Global Depression 2022 - Time to do the Breadline Boogaloo!

[Beavis]

If you flipped a coin to decide what the FED policy moving forward would be you'd have about as good of a guess as any "expert", quite literally they are between a rock and a hard place. Their options are 1. Raise rates to fight inflation and watch the everything bubble implode eroding all confidence in western financial systems and quite possibly killing the dollar in the process, or 2. Keep rates down, or dare I say lower them further, and print to infinity almost certainly guaranteeing the dollars death. Really we're headed for the same outcome either way, its just a matter of which path we take.

I‘d prefer a deflationary collapse as supposed to turning the dollar into toilet paper. The FED will raise rates, then panic and slash rateswhen the economy pukes because it can’t even withstand rates of 2.5%.

 

[Sped Xing]

I‘d prefer a deflationary collapse as supposed to turning the dollar into toilet paper. The FED will raise rates, then panic and slash rateswhen the economy pukes because it can’t even withstand rates of 2.5%.

Don't you DARE.


Seriously though, much deflation and I don't think Uncle Sam can even meet minimum payments, and in that case won't the dollar tank anyway?

 

[MadStan]

If we keep seeing the top Crypto coins going down, I do wonder how cash strapped some of these exchanges are going to end up. I mean many places not only have to give customers their cash-outs, but they've promised handsome stacking interest rates to boot with those obligations.

I doubt it can sustain a real draw-down and I'd imagine many whales right now are buying their friends coins just to try and bolster the price. I know this is going on, but it can not be sustained.

2 whales each have 100,000 bitcoin, it isn't hard to "buy and sell" on exchange stock give appearance of trade; at whatever price to try to manipulate the market (to actually get turkeys to buy or sell) as long as both whales simply decide at the ed of the day to transfers back and back what they started with.

But the idea of the USD turning into toilet paper is preposterous.

 

[Maurice Caine]

But the idea of the USD turning into toilet paper is preposterous.

It has to happen at some point. I always heard that when people stop believing in the dollar it would collapse overnight.

 

[MadStan]

It has to happen at some point. I always heard that when people stop believing in the dollar it would collapse overnight.

But it isn't happening and nor is it going to happen in the next decade.

It is sensationalism on steroids.

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

How long do we have, realistically?

4 years max, its almost impossible to predict something like this with any true accuracy.

I‘d prefer a deflationary collapse as supposed to turning the dollar into toilet paper. The FED will raise rates, then panic and slash rateswhen the economy pukes because it can’t even withstand rates of 2.5%.

Can you explain to me why you think a deflationary collapse is even possible at this point? I hear this all the time and no one ever has a good explanation.

 

[Ancient Pioneer]

Can you explain to me why you think a deflationary collapse is even possible at this point? I hear this all the time and no one ever has a good explanation.

There was a bit of deflation in 2009 or 2010, I forget, but the circumstances were entirely different, as is the total amount of money printed. There is absolutely no way on earth the US will go through widespread deflation to the point that it would cause severe economic problems, the only time the US saw a large amount of deflation after the Fed was established was the early 1930s as people cut expenditures to the bone and just saved cash rather than spending it, both corporate and citizen. The complete halting of liquidity in the economy is what caused that situation, the very basis of the US economy is far different from 90 years ago so expecting the same is foolish.

An inflationary crisis is the method the US dollar will die, pay attention to the US-Ukraine-Russia spat right now, Biden keeps bragging about how sanctions will crush Russia but it completely misses the point that Russia is largely disconnected from the global economy the US dominates, has very low debt-to-gdp and I believe has a very large gold reserve explicitly for this purpose, something near 600b in gold reserves, far larger than the US Dollar reserves. Sanctioning Russia screws over the EU, not Russia, furthermore China will accept gold to ensure its belt-and-road project's success, if anything gold is a better option for China to accept than taking on more US Dollars, Biden is actively going to destroy the petrodollar peacocking over Ukraine. Once Russia forces the EU and other patrons to pay for Natural Gas in Euro or gold the petrodollar takes a massive hit. All of that inflation the US exports out into the global market returns back to the US with insane force, 10%+ years of inflation guaranteed. Biden is too incompetent to understand the massive self-own he is about to inflict on the US, Trump as a business major understood the oil business quite well and most of his antics during the 2017-2018 years were about slashing profitability of oil down to the bone because ISIS was accepting any currency for their oil.

 

[Honest Coyote]

There was a bit of deflation in 2009 or 2010, I forget, but the circumstances were entirely different, as is the total amount of money printed. There is absolutely no way on earth the US will go through widespread deflation to the point that it would cause severe economic problems, the only time the US saw a large amount of deflation after the Fed was established was the early 1930s as people cut expenditures to the bone and just saved cash rather than spending it, both corporate and citizen. The complete halting of liquidity in the economy is what caused that situation, the very basis of the US economy is far different from 90 years ago so expecting the same is foolish.

An inflationary crisis is the method the US dollar will die, pay attention to the US-Ukraine-Russia spat right now, Biden keeps bragging about how sanctions will crush Russia but it completely misses the point that Russia is largely disconnected from the global economy the US dominates, has very low debt-to-gdp and I believe has a very large gold reserve explicitly for this purpose, something near 600b in gold reserves, far larger than the US Dollar reserves. Sanctioning Russia screws over the EU, not Russia, furthermore China will accept gold to ensure its belt-and-road project's success, if anything gold is a better option for China to accept than taking on more US Dollars, Biden is actively going to destroy the petrodollar peacocking over Ukraine. Once Russia forces the EU and other patrons to pay for Natural Gas in Euro or gold the petrodollar takes a massive hit. All of that inflation the US exports out into the global market returns back to the US with insane force, 10%+ years of inflation guaranteed. Biden is too incompetent to understand the massive self-own he is about to inflict on the US, Trump as a business major understood the oil business quite well and most of his antics during the 2017-2018 years were about slashing profitability of oil down to the bone because ISIS was accepting any currency for their oil.

Also, this gets out of economics into politics, but the US defense budget is so large it umbrellas over a lot of the EU. If the dollar starts to slide, a lot of European countries are going to be very exposed and will either have to risk having minimal military protection or make massive cuts to their safety nets, which is political suicide for the politicians. If Russia wants to play nasty at that point, they'll back a whole bunch of separatist movements (Catalonia, Scotland, individual Greek islands, etc.). Force the EU into developing a pan-Europe army, which would be a huge clusterfuck because every politician would be looking to maximize the gibs (contracts, kickbacks, bases, etc.) their nation gets while minimizing their finiancial contributions and passing the buck to Germany and a lesser degree France; or transform Brussels into a toothless yappie dog with no real power over the individual countries.

 

[z0mb0]

Also, this gets out of economics into politics, but the US defense budget is so large it umbrellas over a lot of the EU. If the dollar starts to slide, a lot of European countries are going to be very exposed and will either have to risk having minimal military protection or make massive cuts to their safety nets, which is political suicide for the politicians. If Russia wants to play nasty at that point, they'll back a whole bunch of separatist movements (Catalonia, Scotland, individual Greek islands, etc.). Force the EU into developing a pan-Europe army, which would be a huge clusterfuck because every politician would be looking to maximize the gibs (contracts, kickbacks, bases, etc.) their nation gets while minimizing their finiancial contributions and passing the buck to Germany and a lesser degree France; or transform Brussels into a toothless yappie dog with no real power over the individual countries.

What real gibs would there be at that point? If everything goes into economic free fall those poorer countries are going to tell them to fuck off before anyone can react at best ortake what they can then tell then fuck off worst. and that's not considering the internal strife from muslim groups and other groups seeing a chance to take power.

 

[Honest Coyote]

What real gibs would there be at that point? If everything goes into economic free fall those poorer countries are going to tell them to fuck off before anyone can react at best ortake what they can then tell then fuck off worst. and that's not considering the internal strife from muslim groups and other groups seeing a chance to take power.

You're probably right that I'm still thinking in terms of how it works "now" instead of "If then". I was thinking of the bloat with the American military, such as expensive manufacturing contracts, military bases as jobs, etc.

 

[z0mb0]

You're probably right that I'm still thinking in terms of how it works "now" instead of "If then". I was thinking of the bloat with the American military, such as expensive manufacturing contracts, military bases as jobs, etc.

The bases get claimed by whatever country it's in, the contracts and everything will end up going bust. If things freefall in the U.S. there will be enough going on that will need intense immediate attention things outside are going to go unthought about and frankly stolen if it can be. Everyone wants u,s weapons and we'll be so fucked logistically the likely hood of setting things up to start healing the issue in under 4-5 years are slim.

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

Also, this gets out of economics into politics, but the US defense budget is so large it umbrellas over a lot of the EU. If the dollar starts to slide, a lot of European countries are going to be very exposed and will either have to risk having minimal military protection or make massive cuts to their safety nets, which is political suicide for the politicians. If Russia wants to play nasty at that point, they'll back a whole bunch of separatist movements (Catalonia, Scotland, individual Greek islands, etc.). Force the EU into developing a pan-Europe army, which would be a huge clusterfuck because every politician would be looking to maximize the gibs (contracts, kickbacks, bases, etc.) their nation gets while minimizing their finiancial contributions and passing the buck to Germany and a lesser degree France; or transform Brussels into a toothless yappie dog with no real power over the individual countries.

Why does everyone think Putin wants to invade europe? He doesn't even really want to invade Ukraine, this whole nonsense with respect to Ukraine could've been dropped if NATO didn't insist upon adding them to their ranks.

A gold backed digital Ruble you say? In these tenuous economic times you say?

 

[MadStan]

There are a number of indicators this morning (Monday 24th Jan 2020) that are flashing red, and they are all in unison. I haven't seen such a board of red indicators since 2008.

I know people on here have different point of views, but I'll say it again, in a downturn you'll want cash. You may whine cash will lose 4% this year, but many many other asset classes will or could lose far more than that. 4% loss sounds downright lovely compared to what other assets will lose.

I saw one particular red flag on Tether and the backing of this "stable coin" and I have to believe that if there is a run on crypto's being cashed out, that the exchanges will not be capable of full redemption. I've not doubt many who got their crypto years ago cheap will simply ride it out, but the problem with the pumping is that there is actually enough mum and pop investors in Crypto that they hold enough stock in it to cause a crash if they cash out. Crypto MUST have new cash in to survive properly and people are not buying it right at this moment.

Perhaps Bitcoin will go to the moon by the end of 2022 or 2023. Who can really say. but right now I think I'd be happier with a bitcoin cashed out than to be incapable of cashing it out at all in 45 days, or being paid 20K for it all because the price has dropped through lack of buyers.

The company behind Tether is in court February with demands for it's backing of its coin to be revealed. Whether that case wins or loses I think is beside the point, the test for it is going to happen if the cashing out keeps pace.

 

[Kramer on the phone]

Why does everyone think Putin wants to invade europe? He doesn't even really want to invade Ukraine, this whole nonsense with respect to Ukraine could've been dropped if NATO didn't insist upon adding them to their ranks.

the way people are talking i'd say its specifically for this outcome. a little war to force Biden to throw him in the briar patch so to speak. As has been shown, Biden and his people are playing by a super outdated rule book and can barely solve shit. we're at 15% inflation despite 2021 being a relatively ok year. Beyond that the environmentalists have all but forced Germany and other EU countries to become whores for Russia's oil pipe. Why not triple down? It also helps an old political theory that if the US doesn't feed the gold diggers known as European countries then they would immediately run into the hands of sweet mother Russia. If the US goes kaput, then Europe is defeneless and if forced to fight will end up being fucked by their own civilians so hard that whatever government is still standing will be beholden to russia. China can have everyone else, Russia gets europe.

There are a number of indicators this morning (Monday 24th Jan 2020) that are flashing red, and they are all in unison. I haven't seen such a board of red indicators since 2008.

I know people on here have different point of views, but I'll say it again, in a downturn you'll want cash. You may whine cash will lose 4% this year, but many many other asset classes will or could lose far more than that. 4% loss sounds downright lovely compared to what other assets will lose.

I saw one particular red flag on Tether and the backing of this "stable coin" and I have to believe that if there is a run on crypto's being cashed out, that the exchanges will not be capable of full redemption. I've not doubt many who got their crypto years ago cheap will simply ride it out, but the problem with the pumping is that there is actually enough mum and pop investors in Crypto that they hold enough stock in it to cause a crash if they cash out. Crypto MUST have new cash in to survive properly and people are not buying it right at this moment.

Perhaps Bitcoin will go to the moon by the end of 2022 or 2023. Who can really say. but right now I think I'd be happier with a bitcoin cashed out than to be incapable of cashing it out at all in 45 days, or being paid 20K for it all because the price has dropped through lack of buyers.

The company behind Tether is in court February with demands for it's backing of its coin to be revealed. Whether that case wins or loses I think is beside the point, the test for it is going to happen if the cashing out keeps pace.

Tether has been using fake money since it started, the stable coin isn't a real stable coin. anyone with a brain knows that, Also as we have seen, what happens if these exchanges just give people the finger and run? nothing really. I'm just amazed how much value crypto has lost. thats a literal year gone.

Honestly though I'm going to go all in on them allowing rapid inflation, it might fuck over the banks worse than deflation but i think it'll be easier for them to pretend all is well vs the deflation. they already lie about how fast its risen by 50% and the fiscally responsible usually vote conservative anyway. so technically they're just sticking it to their enemies anyways.

 

[Meat Target]

Let the hedgies hit the floor
Let the hedgies hit the floor

 

[BONE_Buddy]

So what are we betting this bottoms out to?

 

[Non-breath oblige]

 

[Ruin]

Banker scum killing themselves in 2008 was funny and it will still be funny in 2022.

 

[LillWeeb]

Banker scum killing themselves in 2008 was funny and it will still be funny in 2022.

Agreed I want to see globohomo become brokeohomo.

 

[Non-breath oblige]

For context, Matt Damon appeared in a crypto commercial recently: