Global Supply Chain Crisis 2021: Megathread - A cozy thread for watching the supply chain fall apart just in time for the holidays

Should the title be re-worded to expand the scope of the thread?

  • The US Trucking Crisis of 2021 works fine

    Votes: 25 9.4%
  • The US Logistics Crisis of 2021

    Votes: 30 11.2%
  • The US Transportation Crisis of 2021

    Votes: 7 2.6%
  • The US Supply Chain Crisis of 2021

    Votes: 35 13.1%
  • Global Supply Chain Crisis 2021

    Votes: 206 77.2%

  • Total voters
    267
  • Poll closed .
I could be wrong, but China positioning themselves to corner the global market on agricultural goods doesn't seem too far fetched. If you control the global food supply you control the world, and the Chinese seem like they want to expand their sphere of control. I recognize you from the Evergrande and you always have good insights, so don't hesitate to chime in.

Correct and thank you.

Okay, I think I see what happened here. This is somewhat similar to two people sitting down to discuss the Great Depression and one of them is talking about the Stock Market Collapse and the other is talking about the Dustbowl.

This correct. I tried, I really did. I saw all the financial implications instantly and had to ponder on the greater implications of it all but shared what I could without drawing too much attention (hello glowies, hope you are well) and without causing a panic.

POST CUT SHORT MORE PRESSING MATTERS TALK LATER
 
Correct and thank you.



This correct. I tried, I really did. I saw all the financial implications instantly and had to ponder on the greater implications of it all but shared what I could without drawing too much attention (hello glowies, hope you are well) and without causing a panic.

POST CUT SHORT MORE PRESSING MATTERS TALK LATER

Take your time. I'm curious to hear more from you.

@Kujo Jotaro

Reply feature broke. You are correct China cannot achieve dominance over the global food supply by farming land in China. That's not what they're doing.

Eyes Wide Shut? US Agriculture Faces China Reckoning
A day looms when China may no longer need bulk imports of U.S. farm commodities. Worldwide, the CCP is gobbling up unprecedented amounts of farmland, including American acres, in order to ensure its food supply rides shotgun with its efforts at global domination. However, demography is destiny, and China’s aspirations may end with a population crash if the country grows old before it gains supremacy.

Farmer beware: China may be marching toward economic hegemony and an unprecedented level of self-sourced food or it could be headed for a population dive that would rattle the CCP to its core. Either scenario carries massive implications for U.S. agriculture.

They will buy land in the countries where food is grown. I believe they may be making minor market manipulations in the background to speed the implosion of the agricultural industry in these places. This is similar to their purchases in Africa and their overtures towards Afghanistan, which appear geared towards colonizing countries where raw materials/rare earth metals come from.
 
Take your time. I'm curious to hear more from you.

@Kujo Jotaro

Reply feature broke. You are correct China cannot achieve dominance over the global food supply by farming land in China. That's not what they're doing.

Eyes Wide Shut? US Agriculture Faces China Reckoning


They will buy land in the countries where food is grown. I believe they may be making minor market manipulations in the background to speed the implosion of the agricultural industry in these places. This is similar to their purchases in Africa and their overtures towards Afghanistan, which appear geared towards colonizing countries where raw materials/rare earth metals come from.

Very busy at the moment but a few things:
-Afghanistan is more of a military/strategy/positioning exercise in my view. They already have the NK deposits in all but name. Afghanistan's deposit are a nice bonus but it doesn't seem to be about that. Why do you think they allow the Kim family to continue sitting on the throne?
-Buying land hand over fist yes. Some manipulations but they're relatively minor.

Is there some kind of private chat function I can put in my phone or something?
 
Market kids in my area this week sold for $3.50 to $4.90 a pound, live weight. Two years ago I would have been perfectly happy with two dollars. EDIT: for more context, this isn't usually the time to sell meat goats. Prices are usually highest in April and May.

If China's plan is to make me rich, maybe I could get used to wearing OD green.
 
Very busy at the moment but a few things:
-Afghanistan is more of a military/strategy/positioning exercise in my view. They already have the NK deposits in all but name. Afghanistan's deposit are a nice bonus but it doesn't seem to be about that. Why do you think they allow the Kim family to continue sitting on the throne?
-Buying land hand over fist yes. Some manipulations but they're relatively minor.

Is there some kind of private chat function I can put in my phone or something?

Re: Afghanistan. If you think that's the case it's likely so they can position themselves to have a go at Pakistan. The Chinese are getting super cozy with the Indians, who hate the Pakis. They're also friendly with Russia, who already tried to have a go at Pakistan decades ago.

Muslims can barely be converted into civilized humans. They're not converting to communism. All China can do is enslave them or kill them.

Market kids in my area this week sold for $3.50 to $4.90 a pound, live weight. Two years ago I would have been perfectly happy with two dollars. EDIT: for more context, this isn't usually the time to sell meat goats. Prices are usually highest in April and May.

If China's plan is to make me rich, maybe I could get used to wearing OD green.

If anyone but the Chinese gets rich it's incidental. Remember the thing I said about how we're handing them massive amounts of oil from the SPR?

USA Already Exporting Oil from SPR at Record Pace
About 1.6 million barrels of crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve -- a monthly record -- was shipped out in October, according to data from market intelligence firm Kpler. Three cargoes were loaded onto a supertanker in the U.S. Gulf Coast and are headed to Asia.

Yeah. They're going to generously sell it back to us at a profit in the very near future. US asks China to release oil reserves as part of discussions on economic cooperation, source says.

I'll be back later because if I hang around I'll start fedposting.
 
I could be wrong, but China positioning themselves to corner the global market on agricultural goods doesn't seem too far fetched. If you control the global food supply you control the world, and the Chinese seem like they want to expand their sphere of control. I recognize you from the Evergrande and you always have good insights, so don't hesitate to chime in.
Well good luck with that...

The food supply chain is realy realy fucked.

ent to the supermarket today, everything is fully stocked, but they took out half the china crap isle and replaced cheap electronics and plastic crap with "international" food.
half of it was dutch and polish shelf stable goods like canned fish, special Soda, etc while the rest was full of sweets made in germany for other markets, mostly the UK.

The fresh produce section was flooded with dutch products, replacing some southern european and all non EU fruits and vegetables.
the Mushroom section was pretty much all fresh champions and lacked the more pricy stuff they normaly have(from eastern europe).

The discounts this week were also VERY good. with energy drinks beeing 10% cheaper on discount than they normaly are when on discount. same goes for baking stuff.

I guess export routes are real bad right now so Germany and its closest Suppliers have to dump everything domestic.
 
The Chinese are getting super cozy with the Indians
That would be why they keep having border skirmishes with one another, would it? China has laid claims to chunks of India's north-east and considers India a threat to ttheir territorial ambitions elsewhere. India currently has ships patrolling the south china sea to assert rights of passage in international waters that China claims as their own. They're anything but cozy. More like Germany and France in the 1910s.
 
That would be why they keep having border skirmishes with one another, would it? China has laid claims to chunks of India's north-east and considers India a threat to ttheir territorial ambitions elsewhere. India currently has ships patrolling the south china sea to assert rights of passage in international waters that China claims as their own. They're anything but cozy. More like Germany and France in the 1910s.
I'm sorry, let me clarify. At the Climate Summit in Glasgow the four countries that conspired to change the treaty wording at the last minute were China, India, New Delhi, and the US. To me that gives the appearance of being willing to underwrite each other on the international stage if their interests align.

Both have problems with the muslims, so it's an aligned interest they might be willing to work together on. I wouldn't go further than that. China might well turn on India afterwards, or decide to stage in Afghanistan and go at India and deal with other countries in the region later.
 
Wait. What? Did New Delhi secede to become an independent city state?

Ok. Feh. *The four entities that collaborated at the Climate Summit. New Delhi is apparently the Washington DC of India according to a brief bit of research. I have no idea why every article about who was doing what at the Summit mentioned all four individually. 🤷‍♀️

I have no idea how saying 'Afghanistan has lots of raw materials/natural resources China might want' and 'If anyone in the region is likely to get wrekt it's the Pakis because nobody particularly likes them' turned into this.

Can we just agree nobody in that region particularly likes the others and go back to talking about the supply chain and related? I'm willing to admit diplomatic relations in Indo-China and the surrounding areas aren't my forte.
 
^^ I Don't know where you are from but you are waaaaaay whiter than this white guy from the southern US. "The supermarket mushroom section was lookin rough" hahaha god damn. I sometimes forget that most US whites are from european ancestry but here is a good reminder.
im as white as paper and not from the US...
and mushrooms are important to me... i only have enough selfharvested porcini for Xmas, but i need them for some musselsrisotto.
thats way more important than lazy starving african people for me, they could get a job or just farm if they didnt like to starve...
 
Re: Afghanistan. If you think that's the case it's likely so they can position themselves to have a go at Pakistan. The Chinese are getting super cozy with the Indians, who hate the Pakis. They're also friendly with Russia, who already tried to have a go at Pakistan decades ago.

Muslims can barely be converted into civilized humans. They're not converting to communism. All China can do is enslave them or kill them.

This actually ties in to the supply issue. China imports a lot of its food, and has been trying to diversify the foreign countries which it sources it from. Their big geopolitical concern is that the Strait of Malacca would be closed during a conflict, and most of the food/other raw materials that they import from Europe/Africa/South Asia that's shipped by sea flows through this narrow channel. Not only that, but the Andaman Islands, which are owned by India, can also shut off this shipping lane. Unlike us, who are self-sufficient when it comes to food and could be when it comes to many other raw materials, China NEEDS this trade or the country collapses, so they've prioritized establishing more stable and easily defensible trade routes. This plan is commonly referred to as Belt and Road, and is meant to establish both land routes to Russia and Europe through Central Asia and alternate land shipping routes to ports on the Indian Ocean. The most important of these ports are in Burma and Pakistan. China has been cozying up to both countries (remember the coup in Burma) in order to smoothly implement this project and ensure political compliance. The Pakistan/Afghanistan border cuts through the tribal territory of the Pashtun people; these are the ethnic 'base' of the Taliban. Part of what allowed them to hide Bin Laden for so long and evade being crushed was the fact that they are more loyal to their tribe than to either artificial country, making the border porous. Cozying up to the Taliban gives them another stick/carrot when negotiating with Pakistan, and gives them more leverage, as they can use that influence to make the Pashtun tribes be good boys and not cause trouble or to stir up shit.

The Chinese have zero interest in converting these people to communism. Communism for them is just a justification for a system of central control that allows China to function; they aren't evangelical about it. As a culture/people, the Chinese have never really had any particular evangelical/crusading fervor. One of the things that infuriated early European diplomats was that, when they told the Chinese Emperor about Europe and its Empires/Kingdoms, he simply said 'oh, I'm the Emperor of Europe too' and treated their own monarchs as vassals because China was the center of the world to him. This is where we get the word 'kowtow'; it's a deep, almost groveling bow that the emperor demanded of European diplomats, which they found deeply insulting. The West often has this 'convert/conquer/explore the world' mentality, China has a 'have the world pay homage to China' mentality. As long as the Pakis and the Taliban kowtow to Beijing, they don't care if they worship Allah or cows or the moon. The main reason they got hopping mad at the Uighur Muslims in China was because of separatist movements/terrorist activity within their borders. The Hui, another Muslim minority group that lives further south, enjoy much more freedoms and have been historically used by the central government to crush revolts by the Uighurs (the two groups HATE each other).

China is also incredibly sensitive about foreign influence, and that, more than ideological communism, is the impetus behind a lot of religious suppression. They don't like Salafist Muslim movements which are tied to Saudi funding and influence, and they don't like Catholicism for the same reason (explicitly tied to Rome and the west). They've actually severed the Chinese 'Catholic' Church's ties to Rome and have set up a parallel ecclesiastical structure, much as England did when the Anglican Church came into being. These churches have all the trappings of Catholicism, all the rituals, and all the titles, but just as the head of the CoE was the king/queen instead of the pope, the CCPA (Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association) reports to the UFWD. An interesting artifact of this was that the CCPA never got the memo after Vatican 2 and continued to practice the Tridentine Mass for years.

But anyway this supply line project is pissing off India, because it's basically two large arms that encircle India to the east and west (along with investments in Sri Lanka to the south). This, combined with China's aggressive territorial claims, basically means that China has India by the balls and can squeeze whenever they feel like it. That, to them, is worth way more than having every Baluchi and Pashtun dirt farmer reading Mao's Little Red Cookbook.
 
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This actually ties in to the supply issue. China imports a lot of its food, and has been trying to diversify the foreign countries which it sources it from. Their big geopolitical concern is that the Strait of Malacca would be closed during a conflict, and most of the food/other raw materials that they import from Europe/Africa/South Asia that's shipped by sea flows through this narrow channel. Not only that, but the Andaman Islands, which are owned by India, can also shut off this shipping lane. Unlike us, who are self-sufficient when it comes to food and could be when it comes to many other raw materials, China NEEDS this trade or the country collapses, so they've prioritized establishing more stable and easily defensible trade routes. This plan is commonly referred to as Belt and Road, and is meant to establish both land routes to Russia and Europe through Central Asia and alternate land shipping routes to ports on the Indian Ocean. The most important of these ports are in Burma and Pakistan. China has been cozying up to both countries (remember the coup in Burma) in order to smoothly implement this project and ensure political compliance. The Pakistan/Afghanistan border cuts through the tribal territory of the Pashtun people; these are the ethnic 'base' of the Taliban. Part of what allowed them to hide Bin Laden for so long and evade being crushed was the fact that they are more loyal to their tribe than to either artificial country, making the border porous. Cozying up to the Taliban gives them another stick/carrot when negotiating with Pakistan, and gives them more leverage, as they can use that influence to make the Pashtun tribes be good boys and not cause trouble or to stir up shit.

The Chinese have zero interest in converting these people to communism. Communism for them is just a justification for a system of central control that allows China to function; they aren't evangelical about it. As a culture/people, the Chinese have never really had any particular evangelical/crusading fervor. One of the things that infuriated early European diplomats was that, when they told the Chinese Emperor about Europe and its Empires/Kingdoms, he simply said 'oh, I'm the Emperor of Europe too' and treated their own monarchs as vassals because China was the center of the world to him. This is where we get the word 'kowtow'; it's a deep, almost groveling bow that the emperor demanded of European diplomats, which they found deeply insulting. The West often has this 'convert/conquer/explore the world' mentality, China has a 'have the world pay homage to China' mentality. As long as the Pakis and the Taliban kowtow to Beijing, they don't care if they worship Allah or cows or the moon. The main reason they got hopping mad at the Uighur Muslims in China was because of separatist movements/terrorist activity within their borders. The Hui, another Muslim minority group that lives further south, enjoy much more freedoms and have been historically used by the central government to crush revolts by the Uighurs (the two groups HATE each other).

China is also incredibly sensitive about foreign influence, and that, more than ideological communism, is the impetus behind a lot of religious suppression. They don't like Salafist Muslim movements which are tied to Saudi funding and influence, and they don't like Catholicism for the same reason (explicitly tied to Rome and the west). They've actually severed the Chinese 'Catholic' Church's ties to Rome and have set up a parallel ecclesiastical structure, much as England did when the Anglican Church came into being. These churches have all the trappings of Catholicism, all the rituals, and all the titles, but just as the head of the CoE was the king/queen instead of the pope, the CCPA (Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association) reports to the UFWD. An interesting artifact of this was that the CCPA never got the memo after Vatican 2 and continued to practice the Tridentine Mass for years.

But anyway this supply line project is pissing off India, because it's basically two large arms that encircle India to the east and west (along with investments in Sri Lanka to the south). This, combined with China's aggressive territorial claims, basically means that China has India by the balls and can squeeze whenever they feel like it. That, to them, is worth way more than having every Baluchi and Pashtun dirt farmer reading Mao's Little Red Cookbook.

God bless you for this TedTalks! I can talk about the geopolitical landscape in Iraq/Kuwait/Quatar to an extent. Afghanistan/Pakistan/India/China... not so much. Everything I've learned about China has stemmed in large part from digging into the Supply Chain problems, so I understood a lot of bits and pieces of what you posted, but you really tied it all together.

The last I heard about Afghanistan/Pakistan/India, the Indians were pissed because the Taliban kept passing through Pakistan and fucking with India, then retreating back behind the Paki border. So... Afghani War circa 2009-ish? Point is, I am not brushed up on geopolitics, but I have a desire to learn, so, seriously, thank you.

Maybe it's like Austin. I wouldn't mind everyone referring to Austin as a separate entity.
I wish I could give 'agree' and 'feels' simultaneously. They are trash and to trash they shall return.

It's a crime-ridden shithole that desperately wants to turn the rest of the country into a crime-ridden shithole?
yeschad.png

New Dehli is an Independent Territory, so they probably get a delegate the same way Puerto Rico (presumably) does as a territory of the US. They have some autonomy (like DC), and can make laws, but their laws can't conflict with those of the Indian parliament, the same way local government in DC theoretically can't overturn Fed laws. This is my understanding after 30 minutes of reading about it, anyway.
 
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One of the things that infuriated early European diplomats was that, when they told the Chinese Emperor about Europe and its Empires/Kingdoms, he simply said 'oh, I'm the Emperor of Europe too' and treated their own monarchs as vassals because China was the center of the world to him. This is where we get the word 'kowtow'; it's a deep, almost groveling bow that the emperor demanded of European diplomats, which they found deeply insulting. The West often has this 'convert/conquer/explore the world' mentality, China has a 'have the world pay homage to China' mentality.
How did it end up working for them historically?
 
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Market kids in my area this week sold for $3.50 to $4.90 a pound, live weight. Two years ago I would have been perfectly happy with two dollars. EDIT: for more context, this isn't usually the time to sell meat goats. Prices are usually highest in April and May.

If China's plan is to make me rich, maybe I could get used to wearing OD green.
IIRC the price of goat (especially meat goat) has gone up a lot in the past few years in the US because there's been a lot of Indian/Muzzie/Hispanic immigration and those cultures love goat meat. The demand has long outstripped the supply. I know there's also been shit about ecofags wanting their lawns mowed by goats but that might be something different.
 
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