Russian Invasion of Ukraine (2022): Thread 1 - Ukrainian Liars vs Russian Liars with Air and Artillery Superiority

[Techpriest]

That's all show. Let's talk sausage.

What does Putin have to profit from an invasion that he hasn't already gotten out of NATO?

Annexation of historical Russian territory or a buffer state. This is the entire reason the 2014 shit happened. Quit being retarded and remember it’s down the road and not across the street.

 

[Breadbassket]

The USA is moving more soldiers to Poland:

U.S. sending 3,000 more troops to Poland amid fresh Ukraine invasion warnings

The U.S. is sending 3,000 more troops to Poland as the Biden administration issued new warnings that Russia was poised to invade Ukraine at any moment.

Washington and London, meanwhile, are urging their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately.

The alarms were the most strident to date of a crisis that began last fall as Russia significantly built up troops along the Ukrainian border, and they came as diplomatic efforts to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to abandon thoughts of invasion appear to, at best, have stalled out.

The warnings also come as Russia kicked off a major military exercise in Belarus with tens of thousands of troops, leading to new concerns that the push into Ukraine could come under the guise of the drills.

Three official sources in Washington and Europe said intelligence shared with them by the United States pinpointed Feb. 16 as a possible start date for the invasion. Publicly, however, aides to President Joe Biden would not confirm a specific date other than to say that — counter to much public speculation and some previous assessments from Washington — an invasion could begin before the Feb. 20 end of the Beijing Winter Olympics.

On Friday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Infantry Brigade Combat Team to Poland, a senior DoD official told POLITICO. The contingent will add to forces ordered to deploy there last week and will bring the total number of U.S. troops sent to Poland and Germany to 5,000. Additionally, 1,000 soldiers based in Germany were also sent to Romania last week. The U.S. also sent four U.K.-based F-15 fighters to Poland.

The troops are being deployed to reassure NATO allies and “deter any potential aggression against NATO’s eastern flank,” the Pentagon official said. These troops are in addition to the 8,500 the Biden administration pledged to make available to join the NATO Response Force should Putin move into Ukraine.

The head of Norway’s military intelligence service, Vice Adm. Nils Andreas Stensønes, told reporters in Oslo on Friday that the Russians have “all they need to carry everything out, from a minor invasion in the east to minor attacks here and there in Ukraine, or a complete invasion, with, possibly, an occupation of all or parts of Ukraine.”

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Friday implored U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine within the next 24 to 48 hours. He told reporters that he was not saying Putin had decided to invade, but made clear that the signs were there. He also spelled out what could happen.

“If a Russian attack on Ukraine proceeds, it is likely to begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks that could obviously kill civilians without regard to their nationality,” Sullivan said.

If a new thrust into Ukraine takes place, Russian forces are poised to move from several directions in a multi-pronged attack that could force Ukrainian troops to defend in several directions at once.

There are well over 100,000 troops arrayed along the Ukrainian border, stretching from Crimea in the south to Belarus in the north. Satellite photos show that the arc of troops is well-stocked with tanks, armored infantry carriers, missile defense systems and deadly multiple rocket launchers, all just miles from Ukraine’s border.

In the Black Sea, a large flotilla of amphibious ships has arrived carrying hundreds of Russian naval infantry along with their armored amphibious vehicles that could pour ashore near the city of Odessa.

The Kremlin also announced that it would hold live-fire naval drills in the area Feb. 13-19, essentially blocking swaths of the waterway around Odessa and severing access to Ukrainian ports on the Sea of Azov.

The exercises, to be conducted by the Black Sea fleet, will likely include the missile cruiser Moskva, several guided-missile frigates, corvettes and mine-hunting ships, and diesel-powered submarines.

In response, Germany and Spain have committed to sending several fighter jets to assist Bulgaria and Romania in monitoring movements in the Black Sea.

In a statement late Friday, the U.K. urged British nationals to “leave now via commercial means while they remain available,” while the Netherlands, Norway and Israel all issued statements warning their citizens against travel to Ukraine, Belarus and Russia.

A senior Polish government official, speaking anonymously to discuss sensitive intelligence, told POLITICO that a Russian offensive in the coming days is “certainly possible.”

“[The] Russian army concentration is unprecedented” along the Ukraine border, the Polish official said. “But it is at least equally likely that we might face something less than outright large-scale conflict. Provocations, smaller or bigger incidents here and there, little green men etc. — that’s Putin’s playbook.”

 

[CWCissey]

That's all show. Let's talk sausage.

What does Putin have to profit from an invasion that he hasn't already gotten out of NATO?

An official buffer state.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

Annexation of historical Russian territory or a buffer state. This is the entire reason the 2014 shit happened. Quit being retarded and remember it’s down the road and not across the street.

You're forgetting that he doesn't need direct control over Ukraine for it to be a buffer state. He just needs it to remain in a state of "conflict" to not be eligible for NATO membership. That doesn't require occupying a territory.

 

[Übertroon]

Annexation of historical Russian territory or a buffer state. This is the entire reason the 2014 shit happened. Quit being retarded and remember it’s down the road and not across the street.

Occupying Crimea didn't cause any military engagements though and was a strategic concern as Russia feared Ukraine might revoke the agreement for Russia's naval bases on the peninsula. The Russians were way more careful about getting involved in Donetsk and Luhansk, providing no official support at a time where the Ukrainian government was at its most divided and disorganized. If Russia actually wanted all of Ukraine that time was 2014, not today. There is no strategic benefit to occupying Kiev.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

Note who is missing. France, Germany, Hungary, Turkey.

 

[Übertroon]

Note who is missing. France, Germany, Hungary, Turkey.

View attachment 2978979

Reminder that by the time Taliban took over Kabul most of these same nations had not evacuated their personnel. Norwegian embassy personnel had to be saved by the Danish government who provided space for them in one of the planes they had readied the day the Taliban entered Kabul. The track record as of late has not been good or particularly accurate

 

[Techpriest]

You're forgetting that he doesn't need direct control over Ukraine for it to be a buffer state. He just needs it to remain in a state of "conflict" to not be eligible for NATO membership. That doesn't require occupying a territory.

Occupying Crimea didn't cause any military engagements though and was a strategic concern as Russia feared Ukraine might revoke the agreement for Russia's naval bases on the peninsula. The Russians were way more careful about getting involved in Donetsk and Luhansk, providing no official support at a time where the Ukrainian government was at its most divided and disorganized. If Russia actually wanted all of Ukraine that time was 2014, not today. There is no strategic benefit to occupying Kiev.

To Putin, any western aligning state on his borders is a cause for concern and especially if there’s even a hint of russian speakers. If he was satisfied with the status quo, he’d not demand assurances NATO never allows the Ukrainians to join ever. He’d not demand the rollback of NATO to pre 97 borders, effectively expelling all former Warsaw Pact states. He wouldn’t annex the Crimea instead of negotiating a new lease. Quit being retarded. He wants a puppet.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

To Putin, any western aligning state on his borders is a cause for concern and especially if there’s even a hint of russian speakers. If he was satisfied with the status quo, he’d not demand assurances NATO never allows the Ukrainians to join ever. He’d not demand the rollback of NATO to pre 97 borders, effectively expelling all former Warsaw Pact states. He wouldn’t annex the Crimea instead of negotiating a new lease. Quit being retarded. He wants a puppet.

You are distracted by what Putin is saying. Look at what Putin needs and what Putin is doing. Think about things in the context of the last 30 years and not just what you saw on CNN two days ago.

 

[Übertroon]

To Putin, any western aligning state on his borders is a cause for concern and especially if there’s even a hint of russian speakers. If he was satisfied with the status quo, he’d not demand assurances NATO never allows the Ukrainians to join ever. He’d not demand the rollback of NATO to pre 97 borders, effectively expelling all former Warsaw Pact states. He wouldn’t annex the Crimea instead of negotiating a new lease. Quit being retarded. He wants a puppet.

So why now and not 2014? Why didn't Putin declare the maidan revolt a coup and roll tanks into Kiev before the west realized who was on what side? Why announce a invasion beforehand and give Ukraine time to mobilize? How come the same intelligence services that could not predict war between Armenia and Azerbaijan should now be trusted when they claim that Vladimir Hitler is about to invade Ukraine at a inopportune time?

 

[Sexual Chocolate]

The time limit due to weather is really interesting and does add some truth to the reports made by supposed "US intelligence", but I'm still holding off on a full scale invasion due to the cons outweighing the pros for Russia at this point. The conference between Putin and Biden on Saturday morning might give more insight into what exactly does Russia get from Ukraine, but it will probably just boil down to a bunch of finger pointing and "they're just warmongering!" comments from both of them.

We need a betting pool on this.

Anyway, I don't think Russia is gonna invade anybody. There seems to be no upside for the regime (vague handwaving about USSR/Tsarist nostalgia isn't a reason) and plenty of downside. Their current tactic of moving men and weapons close to the border is something they can do forever, at little cost or risk, and might yet get the results they want. So they'll probably stick with that.

In the meantime they have Americans fleeing Ukraine (I hope Hunter got his money out), Brits fleeing Ukraine, and the entire EU giving Russia lots of attention. Putin looks like the Big Man to the folks back home. NATO is still talking big about how they won't officially rule out Ukraine joining, but something that isn't being mentioned is that enlargement requires a unanimous vote of all existing members.

After this experience, I don't think Germany, France, Spain and other west and central Euro countries are gonna be enthusiastic about signing up to defend the Ukrainian kleptocracy with their lives. That idea will be politely kicked into the long grass, like Turkey's ambition to join the EU.

Sexual Chocolate's Predictions:

* No war
* Some kind of face-saving political bullshit to let everybody involved declare victory
* Nord Stream 2 magically gets German approval and starts pumping gas to those BMW factories
* Ukies get soft blocked by NATO
* The next 5,000 pages of this thread are Slavs shitposting at each other

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

Remember how one of Biden's campign's promises was being tough on Russia and now he just said "Yeah you're free to invade Ukraine, we're not gonna do shit to impeed you directly." God you just know that China is watching and thinking invading Taiwan without US military intervention is now a most likely scenario.

 

[Techpriest]

You are distracted by what Putin is saying. Look at what Putin needs and what Putin is doing. Think about things in the context of the last 30 years and not just what you saw on CNN two days ago.

Look at what he’s done in the last twenty. Invaded two post soviet states, created defacto puppets in central asia, tried to project power like the old Soviet state, engaged in multiple assassinations of dissidents, secured his power as a permanent dictator and has consistently attempted to bully post Warsaw Pact states. I understand you’re payed five rubles a post but seriously c’mon.

 

[hooboy]

Remember how one of Biden's campign's promises was being tough on Russia and now he just said "Yeah you're free to invade Ukraine, we're not gonna do shit to impeed you directly." God you just know that China is watching and thinking invading Taiwan without US military intervention is now a most likely scenario.

that's fucking retarded lol and if you think any conflict is going to come out of this drink piss

 

[murdered meat bag]

Remember how one of Biden's campign's promises was being tough on Russia and now he just said "Yeah you're free to invade Ukraine, we're not gonna do shit to impeed you directly." God you just know that China is watching and thinking invading Taiwan without US military intervention is now a most likely scenario.

why should i care about either? sure taiwan makes computer chips and that would suck but those taiwanese can set up shop here and get one of those sweet visas.

 

[Übertroon]

So what some people want you to believe is that it was not the right time to invade Ukraine in 2014

but instead Ukraine in 2022 is way more tempting

 

[Candlelight Desolation]

You are distracted by what Putin is saying. Look at what Putin needs and what Putin is doing. Think about things in the context of the last 30 years and not just what you saw on CNN two days ago.

I kind of agree; flexing his war muscle is what Putin does, and he's been doing it for decades. However, at the same time, I also have to think of that joint statement Russia and China released where they said they feel as if they are entitled to Ukraine and Taiwan respectively and that the US is a weak state.

 

[дядя Боря]

So why now and not 2014? Why didn't Putin declare the maidan revolt a coup and roll tanks into Kiev before the west realized who was on what side? Why announce a invasion beforehand and give Ukraine time to mobilize? How come the same intelligence services that could not predict war between Armenia and Azerbaijan should now be trusted when they claim that Vladimir Hitler is about to invade Ukraine at a inopportune time?

They did try. There were groups in Odessa and Kharkiv and many more in smaller towns that did the same "separatist" shit, it never took hold. You need enough agents to stir shit up and mild support of locals to have some appearance going. It never panned out. Too little effort, too much local resistance.

 

[Borscht]

The US has basically been giving the Russians every single off ramp possible.

Kindly name at least one.

So far all the US has been giving Putin is a big fat schlong to suck on, because their diplomatic suggestions start and end with "remove troops NOW NOW NOW NOW" with absolutely nothing in between.

 

[Übertroon]

They did try. There were groups in Odessa and Kharkiv and many more in smaller towns that did the same "separatist" shit, it never took hold. You need enough agents to stir shit up and mild support of locals to have some appearance going. It never panned out. Too little effort, too much local resistance.

That's the usual Russian MO though, let locals do the fighting while they supply the arms. But now people are considering an actual military invasion likely, as if the moment to send in troops wasn't the time where half the country wasn't even sure who was the current president and who was pro or anti Kiev or Kremlin