The US dollar is for all practical purposes backed by the US military. All of the dollars being held overseas by US rivals and neutrals as a hedge and a necessity to buy oil will be dumped when we suffer a major military defeat. Such a defeat is inevitable if the white rednecks who make up the most competent killers are purged from our military.
My guess is China will sink a US carrier group, and then intimidate Taiwan into submission or attempt their spin on a color revolution there, as we did in Hong Kong.
With drones it wouldn't take much - Iran could blow up ships in our naval bases in the Arabian peninsula, and strike ground forces until they surrender. Biden left thousands of American hostages in Afghanistan with who knows what sort of intelligence, imagine what Iran could do with tens of thousands of US military hostages.
A major military defeat would not just crash the US economy, it would also embolden succession and revolutionary movements in the USA, which would further distract the US military from overseas affairs. Without the US military protecting them, Taiwan, the various Sunni kingdoms in the Arabian pensinsula, Israel, and probably Egypt are either under siege, cut off from resupply by sea and maybe air, fighting insurgencies, or invaded. This would lead to refugee movements from Israel and the Sunni Kingdoms to Europe and the USA, which would further destabilize them.
Russia would probably invade Ukraine again without the USA, and maybe take a few chunks from neighboring non-NATO states, because you can't join NATO if you don't control all your territory. So there are more refugees.
In the short term, the USA is dealing with a global supply chain crisis due to the lockdowns and nationalist trade policies in China and other nations to which people like Mitt Romney sold our manufacturing base. We're also dealing with a national supply chain crisis because people are quitting rather than get vaccines, and because the lockdowns gave everyone time to figure out off-the-books income and the motivation to never work shit jobs again.
The federal government's refusal to govern well, and inability to delegate what it can't do to those who can (state and local governments), is causing a crisis of legitimacy that will have one of three outcomes:
- States secede from the union and form their own unitary states.
- States form a parallel inter-state government, probably a weak federation or confederation.
- States simply ignoring the federal government to some degree and maybe refusing to pay federal taxes or stealing federal property or that owned by hated outsiders (Bill Gates, Amazon, Black Rock, Democrats in general).
This will of course be challenged by the feds and by blue state regions and the non-productive intermediary classes, but given that they are actively undermining their own authority and that of their law enforcement and military proxies, I don't see them doing much besides a few massacres and terror bombings before their supply chains are cut, they run out of fuel, and they are left to starve. It's not neccessary to actually put a bullet in the head of every malicious actor because they are totally dependent on the productive classes for survival; cutting them off and letting them starve to death is simple, easy, cheap, and morally appropriate.
I think that one or more states will form their own currencies as well, to evade hyperinflation of the US dollar and to deal with the feds cutting them off after they refuse to pay federal taxes. This will of course suck for people who depend on federal handouts like social security, veterans disability, and various pensions, but most normal people won't notice much besides their money suddenly being much more valuable and there being very little or no inflation.
All in all I think we'll come out fine, with a much reduced imperial footprint, and probably distant territories under new management (Japan gets our Pacific islands and becomes a naval empire again to contain China) or independent (probably Alaska). Life will suck in the near term of now to 5 years, but be much better 10 years from now.
/autistic effort-poast