In light of the Biden admin's desperate flailing to do something, anything, to even just temporarily lower gas prices I have happened upon one proposed "solution" to deal with them. This is to have Biden implement an oil export ban. This is generally percieved as a fringe option, but as the Democratic Party gets more desperate for a solution I believe this is becoming more likely.
Indeed, nine House Democrats begged him to implement one yesterday in a letter.
For some context: in 2015, Republicans managed to kill what was at that time a 40-year long ban on exporting oil from the US. They did this by giving their support to some Democratic pet projects, mainly related to renewable energy. My understanding on this largely comes from
a good thread (
archive) by
Michael Kao, manager of Akanthos Capital.
It would be a bit strenous for me, a non-oil expert, to summarize that thread - you the reader can read it yourself, but here's a quick summary of what would happen if Biden implemented an oil export ban and then didn't immediately shit his pants and repeal it:
- 5+ years needed to retool U.S. oil refinery and pipeline infrastructure, assuming it's not repealed.
- Tens of billions of dollars needed just to pay for retooling that infrastructure.
- Oil prices "go negative" as companies have to beg anyone to take oil off their hands bc no storage capacity.
- Hundreds of thousands of jobs disappear, primarily in the South and Dakotas.
- Billions of dollars from export revenue lost.
- Increased gas prices. Kao says Americans could expect to pay $15/gal at the gas station.
I post this because I feel like if this topic - reimplementing an oil export ban - goes from being discussed in obscure petroleum trader groups, to being promoted as a winning strategy by Biden and friends, most people who post in or read this thread will be tempted to roll their eyes or laugh. This shouldn't be a laughing matter, though, because Biden's admin is clearly fucking incompetent. Department of Energy officials just mentioning it and Congressmen advocating it alone is cause for concern because this wouldn't just be a typical Biden gaffe. I believe that this would, for lack of more descriptive terms, shut down the United States if implemented. I intend on keeping a close eye now of who's discussing this option because it would be simply disastrous if it got into Biden's head somehow.