Russian Invasion of Ukraine (2022): Thread 1 - Ukrainian Liars vs Russian Liars with Air and Artillery Superiority

[HumanHive]

I always thought it was one of those staged acts like in the WWF, Luka acts all angry, Russia acts like this is some sort of betrayal, and then they both agree to raise prices on the Eurocucks over the winter.


The US Establishment IMO has no political currency to wage another traditional war, not for another generation on a patch of dirt peripheral to the US's immediate interests. The American public is simply exhausted and has turned inwards to focus on the US's domestic issues.

The most we'll see if anything does occur is Delta Forces quietly going into Ukraine to secure certain zones and prevent a total collapse of Ukraine if anything goes bad. Sort of like what Trump did in Syria during his presidency.


Apparently so:

View attachment 2781508

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1468287736901681156

Lol, cucked.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

Even their deaths will be unannounced.

We find these terms acceptable.

V dushe ne ebu, znaya moih zemlyakov - vsemy pizdets pridet.

Ничего ему не будет, он в Сербии отдыхает. Хорошо у них там. Хлопнул стакан ракии с утра и весь день свободен.

Can confirm. Nobody need an autistic incest child in a family.

А нахуя нам Дагестан тогда?

Well mr. zelensky can пойти хуйца соснуть. This fucking clown have earned money in my country and have a dare to shit on it for a fame and cash my Motherland have gave him. Cool, cool... Volodya, I know you might read this, so please KYS unironically, заднеприводный хохлошввайн.

Як страна, як и власть... Бля, я так ржал когда узнал что они выбрали этого клоуна. До сих пор смешно.

 

[jje100010001]

We find these terms acceptable.

Pretty sure this was already happening in Syria, there were glimpses of some US regular activity in the north during Trump's presidency + intelligence active in the region (for Baghdadi + Soleimani), but no real conflict or large-scale military movements.

Also isn't Russia rumored to do similar stuff through Wagner?

I guess the future of warfare is literally Rainbow Six operatives duking it out in the dark. No matter what flag they're draped in, caskets are bad PR, after all.

 

[Meat Target]

Also isn't Russia rumored to do similar stuff through Wagner?

I guess the future of warfare is literally Rainbow Six operatives duking it out in the dark. No matter what flag they're draped in, caskets are bad PR, after all.

War has changed yada yada series of proxy battles blah blah blah nanomachines.

 

[IKOL]

Ничего ему не будет, он в Сербии отдыхает. Хорошо у них там. Хлопнул стакан ракии с утра и весь день свободен.

Кстати, спасибо за напоминание что я искал страну для переезда и думал когда-то о Сербии, о Черногории... короче, о хороших местах. Тогда.

А нахуя нам Дагестан тогда?

Так рабочая сила... которая тем не менее нихуя не работает, а только валит на тазах. Исходя из моего опыта.

Як страна, як и власть... Бля, я так ржал когда узнал что они выбрали этого клоуна. До сих пор смешно.

А мне вот нихуя. Одна из моих четырех исторических, сука, родин, и вот такое там говно творится, и не меньший говноед во главе...

 

[registered 2 hide avatars]

Why do we trust US intelligence again?

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

Кстати, спасибо за напоминание что я искал страну для переезда и думал когда-то о Сербии, о Черногории... короче, о хороших местах. Тогда.

Хорошо в Черногории. Тепло там, вино. Только у них политика непонятная. Дуканович хитрый гад, пытается одной жопой на два стула сесть. И хуй знает что будет если его уберут...

Так рабочая сила... которая тем не менее нихуя не работает, а только валит на тазах. Исходя из моего опыта.

Типа того, только пользы от них мало. Лучше узбеков или молдаван. С молдаванами бухнуть еще можно.

А мне вот нихуя. Одна из моих четырех исторических, сука, родин, и вот такое там говно творится, и не меньший говноед во главе...

Да, тоже есть такое. Мне раньше тоже было не смешно. Потом привык уже. Ничего не поделать, остается смеяться.

Pretty sure this was already happening in Syria, there were glimpses of some US regular activity in the north during Trump's presidency + intelligence active in the region (for Baghdadi + Soleimani), but no real conflict or large-scale military movements.

Also isn't Russia rumored to do similar stuff through Wagner?

Syria, Central African Republic, all sorts of places. Wagner was one of the groups involved, yeah.

 

[IKOL]

Why do we trust US intelligence again?

Have anyone said we do?

Типа того, только пользы от них мало. Лучше узбеков или молдаван. С молдаванами бухнуть еще можно.

С можно с кем угодно кто не ебет мозг себе религией.

Да, тоже есть такое. Мне раньше тоже было не смешно. Потом привык уже. Ничего не поделать, остается смеяться.

Наблюдать за перемогой колёс генотьбы... ц, мдя.

 

[Male Idiot]

Daddy Putin gib gib land! We'll buy lots of gas! Can it be used on (((them))) ?

 

[JustSomeDong]

Why do we trust US intelligence again?

What's this "we" business?

 

[celebrityskin]

No Russian ever called me Nazi/racist/white supremacist/terrorist/extremist.

Lol didn't Russia do that just a few weeks ago when they drafted a UN resolution which was a shitty attempt to legitimize their annexation of Crimea by basically calling Ukrainians a bunch of Nazis.

Statement by Special Representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation for Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law G.Lukiantsev in the Third Committee of the 76th Session of the UN General Assembly at the time of adoptio

russiaun.ru

 

[Greyfield]

Zero reason to do anything about this.

Not that it matters, but Ukraine has a shit ton of land handed over to it via the USSR's actions. Where do you think that land they scraped off Poland in 1939 went? But the Ukrainian state has been nothing but combative and distortive of the history. They turned a country wide famine into a genocide specifically against them, venerate the Nazis that slaughtered not just Ukrainian Jews, but Ukrainians that fought in the Red Army (which was the vast majority of Ukrainians fighting in WW2), and make huge demands as a minor power towards great powers in the world. On top of all that, Ukraine is more corrupt than any country in Africa and wastes almost all the aid it gets.

Ya, this is an easy call. The best course is to see if you can get anything out of Putin by selling out Ukraine and letting them have at it.

 

[iNEEDthatMoney]

Why do we trust US intelligence again?

 

[Meat Target]

Хорошо в Черногории. Тепло там, вино. Только у них политика непонятная. Дуканович хитрый гад, пытается одной жопой на два стула сесть. И хуй знает что будет если его уберут...


Типа того, только пользы от них мало. Лучше узбеков или молдаван. С молдаванами бухнуть еще можно.


Да, тоже есть такое. Мне раньше тоже было не смешно. Потом привык уже. Ничего не поделать, остается смеяться.


Syria, Central African Republic, all sorts of places. Wagner was one of the groups involved, yeah.

Have anyone said we do?


С можно с кем угодно кто не ебет мозг себе религией.



Наблюдать за перемогой колёс генотьбы... ц, мдя.

English, vodka monkeys, do you speak it?

 

[Richardface]

Here's a view from a prominent rootless cosmopolitan

Russia and Ukraine: War or Bluff? - Geopolitical Futures

Two weeks ago, I wrote an analysis of Russian strategy titled “Russia’s Move.” Here’s a brief recap: When the Soviet Union collapsed, it lost control of

geopoliticalfutures.com

Russia and Ukraine: War or Bluff?
By George Friedman -December 7, 2021Open as PDF
Two weeks ago, I wrote an analysis of Russian strategy titled “Russia’s Move.” Here’s a brief recap: When the Soviet Union collapsed, it lost control of the western borderlands that had been the bedrock of its security for hundreds of years. Those borderlands created a strategic depth that forced invaders into an extended and exhausting campaign that Russia could resist. Russia had been attacked in the 18th century by the Swedes, in the 19th century by France, and twice in the 20th century by Germany. There had also been wars with Turkey in the 18th and 19th centuries. In 1991, these borderland regions became independent, and from the Russian point of view, the West generally and the United States specifically sought to control the newly formed states. This constituted nothing less than an existential threat to Russia.

A few days after “Russia’s Move,” I wrote a piece called “Intelligence and Love,” in which I argued that to defeat an enemy you must objectively understand how they see themselves. And for its part, Russia sees itself as vulnerable, particularly from the west, where the most dangerous threats have historically originated. Belarus and Ukraine are the heart of Russian fears. The Ukrainian border is only a few hundred miles from Moscow and is therefore a major threat when in the hands of enemies. Distance will not wear down an enemy attacking from there. From the Russian point of view, the unwillingness of the United States to recognize these deep-seated fears suggests the United States has aggressive and dangerous designs. The only imaginable value Belarus and Ukraine hold for the Americans is to put Russia in a position where it must capitulate to the United States on all critical matters – or risk an outright invasion. Where the United States has no overriding interests, Russia has existential ones.

Russia must therefore act. In Belarus, it already has. Last year, President Alexander Lukashenko won a dubious and heavily criticized election. The Russians intervened to save Lukashenko and are now in effective control of Belarus, thereby securing the North European Plain, the primary invasion route from Europe to Moscow. This leaves Ukraine, a much larger and more important state, in Russia’s crosshairs.

Russia appears to have amassed forces along the Ukrainian border. It is believed to be a substantial contingent. If the purpose is to occupy Ukraine, it is not enough to defeat the Ukrainian army, but it could physically occupy key areas of the country. In invading a country, the need to continually detach forces to occupy and pacify various areas can rapidly overstretch your forces. So if the reports are true, this is a risky play.

Russia’s war plan is obviously secret, but the government of Ukraine has released its view of how a Russian invasion would be executed. It consists of three thrusts intended to isolate and occupy Kyiv: northward from the Crimean Peninsula, southward from Belarus and westward from Volgograd. Together, they would surround Kyiv and pass through a substantial part of Ukraine, giving them maximum opportunity for low-cost pacification.

There are three problems with the strategy. The first problem is logistical. These multi-division forces would be engaged in high-intensity maneuver and combat. All three would have to be supplied, and as they approached Kyiv they would take on a circular formation. Since it must be assumed that combat increases as movement declines, one phase would require massive amounts of “POL” – petroleum, oil and lubricants. The second phase would demand large amounts of munitions of all varieties. The possibility is high of uncoordinated pauses in advancing, leaving Russian flanks open.

The second issue is that it would create a complicated, multi-front war waged by untested troops. The Russians have not fought a multi-divisional battle like this since World War II. Their military is competent, but none of their commanders have commanded this type of battle. War games and maneuvers are valuable, but an untested force under fire for the first time needs a very sophisticated command structure. The Russians won’t know if they have one until they try it.

The third issue is the Americans, who will probably not attempt to block the advance with their own troops. Time is of the essence, but imposing friction on an enemy is valuable in itself. The U.S. is in a position to transport Polish forces, for example, to create that friction. (Assuming the Poles are willing.) But if it chose to send its own troops, it would force Russia into full-scale combat on a schedule it was not prepared for. The most important threat from the Americans, however, would be air and missile power. Their targets would be logistic nodes. In armored warfare, which seems to be the plan, the destruction of POL and munitions is the same as destroying tanks. The Russians would need to preempt this by taking out U.S. air and missile installations, very likely on a global scale. Doing this would escalate the war to world war status, and in that situation, the risk for Russia would skyrocket.

The United States recognizes the Russian threat, or at least wants Russia to believe it has recognized it. President Joe Biden’s statements on the matter imply a level of concern that suggests there would be a U.S. intervention if Russia struck. At the very least, the Russians have to factor this possibility into their war planning. The military and political implications of American intervention reduce the urgency of claiming Ukraine as a buffer zone.

Of course, the threat of invasion isn’t exclusive to this strategy. If Russia intends to occupy Ukraine, some variation will be necessary. But an invasion might simply entail taking a piece of Ukraine in the east or the north. The U.S., eager to avoid a war in the middle of Eurasia when the threat is trivial, will likely respond only with sanctions. Russia can stomach that as it threatens further penetration without taking it. This changes the political dynamic if Europe, incapable of mounting a defense, chooses to accommodate Russia.

To be sure, the entire threat might simply be an attempt to test Biden. During the Cold War, testing a new president was a Soviet routine. Doing so now could be seen as a low-risk, high-reward proposition. In fact, there are many counterarguments to my view that a full invasion of Ukraine is too complex and risky to undertake. The Russians cannot afford a defeat in their bid to secure Ukraine in the present geopolitical reality. They have time to move – that is, unless Putin, who hungers to restore the former Soviet border, sees the hand of time moving and is prepared to take a risk for the sake of glory. Perhaps so, but KGB men are trained to be careful. My bet is this is a bluff. But I wouldn’t bet the house on it.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

English, vodka monkeys, do you speak it?

Hey, I've done my part, I left out most of the swear words so it can be machine translated.

So what are we thinking, what are the chances of an invasion actually happening this time? Or is this another "Russian army didn't show up to the invasion" situation designed to jerk around the Ukrainian army and strain their logistics even further?

 

[CarlosDanger]

Never underestimate what a US president will do when their poll numbers are in the shitter. My guess nothing happens, Putin just wants assurances from a demented old man to not expand NATO eastward. Joe probably gave many concessions to Corn Pop and now the Europeans won't freeze to death.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Never underestimate what a US president will do when their poll numbers are in the shitter. My guess nothing happens, Putin just wants assurances from a demented old man to not expand NATO eastward. Joe probably gave many concessions to Corn Pop and now the Europeans won't freeze to death.

Let's also not forget what happens when a weak President is in charge. Biden is shaping up to be the weakest President since Buchanan. A man who saw military units go rogue under his command and nearly start a war with the UK, and States outright defying him leading to the secession crisis of 1860...and the civil war.

Half the US population is mutinous at the moment, which is confirmed by the shrill shrieks of the US State Media. America is in no position to fight a great power war with Russia over Ukraine.

I want to be a fly on the wall in the CIA and State Department right now as they scream at each other. The Divide and conquer media strategy that was used ruthlessly domestically has come home to roost. Russia is in a position right now to Crack America like an egg because there is no fucking way Joe Biden can convince anyone dying for Ukraine is worth it.

I am not happy about this btw. This is a fucking disaster. But the glow sticks were so much smarter then everyone else. They wanted to play reindeer games with the American people and now they are caught between two fires. On one front, a severe retreat of America's globals supremacy and on the other front full on civil war against the Federal Government if they try and force the issue.

The smartest guys in the room people. Round of applause for our unelected beaurocracy who are clearly smarter then you.

 

[Darksy DePhil]

So if the Russian’s capture Null, who gets his stuff?

They're gonna get their revenge over the Ho Ho Holocaust

 

[Jonah Hill poster]

US comments on Russia’s ‘Ukraine invasion’

The US doesn’t believe Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a decision to “invade” Ukraine, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has said, in wake of this week’s video-link talks with US President Joe Biden.

www.rt.com

US just responded to this situation:

“We still do not believe that President Putin has made a decision” to “further invade” Ukraine, Sullivan told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon.

“What President Biden did today was lay out very clearly the consequences if he chooses to move.”

On Tuesday, Sullivan – who was on the call with Putin – said the US was ready to “fortify our NATO allies on the eastern flank with additional capabilities,” which he did not specify, in case Russian troops crossed into Ukraine.

He would not disclose specific sanctions and measures the US threatened Russia with, but said that “things we did not do in 2014, we are prepared to do now.”

The ending has them believing that it’s all about wanting to take back oil from the Russians, but the officials over in Ukraine don’t seem to have any.