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US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians
- Thread starter SeniorFuckFace
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Fox News’s polling has long been some of President Biden’s best, showing his approval ratings staying in the mid- to high 40s in recent months, even as others showed it declining further.
But its latest release reinforces something we’ve seen in plenty of other polling: that Biden’s remaining support, such as it exists, is rather soft.
The Fox poll shows 47 percent of people continue to approve of Biden’s performance as president, but significantly fewer than that say they would either definitely or probably vote to reelect him. Just 36 percent say that, while 6 in 10 say they at least lean against voting for him in 2024.
Much like waning presidential approval ratings, that isn’t too far afield from the new political normal. In April 2017 and January 2018, Donald Trump’s “reelect” numbers were already down to 36 percent and 35 percent, respectively. Barack Obama’s worst number on this was 39 percent, in September 2010.
In Biden’s case, though, the 60 percent who say they would probably vote for someone else is a bigger number than any poll testing either Trump or Obama on the same question. And Biden’s negative-24-point spread is worse than Trump’s worst — negative-21.
Fox’s Democratic pollster spotlighted something others have: that this appears to be in part a symptom of the Democratic base not being that keen on Biden. And maybe, the argument goes, it means less than meets the eye, electorally speaking.
“These certainly aren’t numbers the Biden team wants, but Democratic defection is the main reason his generic ‘reelect’ is low,” said Chris Anderson, the Democratic half of Fox’s bipartisan polling team. “It’s safe to assume most of these Democrats will back him if he is the nominee and the only choice against a Republican.”
There’s certainly something to that, and the fact that Obama’s “reelect” dropped to 39 percent two years before he won reelection somewhat comfortably shows how this number can be oversold. People like the idea of having an alternative if they’re not in love with an incumbent; partisanship often takes over when they’re given a binary choice.
But actually, despite Anderson’s analysis, this appears to be less about Democrats being wishy-washy on Biden than independents being overwhelmingly unenthused. And that’s perhaps more ominous for Democrats given that those are voters you’re more likely to lose.
To be sure, Biden’s low “reelect” is in large part about Democrats; just 48 percent say they would “definitely” vote to reelect him.
But that’s not all that different from where Obama or even Trump were. In October 2009, 50 percent of Democrats said they would definitely vote to reelect Obama. In January 2010, it was 46 percent. And in September 2010 — Obama’s worst poll on this question — it was down to 41 percent, lower even than where Biden is today.
Even Trump, for all the talk about how devoted his base was, was generally around 50 percent of Republicans saying they would definitely vote for him again.
So why has Biden’s “reelect” dropped lower than Obama’s low? Independents. The latest Fox News poll shows just 6 percent say they would definitely reelect Biden, while 15 percent say they would probably vote to reelect him. The combined 21 percent “reelect” for Biden among independents is significantly lower than Obama’s low of 32 percent.
Independents also cut against Biden more than they did against Trump. While independents said they leaned toward voting for someone else over Trump 59 percent to 22 percent in December 2018, Biden’s deficit is currently 72-21.
It’s an infrequently asked survey question, so it’s certainly worth collecting more data. But this has been one of Biden’s better polls to date. And it’s worth noting what happened around some of these polls. After Obama’s worst one, in September 2010, Republicans two months later won massively in the midterm elections. And shortly before the above-mentioned December 2018 poll, Trump too lost significantly in his first midterms — before going on to lose the presidency as well.
These are hardly the first data to show Biden losing significant ground on independents; but they seem to be a case in point.
But its latest release reinforces something we’ve seen in plenty of other polling: that Biden’s remaining support, such as it exists, is rather soft.
The Fox poll shows 47 percent of people continue to approve of Biden’s performance as president, but significantly fewer than that say they would either definitely or probably vote to reelect him. Just 36 percent say that, while 6 in 10 say they at least lean against voting for him in 2024.
Much like waning presidential approval ratings, that isn’t too far afield from the new political normal. In April 2017 and January 2018, Donald Trump’s “reelect” numbers were already down to 36 percent and 35 percent, respectively. Barack Obama’s worst number on this was 39 percent, in September 2010.
In Biden’s case, though, the 60 percent who say they would probably vote for someone else is a bigger number than any poll testing either Trump or Obama on the same question. And Biden’s negative-24-point spread is worse than Trump’s worst — negative-21.
Fox’s Democratic pollster spotlighted something others have: that this appears to be in part a symptom of the Democratic base not being that keen on Biden. And maybe, the argument goes, it means less than meets the eye, electorally speaking.
“These certainly aren’t numbers the Biden team wants, but Democratic defection is the main reason his generic ‘reelect’ is low,” said Chris Anderson, the Democratic half of Fox’s bipartisan polling team. “It’s safe to assume most of these Democrats will back him if he is the nominee and the only choice against a Republican.”
There’s certainly something to that, and the fact that Obama’s “reelect” dropped to 39 percent two years before he won reelection somewhat comfortably shows how this number can be oversold. People like the idea of having an alternative if they’re not in love with an incumbent; partisanship often takes over when they’re given a binary choice.
But actually, despite Anderson’s analysis, this appears to be less about Democrats being wishy-washy on Biden than independents being overwhelmingly unenthused. And that’s perhaps more ominous for Democrats given that those are voters you’re more likely to lose.
To be sure, Biden’s low “reelect” is in large part about Democrats; just 48 percent say they would “definitely” vote to reelect him.
But that’s not all that different from where Obama or even Trump were. In October 2009, 50 percent of Democrats said they would definitely vote to reelect Obama. In January 2010, it was 46 percent. And in September 2010 — Obama’s worst poll on this question — it was down to 41 percent, lower even than where Biden is today.
Even Trump, for all the talk about how devoted his base was, was generally around 50 percent of Republicans saying they would definitely vote for him again.
So why has Biden’s “reelect” dropped lower than Obama’s low? Independents. The latest Fox News poll shows just 6 percent say they would definitely reelect Biden, while 15 percent say they would probably vote to reelect him. The combined 21 percent “reelect” for Biden among independents is significantly lower than Obama’s low of 32 percent.
Independents also cut against Biden more than they did against Trump. While independents said they leaned toward voting for someone else over Trump 59 percent to 22 percent in December 2018, Biden’s deficit is currently 72-21.
It’s an infrequently asked survey question, so it’s certainly worth collecting more data. But this has been one of Biden’s better polls to date. And it’s worth noting what happened around some of these polls. After Obama’s worst one, in September 2010, Republicans two months later won massively in the midterm elections. And shortly before the above-mentioned December 2018 poll, Trump too lost significantly in his first midterms — before going on to lose the presidency as well.
These are hardly the first data to show Biden losing significant ground on independents; but they seem to be a case in point.
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- Sep 10, 2021
Ngl that's the most cognizant I've seen him during his tenure
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- Aug 17, 2018
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Now that's the biggest lie in this thread yet.
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- May 28, 2020
God I hope so, the fallout of that would be hilarious.
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- Nov 29, 2019
HE IS ONE STEP AWAY FROM SAYING NIGGER
Kiwibros,is this the year? Is Biden going to finally say it???
Oxous
kiwifarms.net
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- Aug 3, 2021
It was a stupid question. And God knows Fox News journos need to get shit on more often.
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- Jan 3, 2017
Bets for when he drops the gamer word needs to added as a poll to the thread.
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- Feb 5, 2020
Imagine this happening, how would the MSM spin it?
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- May 14, 2021
Literally just here for takes by Gehenna and SCSI, the rest of y’all are lame.
jk, love y’all *kissy noises*
jk, love y’all *kissy noises*
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Raoul_Duke
kiwifarms.net
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- Jan 26, 2021
Well, at least I'm not threadbanned from this...yet. Might as well make the most of it.
So, what flavor of fedposting is everyone hankering for today?
So, what flavor of fedposting is everyone hankering for today?
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- Aug 22, 2020
wtf I love based Joe Biden now?!
Although Doocy is an actual journalist not a Democrat ball washer
Although Doocy is an actual journalist not a Democrat ball washer
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- Sep 19, 2018
Fuck jannies and fuck juice
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- Jul 30, 2016
Could you imagine the response from CNN and WaPo if Drumpf did this?
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- May 31, 2020
breaking: Ukrainian official says the N word without saying the N word
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- Mar 15, 2016
Completely ignore it/pretend he said something else, or mealy-mouthed justification of it by claiming it was quoted out of context or something like that, backed up with war is peace, freedom is slavery style """"fact checking"""" from snopes et al.
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- Aug 2, 2021
You could call this thread cock-sucking faggot brigade, and I'd still come here as long as Gehenna was giving his hot takes. Fucking Jannies shitting up what already works.
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- Jan 12, 2017
Good, previous thread was just moving too fast and got too big to really keep up with. You just can't turn your back on a Joe thread for even half a day lest you get left far behind and can't catch back up. Also big threads are so stupid they don't start you at the last unread post, so I'm just going to mark my checkpoint territory here. 
Consider this Year 2 since Joe's just celebrated his first year of fuck ups, so expecting this to also get closed this time next year/after the midterms blows up.
Consider this Year 2 since Joe's just celebrated his first year of fuck ups, so expecting this to also get closed this time next year/after the midterms blows up.
Brahma
kiwifarms.net
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- Jul 15, 2019
So don't do it. The debate use blah blah tactic is probably not fit for purpose in a forum this size.
Just threadban or sectionban the offender and throw a tempban at anyone pinging them after the fact.
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