Russian Invasion of Ukraine (2022): Thread 1 - Ukrainian Liars vs Russian Liars with Air and Artillery Superiority

[Fcret]

Interesting case made here: Russia doesn't move to occupy, just blasts the Ukrainian army from afar and then besieges Kiev to demand a political settlement. Avoids the costs of the western equipment that has been provided (short range anti tank missiles and MANPADS), avoids areas where insurgency would be most effective(urban), and leverages Russia's largest advantage over the ukranians (ballistic/cruise missiles and air power).

People are expecting the Russians to charge across the border like Poland 1939, they may copy the Americans and just blast the shit out of the Ukrainians for a few weeks before crossing over. Then I suspect they will see how much Ukranian resistance remains before they go for unequal peace treaty vs puppet government (the Ukranian oligarchs only interest is self interest and some may align with the Russians if that's the way the wind is blowing)

Moscow’s Compellence Strategy - Foreign Policy Research Institute

How ambitious are Russia's foreign policy objectives, and how much force does Moscow believe it must employ to achieve them? Moscow has submitted various

www.fpri.org

This would be the dream scenario for the Americans. They've got C-RAM plus god knows what else and it's cheap enough to deploy.

No, if Russia wants to force the issue, it has to charge across the border because it's not going to win an artillery fight against US tech. And Russia knows this - "boots on the ground" has been a nightmare scenario for any US politician since 2008 and so pursuing courses that require American boots on the ground is the best way to cuck Uncle Sam out of an effective intervention.

 

[mutual decucktion]

This would be the dream scenario for the Americans. They've got C-RAM plus god knows what else and it's cheap enough to deploy.

No, if Russia wants to force the issue, it has to charge across the border because it's not going to win an artillery fight against US tech. And Russia knows this - "boots on the ground" has been a nightmare scenario for any US politician since 2008 and so pursuing courses that require American boots on the ground is the best way to cuck Uncle Sam out of an effective intervention.

Yeah this might have been true two decades ago. Currently Russia has both hypersonic missiles and hypersonic missile defense, and the U.S. has a string of failed tests, hoping for hypersonic tech by 2023.

Russia has been going through huge and practical military modernization initiatives in its western region. People keep spouting the same memes about Russia and China being behind the U.S. on military advancement, and nobody is evaluating the capabilities from first principles.

In a world with hypersonic missiles, the U.S. has to exert power with its AEGIS equipped ships, of which there are less than a hundred. They are supposedly capable of missile defense. This becomes complex with tensions in the South China Sea and multiple potential fronts.

If a world war will break out, it will be within the next few weeks while China and Russia push their temporary asymmetric capabilities.

 

[Only A Retard Sometimes]

Yeah this might have been true two decades ago. Currently Russia has both hypersonic missiles and hypersonic missile defense, and the U.S. has a string of failed tests, hoping for hypersonic tech by 2023.

Russia has been going through huge and practical military modernization initiatives in its western region. People keep spouting the same memes about Russia and China being behind the U.S. on military advancement, and nobody is evaluating the capabilities from first principles.

In a world with hypersonic missiles, the U.S. has to exert power with its AEGIS equipped ships, of which there are less than a hundred. They are supposedly capable of missile defense. This becomes complex with tensions in the South China Sea and multiple potential fronts.

If a world war will break out, it will be within the next few weeks while China and Russia push their temporary asymmetric capabilities.

Hypersonic is not nearly the advantage you think it is, and the US expects to equip the first Army unit with the Dark Eagle LRHW later this year and the naval version after that. Ballistic misiile defense is not hard because of the speed, its hard because of the altitude that ICBM's and SLBM's fly. Conventionally armed hypersonics do not leave the atmosphere and are just as susceptible to interception as anything else if they are identified.

 

[Clockwork_PurBle]

China not taking Taiwan is, I think, more important than Russia not taking Ukraine, but if Russia takes Ukraine, do you really think they'd stop there?

 

[Only A Retard Sometimes]

China not taking Taiwan is, I think, more important than Russia not taking Ukraine, but if Russia takes Ukraine, do you really think they'd stop there?

Russia cannot take Ukraine and keep it. they don't have the men or the money to occupy a country of 45 million that hates them.

other news: UK NLAW rocket launchers are being delivered 2 C-17 loads a day. the US is sending javelins and other ammunition the baltic states are also lending arms.

 

[mutual decucktion]

Hypersonic is not nearly the advantage you think it is, and the US expects to equip the first Army unit with the Dark Eagle LRHW later this year and the naval version after that. Ballistic misiile defense is not hard because of the speed, its hard because of the altitude that ICBM's and SLBM's fly. Conventionally armed hypersonics do not leave the atmosphere and are just as susceptible to interception as anything else if they are identified.

I mean… this is just wrong. MaRV and lack of investment in atmospheric detection systems mean that hypersonic weapons are an extreme issue for existing missile defense. In a world with maneuverability, even with associated drag, speed does become important. Hypersonic missile interceptors also mean that every time you launch an ICBM you have to worry about fallout in areas much closer to launch. The problem people thought was intrinsic to hypersonic missiles and why they couldn’t be used this way was accuracy. China claims to have solved that problem. Tensions in Ukraine escalated at almost the exact time as a successful Chinese hypersonic test.

US propaganda rags all parrot the ‘you shouldn’t worry about hypersonic missiles because they’re not strategic’ line. This is a cope. US hypersonic research was deprioritized due to COVID.

 

[CryptoHermit]

Most truly don't care who rules over them as long as they can keep a roof over their heads with 3 meals a day.

 

[Clockwork_PurBle]

Underground S2 dropped a new Ukraine video today. I don't remember seeing it ITT but I find the possible mass graves psyop interesting.

"Biden has made a lot of gaffs"

 

[Samson Pumpkin Jr.]

Bad ending​

It is over. All attempts at compromise, the efforts of years of diplomatic manoeuvres on the issue of Ukraine, have failed. This morning Russian troops crossed the Ukrainian border from both Belarus and Russia. The United States of America issued an ultimatum: remove all military personnel from Ukraine or face severe economic and military reprisals. After some hours, they refused. American fighters and bombers are on their way to Russia for "limited strikes with no boots on the ground" and the western world has completely embargoed all Russian goods. Although many countries have already declared neutrality, it is clear, even without a declaration of war, WW3 is upon us.

 

[Blake Chortles]

Bad ending​

It is over. All attempts at compromise, the efforts of years of diplomatic manoeuvres on the issue of Ukraine, have failed. This morning Russian troops crossed the Ukrainian border from both Belarus and Russia. The United States of America issued an ultimatum: remove all military personnel from Ukraine or face severe economic and military reprisals. After some hours, they refused. American fighters and bombers are on their way to Russia for "limited strikes with no boots on the ground" and the western world has completely embargoed all Russian goods. Although many countries have already declared neutrality, it is clear, even without a declaration of war, WW3 is upon us.

We've explicitly said like 3 times in the last several months we aren't going to physically do shit to them. Strongly worded letters and sanctions thats it.

 

[DumbDude42]

We've explicitly said like 3 times in the last several months we aren't going to physically do shit to them. Strongly worded letters and sanctions thats it.

yeah america (and, by extension all of NATO) will not jump into a serious war unless it's a direct attack against an actual alliance member state, which ukraine is not.
neither is taiwan by the way, so china might indeed start testing the waters if russia succeeds at whatever they're planning in ukraine.

 

[Samson Pumpkin Jr.]

We've explicitly said like 3 times in the last several months we aren't going to physically do shit to them. Strongly worded letters and sanctions thats it.

America is a country in which not a single person knows who is actually in charge. America either lies or is incapable of keeping promises all the time. They said they would never admit the Baltics into NATO, yet they did. 4 American presidents came into office promising to take troops out of sandland. Obviously the presidents aren't actually in charge because that didn't happen. Take everything America says with a grain of salt. The government is totally dysfunctional.

 

[Only A Retard Sometimes]

We've explicitly said like 3 times in the last several months we aren't going to physically do shit to them. Strongly worded letters and sanctions thats it.

Exactly. all the sperging about WW3 particulary in the biden thread is so stupid. the US will give Ukraine money and guns and information.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

Maybe they wont invade. Russia has succeeded in breaking France and Germany away from the US as they've agreed to talks on Ukraine without the US at the table. This is big.

France, Germany, Russia to hold four-way talks on Ukraine in Paris | BreakingNews.ie

Political advisers from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany will hold 'Normandy format' talks

www.breakingnews.ie

The best war is one that's won without a single shot.

With western glowies out of Kiev, Ukraine may end up with a more pro-Russian president.

 

[Only A Retard Sometimes]

The best war is one that's won without a single shot.

With western glowies out of Kiev, Ukraine may end up with a more pro-Russian president.

alot of Ukrainians have been killed or made homeless by Russia since 2013. I doubt they will become belarus 2.0

 

[Richardface]

alot of Ukrainians have been killed or made homeless by Russia since 2013. I doubt they will become belarus 2.0

America literally nuked japan twice and used terror bombing tactics against the rest of their cities but they became besties in the immediate post war. As LBJ said, once you have them by the balls their hearts and minds soon follow

Tho at this point its hard to see how Russia could make Ukrainians think their interests are aligned

 

[mutual decucktion]

Exactly. all the sperging about WW3 particulary in the biden thread is so stupid. the US will give Ukraine money and guns and information.

Yes, the three countries, Russia the U.S. and Ukraine.

Baltic states are freaked out. Places like Lithuania have spent their defense budgets building infrastructure for U.S. troops. If they can avoid it in any way, they do not want the front to be their doorstep.

If it becomes clear the U.S. is not intervening in Russian land grabs, do you think they would rather roll the dice with ground troops at their border or Ukraine’s?

This will be a multi country conflict if shots are fired, even if it won’t be NATO hopping in from the start.

 

[Fcret]

America literally nuked japan twice and used terror bombing tactics against the rest of their cities but they became besties in the immediate post war. As LBJ said, once you have them by the balls their hearts and minds soon follow

Tho at this point its hard to see how Russia could make Ukrainians think their interests are aligned

America also poured billions of dollars into Japan and gave them all the economic access they had been fighting the war for in the first place, just under an American-controlled order. It's very difficult to see how Ukraine will actually become more prosperous as a Russian suzerainty.

 

[Josterman]

From disclose tv

Biden Weighs Deploying Thousands of Troops to Eastern Europe and Baltics

The president is also considering deploying warships and aircraft to NATO allies, in what would be a major shift from its restrained stance on Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Still Anonymous For This]

From disclose tv

View attachment 2913867

Biden Weighs Deploying Thousands of Troops to Eastern Europe and Baltics

The president is also considering deploying warships and aircraft to NATO allies, in what would be a major shift from its restrained stance on Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

I will be so fucking ass-mad if I'm killed in a thermonuclear war between a senile geriatric and a fucking midget with a Napoleon complex.