The max penalty for the Incest with no other charges added is 1 year so if they go a whole year, the odds are 0%, Chris walks in, pleads guilty to Incest, and is released with “Time Served”, as well as possible monitoring and RSO registration. This might be exactly what Heilberg and the DA are shooting for. This keeps them from having to pitch a deal to Chris that he won’t want to accept. Instead, drag it out for a year and then tell Chris, “Take this deal and you can walk RIGHT NOW!”
Not exactly. If convicted as a class 1 misdemeanor, the maximum is 1 year in jail. If convicted as a class 5 felony, the maximum is 10 years in prison. Just the incest charge, with no enhancement, can be treated either way at sentencing.
The way I see it, there are three major carrots the prosecution can dangle, and the defense can ask for, in any deal:
The first is no additional charges. The prosecution will almost certainly make that offer on their own as adding more charges complicates the trial immensely -- they probably have him dead to rights for incest, but they'd actually have to put together a compelling case for rape. They'd probably succeed, but it would require way more of their resources to build the case.
The second, and the BIG one, is the SOR. The simple incest charge as it stands would not place him on the SOR. For that to happen, the prosecution would have to additionally prove that Barb was mentally disabled. This involves the same amount of extra evidence as a rape charge but requires no mens rea and is way easier to make stick. The SOR is probably the worst punishment (because it's officially "not a punishment" and thus somehow can be nastier thanks to legal mental gymnastics) so potentially adding it is the biggest stick and not adding it is the biggest carrot.
The third is the misdemeanor/felony wobbler. Being a felon sucks and makes a lot of things in life harder, though nowhere near as bad as the SOR. For normal people it would probably be a bigger issue, but for Chris the most immediate effect would be losing his tugboat and having to reapply (which is perversely harder for retards -- the people who need it most). On a misdemeanor conviction his tugboat would start up again automatically. This technically isn't tied to the felony title so much as the length of the sentence being less or more than a year. I guess *technically* he could be sentenced to 14 months in prison as a felon, but they remove 4-5 months time served in jail (or however much it is when the deal finishes) and thus his tugboat lapses for less than a year and he doesn't need to reapply.
The deal Chris attorney is working toward is almost certainly having all three of these conditions come out favorably for Chris. Accepting the maximum misdemeanor sentence of 1 year would be a fine concession as it scores all the big wins for Chris and adds zero complication for the prosecution.
The next step up would be a minimum-sentence felony conviction without tugboat loss. This hurts Chris more, but not too much, and gets a felony win for the prosecution without any more complication. I'm not sure if Chris' attorney has the tugboat in mind though as he's not super familiar with Chris like we are. The only downside for the prosecution here is that they have to sell it as going light on a felony sentence instead of giving the maximum sentence as a misdemeanor.
A variation on that is a longer felony sentence, tugboat goes away, but everything else stays the same.
The SOR requirement is what Chris' attorney will be fighting the most, and the prosecution is almost certainly including that into consideration as part of the deal. The bulk of the negotiations will be over this.
The additional charges are the nuclear option that the prosecution is only holding onto in case no deal is reached. The threat is basically "take a deal or we will spend the extra resources to make sure we never have to deal with you again". This is the stuff that potentially keeps Chris in prison until he's an old man, and on the SOR for life, with no public housing. Any deal will not include extra charges (unless it's some bullshit extra charge without too many real-world consequences solely as theatrics to give the prosecutor some extra conviction points). Basically if they go ultra harsh, the defense can call the bluff and agree to go to trial, and then the prosecution can come back with a better deal at the last minute to avoid the resource-draining trial. Or, we get the retard trial of the century. I give maybe a 3% chance of this happening.