A Republican winning the popular vote would roughly translate to winning the electoral college by 360-180 or 400-140. Some insane landslide. Because the Democrats win about 100 votes between NY, California, Oregon, Washington, and DC and not much else really.
The problem with that is elasticity.
I really do hate how dems get a advantage with their delegates begging of the election nights simply because New York and California are called quickly.
New York is a real pain. Speaking of
It's been awhile but the shape of congress is coming up through redistricting. Before that, some news.
Paul Gosar removed from committee
House Rep Paul Gosar (R-AZ) made an unpleasant video where a cartoon him killed AOC and Biden. Liberals were quick to cry and to be fair in a time when Congressmen (Republicans) have been shot due to rhetoric this was a bad take. The problem is that Libs and their media accomplices overreached. They didn't just censure Gosar but
stripped him of his committee assignments on a party line vote.
This is the second time this Democratic congress has done this to a Republican congressman! Needless to say, their media stooges are already wringing their hands over payback.
Republicans have gerrymandered a majority! (not)
While it may feel nice to say, the fact is you can't really gerrymander a permanent majority and if Dems lose its because Joe Biden's support vanishing faster than goods on store shelves during his presidency. That hasn't stopped the NYT from irresponsibly decrying this redistricting cycle or falsely portraying the GOPs
actions during the cycle.
Congressional maps serve, perhaps more than ever before, as a predictor of which party will control the House of Representatives, where Democrats now hold 221 seats to Republicans’ 213. In the 12 states that have completed the mapping process, Republicans have gained an advantage for seats in Iowa, North Carolina, Texas and Montana, and Democrats have lost the advantage in districts in North Carolina and Iowa.
Zero mention of how Dems netted themselves three seats in Illinois, cancelling GOP pickups in Montana and North Carolina. Moreover, the Iowa maps are effectively the same as prior to redistricting with 1 safe R and three marginal Trump voting swing seats.
Now on to the main show....
The West
Redistricting in the Western states has more or less wrapped up. Dems in Oregon managed to use the process to shore up weak seats and create a new 'swing' suburban seat that will vote for Democrats in all but the most extreme circumstances, the same is true in Colorado's new district, and Nevada Democrats drew an impressive potential dummymander in which they have a chance to net three seats in a state Biden and Hillary only one by two percent.
On the flip side; Republicans have largely dropped the ball in NE, barely managed to create a Trump plus five seat in Montana, and drew solid maps in Utah/Idaho where they already held all the delegations seats.
This translates to a net shift of at most D+2 and R+1
What remains is CA, NM, AZ, KS. In CA everything indicates that they will draw majority-minority maps that will likely see both parties incumbents weakened somewhat. For the GOP that means they will probably their floor of six seats remain intact; but their current eleven members from the state will likely decline after 2022. Similarly, the big questions in AZ is whether Tom O'Halloran (D) seat will remain gerrymandered for him and whether the currently marginal Trump +5 district 6 will be diluted to become a swing seat.
This means the big action is in Kansas and New Mexico.
Everything coming out of New Mexico is the state Dems are following trends and looking at taking the Trump +10 southern seat and trying for a 2D-1 swing district.
On the flip side, Kansas is a state Trump won by larger margins than Biden won New Mexico. There, the state is divided between the majority mainstream GOP faction, a slim moderate GOP faction, and Democrats. Kansas currently has four districts with one Democrat held, former heavily Romney voting seat that swung toward Hillary and Biden. It would be a simple matter to carve the seat up and produce four, safe Republican seats.
However, the mainstream faction is also concerned with a potential dummymander due to a uniquely moderate Democrat coming close to winning the neighboring district in 2018 that Trump won landslides in both 2016 and 2020.
The moderate faction, meanwhile, has parochial concerns about dividing the county where many of them hail from and, in my opinion, would like to see it weakened enough that it becomes a swing district where one of there own could win it while a mainstream Republican would have difficulty.
Finally, Democrats would ideally like to see a least changes map. Ordinarily the idea of them having any say in a state as red as Kansas would be absurd, but due to 2018 they have the Governor seat in addition to their base plus some Romney/Biden cuckshits.
The likeliest outcome, in my opinion, is they ally with the moderates and peel enough off of the mainstream faction worried about the dummymander to have the district become a swing district.
I'll cover the rest of the nation at another point, but as the West has largely taken shape at this point I wanted to put a bow on it.
So far I'd say if Dems lose congress its due to their own choices and not evil gerrymandering...