There's several big differences between this and the chauvin trial. For starters, Chauvin had baggage, he was widely regarded as an asshole, and was generally unsympathetic as fuck. No matter what the facts of the case, that video looked bad. Oh, and the literal fucking mob outside the courthouse that gave the jurors a very reasonable impression that the city very well could burn if they didn't charge him.
In this case there is no angry mob, and Rittenhouse himself is more sympathetic. He doesn't have baggage outside of the incident. In fact, any of his prior history actually looks pretty fucking good. Also compared to the guys he shot, Floyd is far more sympathetic a victim. Hell, even with Floyd's criminal record, he still looks way fucking better than the pedo manlet, and skateboard psycho. Fuck even Floyd's fat girlfriend was capable of drumming up more sympathy and emotion than pedobums fat heroin junky ho.
Also the judge in this case seems to be quite a bit more hostile to the prosecution, and hasn't let them make certain outrage claims on the actions of the deceased.
Honestly, I give Kyle pretty good odds of beating it, just because while there is political motivation to get him imprisoned, it's nowhere near the same level as it was for Chauvins trial.