So today our hospital system officially went into a code brown. Leave is cancelled for staff, people are being called in on their day off, it's all hands on deck. This is because of the overwhelming number of Covid cases. The missus, who works on a Covid ward, disagrees, she says her unit is half empty and they're talking about closing it next week, but what would she know?
Today on the ABC the acting Victorian health minister (the present outbreak is so serious the real one has taken a holiday) explained that Omicron is 'a bit milder' than Delta with a fatality rate 'slightly under 1%'
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Currently we're averaging around 100,000 cases per day. This is from testing which is obviously being restricted by the government, the real number is at least 5 times more than this.
Around 60% of the total population have probably contracted the coof. But let's ignore that and assume that we're picking up ever single case.
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We're averaging about 50 deaths a day with Covid. So assuming that every single death with Omicron was caused by Omicron and assuming we're catching every case through testing that gives us a fatality rate of 0.05%, about half what we'd experience in a mild flu season.
The real number? We know that about half of Omicron cases in hospital are incidental so I think it's fairly safe to assume an equivalent with deaths. Multiply the case count by 5 to give us the real number of people catching the coof and we get an infection mortality rate of 0.005%.. This would be a very cautious estimate of how deadly Omicron is, the infection rate may be higher due to how mild the disease is, lots of people may mistake it for hay fever, how quick the symptomatic period is for many people (sometimes less than a day) and the almost total non availability of testing.
So worst case scenario Omicron Covid is 2-20 times less deadly than a mild flu. So for sure 'slightly under 1%".
BTW Delta Covid had a mortality rate between 0.1-0.3% also slightly under 1%.
As a response to this deadly wave of infections many people are refusing to leave their homes and rushing to get boosted with an experimental vaccine that's proven not to work against a disease that probably won't make them sick let alone kill them.