weird. Case in point:

Lawsuit Filed Against Fairfax County over Absentee and Mail-In Ballots
An election integrity group has filed a lawsuit and motion for an injunction against members of the Fairfax County Board of Elections and the Fairfax County General Registrar.

“The case is brought on behalf of the Virginia Institute for Public Policy, a local organization that promotes election integrity,” the Public Interest Legal Foundation (PILF) said in a press release. “The lawsuit explains that Fairfax County is violating Virginia law by accepting and approving applications for absentee and mail-in ballots that do not include the last four digits of the applicant’s Social Security number, as required under Virginia statues [sic].”

Early voting began in Virginia on September 18, and Election Day is November 2, raising the question of whether this issue will be resolved before Election Day.

“It is highly likely that our motion will be heard next week, but there is no guarantee,” PILF’s Director of Media Affairs Lauren Bowman told The Virginia Star, adding that the number of absentee ballots already cast in Virginia is “significant.”

Bowman also said that the attempt to remove social security numbers from ballots is a left-wing attempt that weakens election integrity.

“The left clearly is pushing back against any sort of unique identifier to prove you are who say [sic] you are when voting,” she said. “They don’t like voter ID, now social security numbers, or even driver’s license numbers. Fairfax County needs to follow Virginia law. They cannot change the rules in the middle of an election.”

PILF says that not only is Fairfax County violating state law, but that it is also violating the Virginia Constitution.

“The Constitution’s Anti-Suspension Clause requires that laws passed by the Virginia’s legislature are supreme to any act by a local government employee or even the Governor himself,” the press release said. “This is important because it restrains election officials in Virginia from disregarding and replacing election administration laws.”

This is not the first measure taken in Fairfax County that could be viewed as a blow to election integrity.

In mid-October, the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors asked Gov. Ralph Northam (D) to allow them to waive the witness signature requirement for absentee ballots. Their rationale was that close contact between witnesses and absentee voters could contribute to the spread of COVID-19.

At the time of this writing, Northam has apparently not granted or denied the request.
 
The local Republican party (mainly Project Virginia) has gone hard on preventing this crap with training and setting up poll watchers, getting at least a warm body at every local rep district, getting people involved in polling sites, and an army of lawyers ready to sue if anything looks weird.
That's a breath of fresh air. I thought the GOP had given up on the state when they didn't even try to run candidates in some districts.
 
I would like for a Youngkin upset ... In fact, I would love it. In these recent weeks, we are seeing evidence of low enthusiasm among Dem voters, and it clearly has the Dems worried. The fact that McAwful keeps bringing up how Georgia was "stolen" from that fat idiotic bitch back in 2018 is kind of proof to me that there's definitely at least some worry within the DNC right now and that they're covering their bases with the narrative on whatever the outcome is.

I'm not going to hold my breath for a Youngkin upset, though. I'm not going to get my hopes up. Mail-in voting is still a problem, and it's a gigantic red flag that they're already announcing how Fairfax is closing their polls later on election day.

I believe that this election is genuinely up in the air at this point ... Which I guess is a good thing considering how Virginia has been trending blue over the past few election cycles.
 
Again, I'm a total outsider, but to me this seems to be almost entirely a referendum on what's going on in Virginia's schools
That's pretty much what the Republicans are hoping to make it. The less than impressive handling of covid left a lot of people generally frustrated and disillusioned with the school system, making that an area of weak confidence for the Democrats at the moment. Making this really not a good time for the Democrats to be pursuing issues like "equity" that are difficult to explain to the voters without effectively accusing some of them of being racist for being oblivious to racial issues or disparities. Which of course the Democrats have been pursuing in some places, with predictable backlash. That's compounded by the recent incidents in Fairfax and Loudoun. It's really not a good look for Democrats when McAuliffe vetoed bills about informing parents of sexually explicit material in curriculum, then a few years later parents discover that high school libraries have some books with content obscene enough that the school board refuses to let it be read aloud/shown at a public board meeting. Similarly it's really bad for them to have been pushing transgender bathroom policies that parents are clearly taking as "let boys use the girl's bathroom", while covering up that a skirt wearing boy had recently raped a girl in the girls bathroom which is pretty much precisely the thing that parents were fearing.

So regardless of whether or not the Republicans have actually good ideas about what to do with the school system, or really mean some of the things that they say; it's a really good area for them to be hammering the Democrats over in Virginia right now. The Democrats basically can't dismiss some of the more ridiculous Republican accusations without seeming to dismiss valid concerns over obscene material and student safety. At the same time, the Democrats don't really have any popular school policies to push as a counter balance.

Can't a Grand Jury indict them anytime it wants?
They'd need prosecutors to press charges to indict. In this case I believe the one who would need to do so would be the Attorney General Mark Herring. Who was the first Democrat elected AG in Virginia in 20 years, and is currently up for re-election. Risking pissing off his base by going after the Loudoun County school board right now is probably not on his list of things to do. He also likely generally agrees with the school boards goals, and would be disinclined to go after them anyways.
 
Last edited:
That's pretty much what the Republicans are hoping to make it. The less than impressive handling of covid left a lot of people generally frustrated and disillusioned with the school system, making that an area of weak confidence for the Democrats at the moment. Making this really not a good time for the Democrats to be pursuing issues like "equity" that are difficult to explain to the voters without effectively accusing some of them of being racist for being oblivious to racial issues or disparities. Which of course the Democrats have been pursuing in some places, with predictable backlash. That's compounded by the recent incidents in Fairfax and Loudoun. It's really not a good look for Democrats when McAuliffe vetoed bills about informing parents of sexually explicit material in curriculum, then a few years later parents discover that high school libraries have some books with content obscene enough that the school board refuses to let it be read aloud/shown at a public board meeting. Similarly it's really bad for them to have been pushing transgender bathroom policies that parents are clearly taking as "let boys use the girl's bathroom", while covering up that a skirt wearing boy had recently raped a girl in the girls bathroom which is pretty much precisely the thing that parents were fearing.

So regardless of whether or not the Republicans have actually good ideas about what to do with the school system, or really mean some of the things that they say; it's a really good area for them to be hammering the Democrats over in Virginia right now. The Democrats basically can't dismiss some of the more ridiculous Republican accusations without seeming to dismiss valid concerns over obscene material and student safety. At the same time, the Democrats don't really have any popular school policies to push as a counter balance.


They'd need prosecutors to press charges to indict. In this case I believe the one who would need to do so would be the Attorney General Mark Herring. Who was the first Democrat elected AG in Virginia in 20 years, and is currently up for re-election. Risking pissing off his base by going after the Loudoun County school board right now is probably not on his list of things to do. He also likely generally agrees with the school boards goals, and would be disinclined to go after them anyways.
Accessory after the fact to rape. What jury wouldn't agree?
 
The Fairfax situation might not be so bad. They are reporting "late" because they are waiting to round up all the precincts and reporting them at once. But the mail-in/early voting will be reported first.

And mail-in votes so far have been not very high. That cuts into how much fraud they can actually do (and unlike California, they have to REQUEST a mail-in ballot to get one).
 
fiddd.png

FCuzk4jXIAY1gMN.jpg



Trump the hero comes along to torpedo the marginal hope Youngkin had of winning.


Twitter thread
Archive
 
View attachment 2664566
View attachment 2664569


Trump the hero comes along to torpedo the marginal hope Youngkin had of winning.


Twitter thread
Archive
Matt Walsh is a faggot Trump countersignaler who is jumping to conclusions. He virtue signaled about the "send her back" chant about Ilhan Omar in a Trump rally that Trump didn't even start, defended Ahmaud Arbery like a cuck only to lambast Trump a couple months later for not sending fictional right wing death squads to execute BLM thugs in the streets. He was one of those who said that Trump appointing conservative judges was one of the only good things about Trump, only to bash Trump for ACB turning out as cucky as Matt Walsh (which he didn't speak out against during her nomination).
 
View attachment 2664566
View attachment 2664569


Trump the hero comes along to torpedo the marginal hope Youngkin had of winning.


Twitter thread
Archive
It makes sense for Trump to show up. If he doesn't and they manage to win even by the slimmest margins it will set the "see! Trump caused us to lose!' in stone. If he shows up and Youngkin loses the fire is still burning about CRT and the like. If he shows up and Youngkin wins then Trump can come out swinging. A republican win is a symbolic victory as the dems have the state congress locked up.
 
It makes sense for Trump to show up. If he doesn't and they manage to win even by the slimmest margins it will set the "see! Trump caused us to lose!' in stone. If he shows up and Youngkin loses the fire is still burning about CRT and the like. If he shows up and Youngkin wins then Trump can come out swinging. A republican win is a symbolic victory as the dems have the state congress locked up.
A vote is a vote.
 
Army of poll watchers — many driven by GOP’s ‘election integrity’ push — turns out across Virginia
(Archive)

(Yes, I noticed that you put "election integrity" in snark quotes, because you can't stand even the slightest touch of scrutiny. Blow me, whorenalists) -Meat
Loudoun County General Registrar Judy Brown doesn’t recall seeing many poll watchers during early voting last year — they usually turn up only on Election Day, primarily during presidential elections.

But that’s changed.

“This year,” she said, “we have had poll watchers here every day, all day long, watching the process of what’s going on.”

And in a county that has been trending blue for years, more poll watchers are wearing Republican badges, Brown said, often outnumbering Democrats 2 to 1 at each location. They observe the voter check-in and the ballot drop boxes. They have asked to observe election officers opening voting equipment. They watch as election officers report the vote tallies at the end of the night and ensure slates are blank when the polls open in the morning.

“I really think it’s a result of all the stuff in the news media about there being fraud in the election process last year,” Brown said. “They can come to the same conclusion as we do: that there is no fraud in the process.”

Across Virginia, the GOP “election integrity” push has largely driven the influx of election observers in this year’s gubernatorial race, according to local, state and national Republican officials. In some trainings, prospective poll watchers have been taught to see themselves as a bulwark against election fraud, and some groups have been corralling their own poll watcher armies.

But while multiple registrars said they welcomed the poll watchers’ commitment to transparency, some tactics have made election officials uneasy — because it’s clear former President Donald Trump’s claims of mass voter fraud have driven a lot of the interest, said Fairfax County General Registrar Scott Konopasek. It’s created a sense among some staff members that the observers don’t trust them, he said.


“Virginians have no reason to doubt the integrity of any of the elections they voted in,” Konopasek said. “There is no lack of integrity. But there is a narrative that says there is, and that’s what they’re responding to.”

Poll watchers, or election observers, are distinct from election officers in that they are not allowed to assist voters in the polling place. As their names suggest, they only watch, while reporting any issues to election officers who can resolve them, or to party officials. Poll watchers are authorized by political parties or candidates, and up to three from each party can be in the room to watch the election unfold.

Numerous GOP officials described the poll watcher trainings as a branch extending from election integrity efforts — something Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin has seized on as a core tenet of his campaign, calling for an audit of Virginia voting machines and repeatedly encouraging poll watchers to volunteer. His campaign, which did not respond to multiple requests for comment, invites people to join an “election integrity task force,” while hosting poll watcher trainings across the state.

On the national level, the Republican National Committee, which developed an election integrity unit during the 2020 race, has since expanded the program in 12 battleground states. This year, according to a spokeswoman, it’s trained 3,500 prospective poll watchers in Virginia — where the country’s only competitive gubernatorial election is taking place next week.

And on the local level, GOP committees have developed their own “election integrity subcommittees” to review voter rolls and their local registrars’ election practices — efforts that local GOP officials said have provided avenues for hundreds of volunteers to get involved in the election through poll watching or becoming sworn election officers.

Steve Knotts, chairman of the Fairfax County Republican Committee, said that he did not believe voter fraud was a problem in Virginia, but that many members of his group still have voter fraud fears and have been galvanized by the rhetoric of the past year to want to find out for themselves.

Poll watching, Knotts said, is a “hands-on” way for those with questions to get them answered. He said 500 to 600 people have signed up, ascribing the influx of volunteers to concerns about election integrity and enthusiasm for Youngkin.

“Their job is to see anything that looks irregular and point it out. We’re not there trying to trap anybody or cause a disruption — it’s just to watch the process,” he said.

On a Tuesday evening early this month, streams of prospective poll watchers filed into an American Legion outpost in Arlington, gathering at tables in a room blanketed by stale cigarette smoke for the latest GOP training event. Most trainees did not agree to an interview, but one, Jose Galdos, said he signed up because “I just feel like the integrity of our elections is slipping.”


Galdos, who immigrated to Virginia from Bolivia as a child, said that while he was concerned about election integrity, he did not believe Trump’s claims of a stolen election. He saw his job as a poll watcher as a way to “just keep people honest,” watching out for easily fixable mistakes.

State and local GOP representatives would not allow a Washington Post reporter to observe the training, which was organized by the Youngkin campaign and state GOP and led by Clara Belle Wheeler, a former Virginia Board of Elections member who advocates for stricter voting laws at the Virginia Institute for Public Policy. But a similar video training offered by Wheeler at the “Virginia Election Integrity Summit” in Richmond in August is available online through the conservative Leadership Institute.

“Poll watchers are what they used to say about small children: They should be seen and not heard,” Wheeler told the crowd in the video, urging them to take notes and report any observable problems — not intervene themselves.

Wheeler offered pointers on what to watch for: voting tallies that don’t match the number of voters checked in that day; anyone trying to influence voters; unauthorized people touching voting machines.

At the end of Wheeler’s presentation, a PowerPoint slide told the trainees that election officers and poll watchers are the main “line of defense against election fraud. Both need to know how to stop fraud and what to do if it does occur.”

“You’ve all got to be out there. You’re the front line of defense. We need 15,000,” Wheeler said.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Justa Grata Honoria
Back