Global Supply Chain Crisis 2021: Megathread - A cozy thread for watching the supply chain fall apart just in time for the holidays

Should the title be re-worded to expand the scope of the thread?

  • The US Trucking Crisis of 2021 works fine

    Votes: 25 9.4%
  • The US Logistics Crisis of 2021

    Votes: 30 11.2%
  • The US Transportation Crisis of 2021

    Votes: 7 2.6%
  • The US Supply Chain Crisis of 2021

    Votes: 35 13.1%
  • Global Supply Chain Crisis 2021

    Votes: 206 77.2%

  • Total voters
    267
  • Poll closed .
Yep. I worked for over 10 years at one of the big 3.

My first almost 8 years, we did EVERYTHING in house: Pick and pack. Engine line. IP line. Paint shop, Stamping, final... I worked every department.

Then I was in Materials...

And they decided KANBAN!! WOO, Just in time!! Holy shit, what a clusterFUCK. Wanna guarantee the line stops multiple times? Kanban. Wanna get into multiple shouting matches/fistfights with everybody? Kanban. Wanna do the same, but on the assembly line? Team Concept and Kanban.

I had hoped Trump was a course correction towards eliminating this stupid shit that is not only incompatible with our culture, but incompatible with a well run and efficient business.

Let's. Go. Brandon.

I never once seen these Agile concepts actually deliver on their promise of "faster results, less work". All it does is gum up the works with unnecessary overheads due to everyone forgetting that long-term plans are still needed, and going from sprint to sprint is a good way to get scope creep and sloppy work because everyone's focussed on delivering only MVP.
In defense of lean manufacturing. I work in an industry where we go from raw materials to finished products. However at a certain point you have to accept that you can’t do something in house. We are not going to set up a smelter to turn raw ore into refined metals on site. That being said we are probably one of the only places in my industry that goes from raw metal (and our product is made of multiple metals and chemicals) to finished product all under one roof.
 
I never once seen these Agile concepts actually deliver on their promise of "faster results, less work". All it does is gum up the works with unnecessary overheads due to everyone forgetting that long-term plans are still needed, and going from sprint to sprint is a good way to get scope creep and sloppy work because everyone's focussed on delivering only MVP.
That's because it's a horrible combination of misunderstood meme and never-been-done-properly. Like good old-fashioned communism, you know?

Agile is meant to introduce a regular cadence of activity into a team. That's it. It's a set of rituals (essentially) that keep a team from getting bogged down in shit. The problem with agile is everything else that people have added to it, every stupid twiddle and bit of jargon and rtualised dance, all of which work against the idea of maintaining progress. As it stands, in all its memetic glory, it's no longer fit for purpose.
 
That's because it's a horrible combination of misunderstood meme and never-been-done-properly. Like good old-fashioned communism, you know?

Agile is meant to introduce a regular cadence of activity into a team. That's it. It's a set of rituals (essentially) that keep a team from getting bogged down in shit. The problem with agile is everything else that people have added to it, every stupid twiddle and bit of jargon and rtualised dance, all of which work against the idea of maintaining progress. As it stands, in all its memetic glory, it's no longer fit for purpose.
It’s just like JIT manufacturing. It’s a great idea but requires your purchasing dept to have a VERY accurate finger on the pulse of your supplier markets and be willing to stand up and change the amount kept on hand based on market conditions. I think someone in this thread mentioned that almost a year ago Toyota, the inventor of JIT started stockpiling microchips and other parts they forecasted were going to be in short supply. The people who are getting screwed are the ones who thought JIT meant just pushing input inventory off on to the suppliers.
 
I'm still catching up on the thread but wanted to comment on this.

No, they use them because it works and has a high degree of reliability. Its become quite a problem because these ancient systems have literally no replacement parts so when a circuit board goes down when rebooted it requires the military to send people rooting through literal trash piles at E-recycle places and browsing Ebay or Craigslist for the off chance someone is selling a 1979 Xtrovac Plus Plus Model B.
I can verify that this is the truth.

There are also plenty of equipment whose operating systems run off of casette tapes. I admire the might of machinery and engineering, especially that of the military, but my god is it frightening to know how easily they fail and how much money is wasted on them.
 
It’s just like JIT manufacturing. It’s a great idea but requires your purchasing dept to have a VERY accurate finger on the pulse of your supplier markets and be willing to stand up and change the amount kept on hand based on market conditions. I think someone in this thread mentioned that almost a year ago Toyota, the inventor of JIT started stockpiling microchips and other parts they forecasted were going to be in short supply.
Toyota (should have) already learned that lesson with the semiconductor shortage after the 2011 earthquake/tsunami.
 
That's probably like asking "Why didn't you hire blacksmiths to make the spare parts?".
Well a few decades ago every decently sized operation had a machine shop and could whip up a 1 off part on a lathe or bridgeport mill.

There are multiple FPGA replacements for the SID chips, and there's at least one modern replacement for both the PLA and VIC chips that I know of.
The one I found used fpga's made by Altera who doesn't exist anymore. And when they did the chips where made in Korea. Successor seems to be made by TSMC... So same overseas supply chain threats as anything else.

If Commodore was still around today they wouldn't have these supply chain problems because they owned their own FAB.
 
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Those ancient computers are a liability in their own way because there is just zero replacement parts for when they fail.
This is why governments horde old equipment. I remember an article I read where some tinkerer made a CF to IDE adapter that works with IBM PCs, and would up making a bundle when the US government started ordering pallets of the things to change over all the IBM mainframe PCs running their nuke silos to solid state storage following a shortage of the 8" hard drives they used to run on.

All the fucking money they spend when they could have ordered a manufacturer to create a compatible modern solution that they could then buy tons of. This "let the private industry do it all" behavior is the same reason we cant get spare parts for our A-10s FFS.
i always thought the point of those computers is that they are impossible to hack, since they dont connect to the internet or have any wireless connectability at all
maybe when they fail, they'll be replaced with lates 80's commodore computers?
LOL impossible to hack. Those OSes are about as secure as a bike lock, they are beyond trivial to get into. The hard part is getting access to the internal network.

File permissions? Security protocols? Fuck those things didnt EXIST back then.
It’s just like JIT manufacturing. It’s a great idea but requires your purchasing dept to have a VERY accurate finger on the pulse of your supplier markets and be willing to stand up and change the amount kept on hand based on market conditions. I think someone in this thread mentioned that almost a year ago Toyota, the inventor of JIT started stockpiling microchips and other parts they forecasted were going to be in short supply. The people who are getting screwed are the ones who thought JIT meant just pushing input inventory off on to the suppliers.
Toyota's original implementation of JIT was to eliminate EXCESS inventory that was unneeded. The west took this to mean eliminate ALL inventory, which is retarded. As a result toyota was the only company that A) had a stockpile in case of supply chain disruption and B) was the only company that saw the tea leaves and didnt cut orders for chips in 2020.
 
Just-in-time, Agile, and lots of other business concepts actually do exist as well thought-out frameworks you can operate under. The problem is that they get cargo-culted by retarded MBAs and managers who want FAST, GOOD RESULT. If you take a team and tell them "you have to do standups now, it's agile!" they're just going to lose 30 minutes out of each day and grow to hate you more. If you take your warehouse and say "WE'RE TOYOTA NOW, NO MORE INVENTORY ON SHELVES!" then you're going to save money every day except the one that your shop is down for 5 hours due to a shortage, which wipes out all your savings + a lot more.

The JIT thing in particular is very well-founded, which makes it more frustrating that retards coopt it and then get fucked and make it look bad. Every spare part on your shelves represents money your company spent that isn't generating profits, plus the cost of renting space to store it. Every piece of work that's partially complete represents money from materials AND work that isn't generating profits, and when you add up all the work-hours and inputs this can really stack up. The key is that you can't look at this and say it's just all bad, get rid of it, totally lean. You have to also weigh the risk of having a work-stopping event due to shortage of something, the impact of that, and the cost of keeping some inventory on hand. Don't keep a week's worth of parts in your warehouse, but maybe keep half a day's worth?

You could do some fancy math and probably come up with a balance point where cutting more inventory doesn't outweigh the value it holds in insulating you from the risk of running out. Put it on a powerpoint, send it to your boss, profit. Although if your boss is stupid enough to latch onto every new idea they read in this month's copy of Faggots Illustrated, they probably won't listen.
 
3 hours vs. 8+ hours (assuming the common leave it cooking while at work scenario) . Stove/oven cooks faster than a crockpot.*

Generally you shouldn’t allow meat to simmer longer than about 5 hours, as that’s when it starts to really break down and the flavor of the meat will start to become exhausted, that is, the liquid has all the flavor and the meat begins losing flavor. If you were to cook it long enough (probably days), it will eventually turn into a big pile of mush.

Crockpot stuff is edible. I’ve had it before, but the flavor and texture you can get from oven-stewing is superior.

There’s more. With an oven you can choose your vessel. You can cook multiple things at the same time. You can take stuff out of the pot or throw stuff in, change the temperature, fire it on the stove to make a sauce, etc. Basically once you start doing anything advanced the restrictions of a crockpot outweigh any conveniences.

*This may actually be due to lower voltage in the US (see why electric kettles SUCK here), but I’m not sure. It’d be interesting to know if European crockpots cook faster.
Most of the dishes I cook in a crock pot are things where I don't really have the time or desire to babysit a stove/oven for three hours, whereas I can cook chili/pork and kraut/other things during work or while I sleep. But I did not know that about the meat quality breaking down. In that case what you have is a tradeoff between time (longer to cook in the Crock Pot, but it's not active cooking) and quality.
 
The JIT thing in particular is very well-founded, which makes it more frustrating that retards coopt it and then get fucked and make it look bad. Every spare part on your shelves represents money your company spent that isn't generating profits, plus the cost of renting space to store it. Every piece of work that's partially complete represents money from materials AND work that isn't generating profits, and when you add up all the work-hours and inputs this can really stack up. The key is that you can't look at this and say it's just all bad, get rid of it, totally lean. You have to also weigh the risk of having a work-stopping event due to shortage of something, the impact of that, and the cost of keeping some inventory on hand. Don't keep a week's worth of parts in your warehouse, but maybe keep half a day's worth?
In Manufacturing I could agree, but in retail is is absolutely Exceptional.

"Oh shit people decided they really wanted Bacon this weekend and wiped our entire weekend supply out on Friday and the Point of sales systems won't catch up until after the weekend"
"Oh look the customers who can't get bacon are super pissed off now."

In retail "space" would be saved if they more aggressively ditched shit that didn't sell in that store. "DUR HUR WE NEED OUR MEXICAN CHEESE SECTION DESPITE THROWING IT ALL AWAY CAUSE WE SELL 4 OF THEM"
 
Still reading through the thread but felt like this was interesting and relevant and hit some of the same points as other posters were saying.

I have a simple question for every ‘expert’ who thinks they understand the root causes of the shipping crisis:
Why is there only one crane for every 50–100 trucks at every port in America?
No ‘expert’ will answer this question.
I’m a Class A truck driver with experience in nearly every aspect of freight. My experience in the trucking industry of 20 years tells me that nothing is going to change in the shipping industry.
Let’s start with understanding some things about ports. Outside of dedicated port trucking companies, most trucking companies won’t touch shipping containers. There is a reason for that.
Think of going to the port as going to WalMart on Black Friday, but imagine only ONE cashier for thousands of customers. Think about the lines. Except at a port, there are at least THREE lines to get a container in or out. The first line is the ‘in’ gate, where hundreds of trucks daily have to pass through 5–10 available gates. The second line is waiting to pick up your container. The third line is for waiting to get out. For each of these lines the wait time is a minimum of an hour, and I’ve waited up to 8 hours in the first line just to get into the port. Some ports are worse than others, but excessive wait times are not uncommon. It’s a rare day when a driver gets in and out in under two hours. By ‘rare day’, I mean maybe a handful of times a year. Ports don’t even begin to have enough workers to keep the ports fluid, and it doesn’t matter where you are, coastal or inland port, union or non-union port, it’s the same everywhere.
Furthermore, I’m fortunate enough to be a Teamster — a union driver — an employee paid by the hour. Most port drivers are ‘independent contractors’, leased onto a carrier who is paying them by the load. Whether their load takes two hours, fourteen hours, or three days to complete, they get paid the same, and they have to pay 90% of their truck operating expenses (the carrier might pay the other 10%, but usually less.) The rates paid to non-union drivers for shipping container transport are usually extremely low. In a majority of cases, these drivers don’t come close to my union wages. They pay for all their own repairs and fuel, and all truck related expenses. I honestly don’t understand how many of them can even afford to show up for work. There’s no guarantee of ANY wage (not even minimum wage), and in many cases, these drivers make far below minimum wage. In some cases they work 70 hour weeks and still end up owing money to their carrier.
So when the coastal ports started getting clogged up last spring due to the impacts of COVID on business everywhere, drivers started refusing to show up. Congestion got so bad that instead of being able to do three loads a day, they could only do one. They took a 2/3 pay cut and most of these drivers were working 12 hours a day or more. While carriers were charging increased pandemic shipping rates, none of those rate increases went to the driver wages. Many drivers simply quit. However, while the pickup rate for containers severely decreased, they were still being offloaded from the boats. And it’s only gotten worse.
Earlier this summer, both BNSF and Union Pacific Railways shut down their container yards in the Chicago area for a week for inbound containers. These are some of the busiest ports in the country. They had miles upon miles of stack (container) trains waiting to get in to be unloaded. According to BNSF, containers were sitting in the port 1/3 longer than usual, and they simply ran out of space to put them until some of the ones already on the ground had been picked up. Though they did reopen the area ports, they are still over capacity. Stack trains are still sitting loaded, all over the country, waiting to get into a port to unload. And they have to be unloaded, there is a finite number of railcars. Equipment shortages are a large part of this problem.
One of these critical shortages is the container chassis.
A container chassis is the trailer the container sits on. Cranes will load these in port. Chassis are typically container company provided, as trucking companies generally don’t have their own chassis units. They are essential for container trucking. While there are some privately owned chassis, there aren’t enough of those to begin to address the backlog of containers today, and now drivers are sitting around for hours, sometimes days, waiting for chassis.
The impact of the container crisis now hitting residencies in proximity to trucking companies. Containers are being pulled out of the port and dropped anywhere the drivers can find because the trucking company lots are full. Ports are desperate to get containers out so they can unload the new containers coming in by boat. When this happens there is no plan to deliver this freight yet, they are literally just making room for the next ship at the port. This won’t last long, as this just compounds the shortage of chassis. Ports will eventually find themselves unable to move containers out of the port until sitting containers are delivered, emptied, returned, or taken to a storage lot (either loaded or empty) and taken off the chassis there so the chassis can be put back into use. The priority is not delivery, the priority is just to clear the port enough to unload the next boat.
What happens when a container does get to a warehouse?
A large portion of international containers must be hand unloaded because the products are not on pallets. It takes a working crew a considerable amount of time to do this, and warehouse work is usually low wage. A lot of it is actually only temp staffed. Many full time warehouse workers got laid off when the pandemic started, and didn’t come back. So warehouses, like everybody else, are chronically short staffed.
When the port trucker gets to the warehouse, they have to wait for a door (you’ve probably seen warehouse buildings with a bank of roll-up doors for trucks on one side of the building.) The warehouses are behind schedule, sometimes by weeks. After maybe a 2 hour wait, the driver gets a door and drops the container — but now often has to pick up an empty, and goes back to the port to wait in line all over again to drop off the empty.
At the warehouse, the delivered freight is unloaded, and it is usually separated and bound to pallets, then shipped out in much smaller quantities to final destination. A container that had a couple dozen pallets of goods on it will go out on multiple trailers to multiple different destinations a few pallets at a time.
From personal experience, what used to take me 20–30 minutes to pick up at a warehouse can now take three to four hours. This slowdown is warehouse management related: very few warehouses are open 24 hours, and even if they are, many are so short staffed it doesn’t make much difference, they are so far behind schedule. It means that as a freight driver, I cannot pick up as much freight in a day as I used to, and since I can’t get as much freight on my truck, the whole supply chain is backed up. Freight simply isn’t moving.
It’s important to understand what the cost implications are for consumers with this lack of supply in the supply chain. It’s pure supply and demand economics. Consider volume shipping customers who primarily use ‘general freight’, which is the lowest cost shipping and typically travels in a ‘space available’ fashion. They have usually been able to get their freight moved from origination to delivery within two weeks. Think about how you get your packages from Amazon. Even without paying for Prime, you usually get your stuff in a week. The majority of freight travels at this low cost, ‘no guarantee of delivery date’ way, and for the most part it’s been fine for both shippers and consumers. Those days are coming to an end.
People who want their deliveries in a reasonable time are going to have to start paying premium rates. There will be levels of priority, and each increase in rate premium essentially jumps that freight ahead of all the freight with lower or no premium rates. Unless the lack of shipping infrastructure is resolved, things will back up in a cascading effect to the point where if your products are going general freight, you might wait a month or two for delivery. It’s already starting. If you use truck shipping in any way, you’ve no doubt started to see the delays. Think about what’s going to happen to holiday season shipping.
What is going to compel the shippers and carriers to invest in the needed infrastructure? The owners of these companies can theoretically not change anything and their business will still be at full capacity because of the backlog of containers. The backlog of containers doesn’t hurt them. It hurts anyone paying shipping costs — that is, manufacturers selling products and consumers buying products. But it doesn’t hurt the owners of the transportation business — in fact the laws of supply and demand mean that they are actually going to make more money through higher rates, without changing a thing. They don’t have to improve or add infrastructure (because it’s costly), and they don’t have to pay their workers more (warehouse workers, crane operators, truckers).
The ‘experts’ want to say we can do things like open the ports 24/7, and this problem will be over in a couple weeks. They are blowing smoke, and they know it. Getting a container out of the port, as slow and aggravating as it is, is really the easy part, if you can find a truck and chassis to haul it. But every truck driver in America can’t operate 24/7, even if the government suspends Hours Of Service Regulations (federal regulations determining how many hours a week we can work/drive), we still need to sleep sometime. There are also restrictions on which trucks can go into a port. They have to be approved, have RFID tags, port registered, and the drivers have to have at least a TWIC card (Transportation Worker Identification Credential from the federal Transportation Security Administration). Some ports have additional requirements. As I have already said, most trucking companies won’t touch shipping containers with a 100 foot pole. What we have is a system with a limited amount of trucks and qualified drivers, many of whom are already working 14 hours a day (legally, the maximum they can), and now the supposed fix is to have them work 24 hours a day, every day, and not stop until the backlog is cleared. It’s not going to happen. It is not physically possible. There is no “cavalry” coming. No trucking companies are going to pay to register their trucks to haul containers for something that is supposedly so “short term,” because these same companies can get higher rate loads outside the ports. There is no extra capacity to be had, and it makes NO difference anyway, because If you can’t get a container unloaded at a warehouse, having drivers work 24/7/365 solves nothing.
What it will truly take to fix this problem is to run EVERYTHING 24/7: ports (both coastal and domestic),trucks, and warehouses. We need tens of thousands more chassis, and a much greater capacity in trucking.
Before the pandemic, through the pandemic, and really for the whole history of the freight industry at all levels, owners make their money by having low labor costs — that is, low wages and bare minimum staffing. Many supply chain workers are paid minimum wages, no benefits, and there’s a high rate of turnover because the physical conditions can be brutal (there aren’t even bathrooms for truckers waiting hours at ports because the port owners won’t pay for them. The truckers aren’t port employees and port owners are only legally required to pay for bathroom facilities for their employees. This is a nationwide problem). For the whole supply chain to function efficiently every point has to be working at an equal capacity. Any point that fails bottlenecks the whole system. Right now, it’s ALL failing spectacularly TOGETHER, but fixing one piece won’t do anything. It ALL needs to be fixed, and at the same time.
How do you convince truckers to work when their pay isn’t guaranteed, even to the point where they lose money?
Nobody is compelling the transportation industries to make the needed changes to their infrastructure. There are no laws compelling them to hire the needed workers, or pay them a living wage, or improve working conditions. And nobody is compelling them to buy more container chassis units, more cranes, or more storage space. This is for an industry that literally every business in the world is reliant on in some way or another.
My prediction is that nothing is going to change and the shipping crisis is only going to get worse. Nobody in the supply chain wants to pay to solve the problem. They literally just won’t pay to solve the problem. At the point we are at now, things are so backed up that the backups THEMSELVES are causing container companies, ports, warehouses, and trucking companies to charge massive rate increases for doing literally NOTHING. Container companies have already decreased the maximum allowable times before containers have to be back to the port, and if the congestion is so bad that you can’t get the container back into the port when it is due, the container company can charge massive late fees. The ports themselves will start charging massive storage fees for not getting containers out on time — storage charges alone can run into thousands of dollars a day. Warehouses can charge massive premiums for their services, and so can trucking companies. Chronic understaffing has led to this problem, but it is allowing these same companies to charge ten times more for regular services. Since they’re not paying the workers any more than they did last year or five years ago, the whole industry sits back and cashes in on the mess it created. In fact, the more things are backed up, the more every point of the supply chain cashes in. There is literally NO incentive to change, even if it means consumers have to do holiday shopping in July and pay triple for shipping.
This is the new normal. All brought to you by the ‘experts’ running our supply chains.
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My favorite part of this is the fact that they're getting screwed hard by the Independent Contractor option. Turns out when you try cutting costs by not having staff drivers, those drivers aren't obligated to keep working. Insert the surprised pikachu face here when they realize the deal has gone into the red for them and fuck off immediately and leave the company to clean up the problem.
 
At this point if someone even half-competent, like Trump, was running things, I'd be happy to see the government nationalize the ports, and in accordance with the 5th Amendment of the US Constitution, pay the former owners exactly what a port which does not move goods and only serves to get in the way is worth: nothing. These people deserve unlubricated financial sodomy.
 
At this point if someone even half-competent, like Trump, was running things, I'd be happy to see the government nationalize the ports, and in accordance with the 5th Amendment of the US Constitution, pay the former owners exactly what a port which does not move goods and only serves to get in the way is worth: nothing. These people deserve unlubricated financial sodomy.
Settle down, Vladimir.
 
That old trucker's sperg overlooks something, specifically certain possibilities of terminal failure or "managed decline" or whatever you want to call it. He's sort of assuming that everything will continue balls-to-the-wall and it'll just cost more and take longer, everyone will do their best, and certainly in the short term he seems to be correct.

In in the slightly longer term however, since he says there's essentially nothing to be done about it anyway, nothing that'll take less than several years and tons of investment if it ever gets done at all, I would expect to see a shift to simply having less product capacity overall. That is, less stuff. Less variety of stuff. Less actual manufacturing, translating into less shipping. Think about the abundance of shit we've gotten used to. Every corner has a retail operation stocking a huge variety of products, even in bumfuck towns. There's so much waste, even crappy products don't see use until the end of their (short) service lives.

I think that in the long run, assuming he's right and there's not a practical solution to the keep the wheels of consumption rolling as fast as they used to, there'll just be less stuff. This would also entail a holocaust in retail (and certain affiliates of retail) as they have to pare their operations back and only stock 3 kinds of chinese shirt instead of 10. The JIT and lean systems will probably have to be curtailed and stock warehoused again to keep common goods regularly available - imagine the losses those companies will post on paper (aka the stock market)? Honestly thinking about it makes me feel good but the reality is that this kind of event will probably occur right alongside (or even inseparably from) a massive economic depression... hmm.
 
So, on the supply chain... trouble ahead for Thanksgiving?

Wifey works for a "major mega chain grocery retailer." Comes home from work, I ask "How was your day?"
"Oh my, we never got our truck today. We're out of so much stuff (she's in produce). We're out of chickens, we're out of lots of stuff and everybody is freaking! My boss called two of our sister stores and they didn't get their orders from a couple of days ago yet. Word has it that over 90 warehouse workers called off for their shifts because of the Covid mandates (they're mandating her retail store, too). The store manager gave my boss like $400 in cash and sent him to a (competing grocery chain) to buy cases of bananas, apples, and some other things to make it through the day."

This my friends, is how you bring an end to the mandate bullshit. When peeps can't get their beloved tendies, nuggets, basic bread, produce and dairy, the shit will indeed hit the proverbial fan. And oh, they have no idea if they'll get their truck tomorrow or when it will show up. Most people don't realize that without daily deliveries your typical grocery store is only good for about three to four days with fresh-food inventory.

Stay tuned.
From the biden thread.
 
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