Global Supply Chain Crisis 2021: Megathread - A cozy thread for watching the supply chain fall apart just in time for the holidays

Should the title be re-worded to expand the scope of the thread?

  • The US Trucking Crisis of 2021 works fine

    Votes: 25 9.4%
  • The US Logistics Crisis of 2021

    Votes: 30 11.2%
  • The US Transportation Crisis of 2021

    Votes: 7 2.6%
  • The US Supply Chain Crisis of 2021

    Votes: 35 13.1%
  • Global Supply Chain Crisis 2021

    Votes: 206 77.2%

  • Total voters
    267
  • Poll closed .
@Sped Xing

Your post lost the reply feature (I'm guessing because the site's still being DDOS'd), but I wanted to say...

Ditch liquor is a viable avenue of cost-cutting for ruminants and poultry as well. I know the study said pigs, but I did check around and it's done for other types of livestock. The idea, in it's most basic form, is that pure water will remove nutrients as the body processes it, but providing a shit protein shake to drink returns more nutrients than it removes.

Personally, I wouldn't do it for my poultry because that sounds like inviting a mass cull once they all get coccidiosis.

Pigs are walking garbage disposals, so it's most commonly seen in pig farming operations. The manure solution actually improves their immune system, and a mixture of feces and water is often sprayed into their nostrils as a form of 'vaccine' since vaccination for pig gastrointestinal diseases is ineffective. I could draw some parallels to covid, but I've sperged enough.

Also glad to know the trucker article was as exceptional as I originally thought it was. 👌

In other news, here's an interesting coincidence:

China, circa 13 days ago: China taps oil reserve, refiners ramp up output to stave off diesel shortage
United States, circa today: Biden must tap oil reserves to lower gasoline prices, Schumer says

The reserves are in primarily in Texas and Lousiana, so... come and take it, I suppose.

Now I imagine farmer Pepe going up to the pigs, pulling off his pants and spraying shit in the pigs' faces.
 
@Sped Xing

Your post lost the reply feature (I'm guessing because the site's still being DDOS'd), but I wanted to say...

Ditch liquor is a viable avenue of cost-cutting for ruminants and poultry as well. I know the study said pigs, but I did check around and it's done for other types of livestock. The idea, in it's most basic form, is that pure water will remove nutrients as the body processes it, but providing a shit protein shake to drink returns more nutrients than it removes.

Personally, I wouldn't do it for my poultry because that sounds like inviting a mass cull once they all get coccidiosis.

Pigs are walking garbage disposals, so it's most commonly seen in pig farming operations. The manure solution actually improves their immune system, and a mixture of feces and water is often sprayed into their nostrils as a form of 'vaccine' since vaccination for pig gastrointestinal diseases is ineffective. I could draw some parallels to covid, but I've sperged enough.

Also glad to know the trucker article was as exceptional as I originally thought it was. 👌

In other news, here's an interesting coincidence:

China, circa 13 days ago: China taps oil reserve, refiners ramp up output to stave off diesel shortage
United States, circa today: Biden must tap oil reserves to lower gasoline prices, Schumer says

The reserves are in primarily in Texas and Lousiana, so... come and take it, I suppose.
I remember when Clinton "tapped oil reserves." Or was that GWB? Or both? All theater.

That trucker article reads like a plot to shove independent truckers into wagie cagies.

I like my animals too much to feed them poop. I can see it with pigs. Pigs are practically human with their piercing voices, destructive habits, and indiscriminate consumption. They're pretty hard to like.
 
Now I imagine farmer Pepe going up to the pigs, pulling off his pants and spraying shit in the pigs' faces.

It do basically be like that. The caveat is that because pigs are so similar genetically to humans they shouldn't be fed human waste, as it creates a vector for new and exciting diseases that humans can easily contract.

I remember when Clinton "tapped oil reserves." Or was that GWB? Or both? All theater.

That trucker article reads like a plot to shove independent truckers into wagie cagies.

I like my animals too much to feed them poop. I can see it with pigs. Pigs are practically human with their piercing voices, destructive habits, and indiscriminate consumption. They're pretty hard to like.

You are correct on all counts:
Article archive
There are only three times in history when the White House directed an emergency drawdown. Two involved serious disruptions to supply as a result of wars: Libya in 2011 and Iraq in 1991. The draw in 2005 followed Hurricane Katrina’s shut-in of around a quarter of U.S. production.

I don't remember hearing much about it in 2005, but that one has the most solid/non-theater reason for drawing from the SPR. Louisiana does produce a lot of oil and they were pretty severely hit by Katrina.

I spent a lot of time last night puzzling over the SPR news because I could swear I recalled posting about it somewhere in the middle of the thread, and lo and behold:

USA Already Exporting Oil from SPR at Record Pace
About 1.6 million barrels of crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve -- a monthly record -- was shipped out in October, according to data from market intelligence firm Kpler. Three cargoes were loaded onto a supertanker in the U.S. Gulf Coast and are headed to Asia.

Sadly, I think you're also correct that they want to completely overhaul the demographics for truckers, and I believe this is the reason:
MSNBC host facing backlash after calling out truckers as ‘aggressive’ white men over 55 (They're also all Trump voters, according to the article).

I've been thinking long and hard about how to properly explain the looming threat of a world-wide famine to everyone and I think I've got enough to make my case, so I'll be back later to do another agriculture TedTalks.

As usual a big thanks to everyone who has been following and contributing. We're in the eye of the storm now, but if I had to make a prediction I'd say Thanksgiving and Black Friday are going to hit stores hard, and as we roll into winter we'll get to see what the real damages are. Next year is make-or-break for farming industries across the globe, but as I said, I'll thoroughly explain why in a follow-up post.
 
Cat lady sperg: the prices of cat food and cat litter have gone up very quickly out of the blue
And very limited selections
My local supermarket has been completely blown out on cat food since last Thursday. Sold out on Amazon too. Chewy was able to fulfil half my order. I have increased my days on hand for cat food from 14 days to 72 days. I might take that up to 90 days. Litter is also somewhat iffy.
 
My local supermarket has been completely blown out on cat food since last Thursday. Sold out on Amazon too. Chewy was able to fulfil half my order. I have increased my days on hand for cat food from 14 days to 72 days. I might take that up to 90 days. Litter is also somewhat iffy.
There's vitamin powders you can get to mix with meat to make nutritionally complete cat food if canned prepared food is not available in your area. Talk to your vet to see what they recommend for your cat and specific circumstances.
 
I think mentioned Azure Standard before in this thread. They're basically a co-op that ships food, a lot of it bulk and organic, from the Pacific Northwest across the country. You order once a month, they fill your order and put it on a truck that serves a specific route, then you meet your semi at a drop point and pick up your things. They aren't cheap, but they're a good company with great customer service, and prices are reasonable for the excellent quality.

Anyway, they are completely swamped, their routes are running late (tw: video of wholesome Christians in a warehouse), they're frequently out of various items, because their customer base has exploded over the pandemic. They recently put out a call to their customers for anyone who wants a warehouse job, and they're still actively hiring. As far as I know, they don't really advertise, so I think this is all word of mouth, organic growth, as people are getting spooked about normal supply chains.

(I'm not shilling, just a gloomer who likes bulk foods.)
 
Disclaimer: I have read/viewed everything I will be linking and it is Tern approved. Welcome to The Autism Zone.

This covers the impact in first world countries, but primarily the US. It incorporates several things I will be discussing repeatedly over the course of this post.

This is regarding the famine that is already going on, currently, today, in multiple countries. The WFP is warning of catastrophic levels of hunger -- children eating their own hands type hunger -- due to famines in Afghanistan, Sudan, Angola, Ethiopia, Madagascar, and at least 43 other countries. Lebanon is currently undergoing a complete economic collapse that is exacerbating issues in the Middle East and northern Africa.

It's Not Climate Change; It's a La Niña
lanina.jpg

For anyone who isn't aware how a La Niña works, familiarize yourself with what it does to global weather conditions in a haste. For those Kiwis who don't follow links, I will summarize; Africa and the Middle East experience blistering heat waves and drought, North America gets hit with monsoon rains along the western seaboard (this is happening now, today). Brazil gets epic growing weather; lots of rain and warm, tropical temps.

This is Vancouver, Canada, as of an hour ago. This is a Happening. Kiwi Farms has a thread for it.

This is China right now. Watch the video. It's got cool building collapses.

Pay attention to that China video, because that's going to be the US once winter hits. Maine is fucked. Massachusetts still can't get snow plow drivers and is also on the menu to get wrekt.

This is important because the Arctic blast that hit Texas last winter is the reason we have no poultry and chicken prices are through the roof. If you can't get chicks there aren't any chickens. That's just how the poultry industry operates.
(Sauce)
The Coombs said the hatchery they get chicks from was severely impacted by a deep freeze earlier this year in Texas. They received a third of the birds they were hoping for, and got them a few weeks later than normal. These turkeys have less time to grow.

Here are two articles that are MUST READS if you want to understand how the supply chain issues, labor shortages, and shortages of fertilizer, fuel, and herbicides are going to impact next year. If the good growing conditions for North and South America end with the closing of the La Niña season and yields are normal or below average, there will be food shortages stemming from lack of available crops.

Article archive

Crunch at Ports May Mean Crisis for American Farms​

Backlogs and cancellations are hitting growers as costs rise, profits slump and overseas customers shop elsewhere.

By Ana Swanson
  • Nov. 14, 2021
It’s just 60 miles from El Dorado Dairy in Ontario, Calif., to the nation’s largest container port in Los Angeles. But the farm is having little luck getting its products onto a ship headed for the foreign markets that are crucial to its business.

The farm is part of one of the nation’s largest cooperatives, California Dairies Inc., which manufactures milk powder for factories in Southeast Asia and Mexico that use it to make candy, baby formula and other foods. The company typically ships 50 million pounds of its milk powder and butter out of ports each month. But roughly 60 percent of the company’s bookings on outbound vessels have been canceled or deferred in recent months, resulting in about $45 million in missed revenue per month.

“This is not just a problem, it’s not just an inconvenience, it’s catastrophic,” said Brad Anderson, the chief executive of California Dairies.
A supply chain crisis for imports has grabbed national headlines and attracted the attention of the Biden administration, as shoppers fret about securing gifts in time for the holidays and as strong consumer demand for couches, electronics, toys and clothing pushes inflation to its highest level in three decades.

Yet another crisis is also unfolding for American farm exports.
The same congestion at U.S. ports and shortage of truck drivers that have brought the flow of some goods to a halt have also left farmers struggling to get their cargo abroad and fulfill contracts before food supplies go bad. Ships now take weeks, rather than days, to unload at the ports, and backed-up shippers are so desperate to return to Asia to pick up more goods that they often leave the United States with empty containers rather than wait for American farmers to fill them up.

The National Milk Producers Federation estimates that shipping disruptions have cost the U.S. dairy industry nearly $1 billion in the first half of the year in terms of higher shipping and inventory costs, lost export volume and price deterioration.
“Exports are a huge issue for the U.S. right now,” said Jason Parker, the head of global trucking and intermodal at Flexport, a logistics company. “Getting exports out of the country is actually harder than getting imports into the country.”

Agriculture accounts for about one-tenth of America’s goods exports, and roughly 20 percent of what U.S. farmers and ranchers produce is sent abroad. The industry depends on an intricate choreography of refrigerated trucks, railcars, cargo ships and warehouses that move fresh products around the globe, often seamlessly and unnoticed.

U.S. farm exports have risen strongly this year, as the industry bounces back from the pandemic and benefits from a trade deal with China that required purchases of American agricultural products. Strong global demand for food and soaring commodities prices have lifted the value of U.S. agricultural exports more than 20 percent over last year.

Still, exporters say they are leaving significant amounts of money on the table as a result of supply chain problems. And many farmers are now struggling to keep up with soaring costs for materials like fertilizer, air filters, pallets and packaging, as well as find farmhands and drivers to move their goods.

A survey by the Agriculture Transportation Coalition, which represents exporters, found that 22 percent of foreign agriculture sales on average were being lost as a result of transportation challenges.

Delays at ports have particularly hurt products that move in corrugated metal containers, like cheese, butter, meat, walnuts and cotton.
One company, Talmera USA Inc., which exports milk powder, cheese and dairy ingredients like lactose, had a shipment delayed so many times that its load finally wound up on the original vessel it was assigned to after the ship had left the port in Seattle, circumnavigated Asia and returned weeks later.

Mr. Anderson said that his company’s customers were beginning to look to suppliers in Europe, New Zealand and other countries for their purchases, even though the U.S. dairy industry has a reputation for high quality. “Frankly none of that matters to the customer if we can’t get it there,” he said.

Part of the problem is that shipping companies are able to charge far more to ferry goods from Asia to the United States than vice versa, so they don’t want to waste time waiting for a less lucrative load departing from the West Coast.

According to data from Freightos, an online freight marketplace, the cost to ship a 40-foot container from Asia to the U.S. West Coast soared to $18,730 in November — more than 17 times what it cost to make the reverse trip.

Prices to Ship Containers to U.S. From Asia Have Soared​

Shipping cargo east across the Pacific to the Western United States is far more lucrative than the same trip in reverse.
Price per 40-foot container

prices.png

As a result, more than 80 percent of the 434,000 20-foot containers exported out of the Port of Los Angeles in September were empty — up from about two-thirds in September 2020 and September 2019.

Mario Cordero, the executive director of the Port of Long Beach, said that the price differential encouraged shipping companies to get their containers “back to Asia A.S.A.P. so you can load it with import items.”

“And unfortunately the American exporter is impacted by this approach,” he said.

A supply crunch in the trucking industry is also affecting farmers, as truckers find better pay and hours delivering holiday gifts than hauling soybeans and swine.

Tony Clayton, the president of Clayton Agri-Marketing Inc., in Jefferson City, Mo, exports live animals around the world for breeding. He said the company is competing at both ports and airports for space for dairy heifers, swine and goats. And many livestock truckers have found that they can earn more hauling dry freight.

“It is a challenge,” Mr. Clayton said. “We’re all fighting and competing for those people who will sit behind the steering wheel.”
The infrastructure bill that Congress passed on Nov. 5 aims to remedy supply chain backlogs by investing $17 billion in American ports, many of which rank among the least efficient in the world.

Agricultural exporters have had to get creative to bypass congested ports and warehouses. Mr. Anderson said his company was considering rerouting some shipments more than a thousand miles to the port in Vancouver.

Mike Durkin, the chief executive of Leprino Foods Company, the world’s largest maker of mozzarella cheese, told House lawmakers this month that nearly all of the company’s 2021 ocean shipments had been canceled and rebooked for a later date. More than 100 of the company’s bookings this year had been canceled and rebooked 17 times, Mr. Durkin said, equating to a five-month delay in delivering their cheese.

In the interim, Leprino Foods has had to pay to hold its cheese in refrigerated containers in carrier yards, racking up an additional $25 million in fees this year.

The bill also includes funding to improve railways, roads and waterways, as well as a provision to fund pop-up container yards outside the Port of Savannah, in Georgia, to ease congestion. It will also lower the minimum age of truckers who can cross state lines to 18, in a bid to attract more workers to a profession that has become a key bottleneck in supply chains.

In September, the U.S. Department of Agriculture also announced it would dispense $500 million to help farmers deal with transportation challenges and rising materials costs.

John D. Porcari, the Biden administration’s port envoy, said farm exports are a “primary focus” for the administration, and that the White House was trying to encourage private sector companies, including ocean carriers, to get the supply chain moving.
The White House held a round table with agricultural exporters on Friday, and Mr. Porcari plans to visit the Port of Oakland, in California, one of the biggest export points for agriculture, this week.

“We know that some sectors have had more trouble than others, and we’re working to eliminate those bottlenecks,” Mr. Porcari said in an interview.

While agricultural exporters have welcomed long-term infrastructure investments, they remain concerned about more immediate losses.
Mr. Anderson — whose company is responsible for nearly 10 percent of America’s milk supply and a fifth of American butter production — said he had been frustrated that much of the public dialogue from the government and in the media had focused more on consumer imports.

“Are we going to get toys for Christmas? Are we going to get chips for automobiles? We think those are real concerns and they need to be talked about,” he said. “What’s not being talked about is the long-term damage being done to exporters in the world market and how that’s going to be devastating to our family farms.”

Article archive

Opinion: Top challenges facing U.S. farmers in the global trade market​

11/15/21 1:22 PM By John Penson Jr.

The future of global trade for American agriculture continues to paint a murky picture. As of now, the trade outlook for U.S. ag exports in 2022 remains strong. Higher grain prices have yet to affect demand, and current yields are suggesting that the stock-to-use ratios for corn, soybeans, and wheat will likely keep prices strong. While there’s been a considerable amount of attention on record-breaking ag export trade forecasts, less focus has been placed on the import side of things which could be cause for concern as farmers make production decisions heading into spring.

The U.S. relies significantly on imports of nitrogen and potash fertilizers. The rising price of natural gas, a key ingredient in ammonia used to manufacture nitrogen fertilizers, is a major factor driving up nitrogen fertilizer prices. Fertilizer producers in Europe have cut back on ammonia production in light of the dramatic natural gas prices there. China, one of the world’s largest exporters of urea, sulphate, and phosphate, is imposing restrictions on their export. China and Europe represent the two largest sources of imported fertilizer and agricultural chemicals. These developments, coupled with strong demand, are causing triple-digit growth in prices for nitrogen, ammonia, and phosphate in the U.S. The prices of glyphosate and glufosinate, herbicide compounds for weed control, are up as much as 300% in certain locations.

These shortages and price spikes are not solely a U.S. problem. Brazil is also facing escalating fertilizer prices during planting season which will likely lead to reduced corn production. Canadian authorities are urging their growers to cut back on usage. European farmers might find it more difficult to source fertilizer this spring.

Other factors affecting production costs for farmers include:
  • Parts shortages and repair costs for machinery and equipment, likely exacerbated by the worker strike at John Deere.
  • With the U.S. expected to be more reliant on crude oil imports in 2022, the rise in crude oil prices to the $85 per barrel range is also a cause for concern.
  • Prices for propane, which is used to heat many rural homes, have nearly doubled since last year.
  • Finally, farmland rents are expected to be up 10-20 percent in 2022 in many parts of the country.
Although higher costs for fertilizer and other inputs will place pressure on farm profitability in 2022, U.S. crop enterprises will likely remain profitable assuming normal yields due to a strong market. The risk is that farmers pay the high costs for fertilizer and chemicals only to see adverse shifts in the global market caused by a relatively stronger dollar or barriers to trade (particularly with China) squeeze expected profit margins. Given current conditions and high commodity prices, direct government payments are likely to be dramatically lower and crop revenue insurance does not address rising operating expenses.

A strong demand coupled with tight supply for agricultural commodities is translating into higher food prices for consumers. According to the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), global food prices have reached a 10-year high. High wheat and other grain prices, along with high shipping costs and delays, are particularly damaging for poorer countries.

One thing is certain—affordability and availability of inputs are both critical to ensuring our ability to compete in the global market and protecting our domestic food system. While global agriculture has its benefits, a domestic food system should be self-sustaining as well to hedge against the risk of supply bottlenecks and shortages, as seen these last couple of years.

Dr. John Penson Jr. Is the Chief Economist at AgAmerica Lending, a nationwide agricultural land lender. He has also held the title of Regents Professor and Stiles Professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Texas A&M University.

If you want to flesh out the picture being painted a little more, here's an article about the USDA projections for crops and crop prices for the next year. Brazil churned out record amounts of soybean and corn this year, but a shortage of L-lysine threatens to undo those gains. Nursing sows and newly weaned piglets require L-lysine to grow. If it cannot be added to feed as a supplement, then the only cure is to push more biomatter, and specifically soybean meal, because it's naturally high in L-lysine.

I have a really crazy theory that I can elaborate on for the curious, which is that China is intentionally trying to destroy the agriculture of countries where the bulk of food is grown. From 2009-2016 the Chinese acquired record amounts of American farmland. They are currently running an embargo on beef from Brazil, Ireland, and the UK for bogus sounding reasons. The Brazilian farmers are facing down culling their herds because the local market is glutted with beef and they can't import the beef into the US due to FDA standards.

Here is an article about the fertilizer shortage. Meanwhile in India farmers have started stealing DAP (a form of fertilizer) and the government is trying to crack down on hoarders.

Edit: I will be creating a separate Happening thread for this once I get some rest. Don't steal my goddamn homework. I exhausted myself putting this together.
 
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Greetings! I come with a bulletin from the socialist paradise of Canuckistan! My father advises me that Walmart is out of lime descaler, the Old Spaghetti Factory is out of Molson Canadian beer, the Co-Op bakery has semi-permanently turned its variety cookie section into a gingerbread cookie section because they can't get any other kind of mix and don't know when they will, and the Sobeys submarine sandwich section is bare. None of this has ever happened before, and now it's all happened in less than a month.

Still totally just an American problem, though. (Sigh.)
 
I don't have a ton of time, but I saw I was being talked at on mobile and dropped in real quick. I will be back later.

@contradiction of terns

Good job! You figured it all out. No need to do any further homework, I already did all of it for you. I tried telling you guys about it but there was only so much detail I was willing and able to provide.

Stock up if you still can.

Aroo? I've seen you in the Evergrande thread, but I don't recall anything outside of that. Two things, I guess.

1. I have been preparing since Corona-chan was first announced. I'm good. This is for everyone who isn't aware of what's up. God knows the journos aren't exactly talking about it.

2. There's a difference between standing on a corner shouting, "The end is nigh!" and explaining coherently why the end is nigh.

Agriculture is nerd stuff. 7% of Americans think chocolate milk comes from brown cows (there are claims this isn't true, but I don't struggle to believe it myself). I figured someone somewhere might find it interesting to have said nerd stuff explained.

Is this really that bad? Couldn't this be a push towards self-reliance? As an example they say many Iowa farmers will probably switch from growing corn to growing soybeans, which needs less fertilizer. I mean yeah lol soyboy cuckfood but the point is, growing legumes instead of corn isn't exactly a disaster, you can make proper food out of them rather than its only use being the primary state of sugar syrup.

If everything else was going well you'd be correct. I don't really need corn in my diet. Nobody does.

No high fructose corn syrup means a lot of common snack food items go away (#FirstWorldProblems). It's also bad news for livestock feed. China isn't hoarding their fertilizer and planning to produce an insane amount of corn for no reason.
 
I don't have a ton of time, but I saw I was being talked at on mobile and dropped in real quick. I will be back later.



Aroo? I've seen you in the Evergrande thread, but I don't recall anything outside of that. Two things, I guess.

1. I have been preparing since Corona-chan was first announced. I'm good. This is for everyone who isn't aware of what's up. God knows the journos aren't exactly talking about it.

2. There's a difference between standing on a corner shouting, "The end is nigh!" and explaining coherently why the end is nigh.

Agriculture is nerd stuff. 7% of Americans think chocolate milk comes from brown cows (there are claims this isn't true, but I don't struggle to believe it myself). I figured someone somewhere might find it interesting to have said nerd stuff explained.



If everything else was going well you'd be correct. I don't really need corn in my diet. Nobody does.

No high fructose corn syrup means a lot of common snack food items go away (#FirstWorldProblems). It's also bad news for livestock feed. China isn't hoarding their fertilizer and planning to produce an insane amount of corn for no reason.

 
I don't have a ton of time, but I saw I was being talked at on mobile and dropped in real quick. I will be back later.



Aroo? I've seen you in the Evergrande thread, but I don't recall anything outside of that. Two things, I guess.

1. I have been preparing since Corona-chan was first announced. I'm good. This is for everyone who isn't aware of what's up. God knows the journos aren't exactly talking about it.

2. There's a difference between standing on a corner shouting, "The end is nigh!" and explaining coherently why the end is nigh.

Agriculture is nerd stuff. 7% of Americans think chocolate milk comes from brown cows (there are claims this isn't true, but I don't struggle to believe it myself). I figured someone somewhere might find it interesting to have said nerd stuff explained.



If everything else was going well you'd be correct. I don't really need corn in my diet. Nobody does.

No high fructose corn syrup means a lot of common snack food items go away (#FirstWorldProblems). It's also bad news for livestock feed. China isn't hoarding their fertilizer and planning to produce an insane amount of corn for no reason.
I can assure you that midwestern farmers make more than enough corn to sustain livestock feed, even if the amount of corn produced every year was halved there would still be a surplus.

Will say the spectre of famine on the horizon makes me happy I can hear cows and see fields from my windowsill.
 
I can assure you that midwestern farmers make more than enough corn to sustain livestock feed, even if the amount of corn produced every year was halved there would still be a surplus.

Will say the spectre of famine on the horizon makes me happy I can hear cows and see fields from my windowsill.
You're right, and it's why I liked what the economist in the opening video was saying; there's always food, even in a total global downturn. But said economist was also correct in that just because there's food doesn't mean everyone gets some.

I could be wrong, but China positioning themselves to corner the global market on agricultural goods doesn't seem too far fetched. If you control the global food supply you control the world, and the Chinese seem like they want to expand their sphere of control. I recognize you from the Evergrande and you always have good insights, so don't hesitate to chime in.


Okay, I think I see what happened here. This is somewhat similar to two people sitting down to discuss the Great Depression and one of them is talking about the Stock Market Collapse and the other is talking about the Dustbowl.

I'm not going to deny that a lot of what you said went over my head. You're clearly very informed about your field and more autistic than I am. With all the respect due to someone who knows what they're talking about, the thread didn't draw a direct line from turmoil in the financial sector to empty grocery store shelves for me. I'm pointing this out because that means it won't do that for most people who aren't familiar with the stock market, so you won't reach many people outside of that particular subforum.

I'm going to hold off on organizing my FamineWatch premise because I'm genuinely curious if you would be willing to give a quick-and-dirty rundown of global finances and how it will translate to 'People don't get food.' It'd be nice to be able to present both the finance and agricultural information together.

You seem like you have good intentions. The bit you said about grandma losing her retirement fund indicated you're taking your valuable time to talk about these things because you want to warn others so they can be prepared. This is what I also want, I'm just geared to talk to people at the average American education level (so, 9th grade, basically). John Q Public will suffer the most, so I try to lay things out in a manner someone could take to their NPC friends and maybe succeed at explaining the gravity of the situation to them.

I concede you were talking about it first. I wasn't trying to hijack what you were saying. I honestly didn't know what was going on with your thread; I don't go in that subforum.

Edit: Unrelated to all of the above, here's a video that's relevant to the thread.
 
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You're right, and it's why I liked what the economist in the opening video was saying; there's always food, even in a total global downturn. But said economist was also correct in that just because there's food doesn't mean everyone gets some.

I could be wrong, but China positioning themselves to corner the global market on agricultural goods doesn't seem too far fetched. If you control the global food supply you control the world, and the Chinese seem like they want to expand their sphere of control. I recognize you from the Evergrande and you always have good insights, so don't hesitate to chime in.



Okay, I think I see what happened here. This is somewhat similar to two people sitting down to discuss the Great Depression and one of them is talking about the Stock Market Collapse and the other is talking about the Dustbowl.

I'm not going to deny that a lot of what you said went over my head. You're clearly very informed about your field and more autistic than I am. With all the respect due to someone who knows what they're talking about, the thread didn't draw a direct line from turmoil in the financial sector to empty grocery store shelves for me. I'm pointing this out because that means it won't do that for most people who aren't familiar with the stock market, so you won't reach many people outside of that particular subforum.

I'm going to hold off on organizing my FamineWatch premise because I'm genuinely curious if you would be willing to give a quick-and-dirty rundown of global finances and how it will translate to 'People don't get food.' It'd be nice to be able to present both the finance and agricultural information together.

You seem like you have good intentions. The bit you said about grandma losing her retirement fund indicated you're taking your valuable time to talk about these things because you want to warn others so they can be prepared. This is what I also want, I'm just geared to talk to people at the average American education level (so, 9th grade, basically). John Q Public will suffer the most, so I try to lay things out in a manner someone could take to their NPC friends and maybe succeed at explaining the gravity of the situation to them.

I concede you were talking about it first. I wasn't trying to hijack what you were saying. I honestly didn't know what was going on with your thread; I don't go in that subforum.

Edit: Unrelated to all of the above, here's a video that's relevant to the thread.
The only issue I have with your assessment lies with the fact that china has very small swaths of legitimately usable farm land(compared to their population). They have been a net importer of food for decades, and while I'm sure they would love to reverse that position they'll need to discover some unknown secret to converting arid land to fields of crops. Modern tech and chemical engineering have no doubt played a role in the American Midwest's ability to feed a good portion of the world, but lest we forget that the entire reason europoors were chomping at the bit to move to america in the 18th and 19th century was because of the incredibly fertile farm land. People moved here in droves to work the land, and produce the fruits of their labor.

Failing the ability to convert your own land into usable fields purchasing other countries farmland even if only nominally is not a bad strategy. Of course they never really own that land, they simply are allowed to use it as they please during times of good relations. If crop yields are plentiful globally as well as in the locality of the purchased land all is well and good, said country could simply transport the food to their own nation and potentially cut down on cost's while ensuring their population is fed; During times of draught or famine however a problem is presented, local population's aren't going to sit by and watch as the fruits of their own nation are whisked across borders or even ocean's leaving them with little left to eat. If the local population of that purchased land is going hungry you can bet the farm that the majority of the food grown on that nominally purchased land is not reaching the country that payed for it. Unless said purchasing country is willing to invade to recoup their financial investment in sustenance, they'll simply have wasted their own time and resources growing food for the country that actually own's the land.

China is really in a no win situation when it comes to agriculture, they have very little usable land, even if they suddenly had more land to be used their water supply is dwindling( a good portion isn't even usable in industry let alone agriculture), and the strategy of purchasing farm land from their economic competitors leaves them in a vulnerable position.

You seem to be more read up on the current happenings regarding china and farm land though, most of this stuff I learned like 2 years ago lol so maybe its not applicable anymore.
 
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