Over the last two days, there has been a massive increase in activity in the Donbass region. I was really sceptical about anything genuine actually happening, but it seems that shit has already started to hit the fan.
To recap:
- yesterday (18th), fearing increased hostilities, the Donbass People's Republics started evacuating their citizens to Russia:
- the same evening, Ukrainian military intelligence claimed that Russians have put explosives in various vital locations around Donbass:
- at around the same time, a gas pipe exploded in Lugansk:
- also at the same time, renewed shelling started between Ukrainian and Donbass troops:
- the Lugansk and Donetsk governments have called for a general mobilization:
- due to the increased hostilities, casualties have been reported on both sides:
- the bordering Russian Oblast of Rostov has issued a state of emergency due to the refugee crisis:
- this morning (curiously reported by TASS as a "Thursday morning" ) the Donetsk water supply station was damaged by the Ukrainian shelling:
- also this morning, the speaker of the Russian Duma stated that Russia will move in to defend their citizens in the Donbass if their lives are in danger:
I feel like I'm taking crazy pills because yesterday evening, after hearing about the evacuations, I was thinking about what I would do if I wanted to take over eastern Ukraine and came up with a plan:
- I would cause an artificial refugee crisis by destroying vital parts of civilian infrastructure in false flag attacks to force the local inhabitants to be evacuated to Russia. I would blame the attacks on Ukrainian saboteurs.
- Simultaneously, I would encourage the Donbas militias to provoke the Ukrainian troops to intensify their shelling by firing on their positions with heavy artillery pieces.
- This increase in hostilities threatens the new "humanitarian crisis" in the region and as civilian casualties mount up, I would have the Donbass militias ask for aid from Russia to evacuate the civilians to Russia. This is the queue for the Russian military to move in.
- The Ukrainian military will attempt to stop the Russian military from crossing the border, causing casualties among the troops providing "humanitarian aid" to the Donbass refugees. This gives the Russian troops justification to silence the Ukranian guns by starting an offensive against the current Ukrainian positions.
- Once you have enough land to provide a "protective cordon" around the "humanitarian crisis zone", you can dig in and leave the rest to the politicians. Here you've occupied eastern Ukraine and had at least some form of justification to do it all the way through.
- If the Ukrainian government launches a counteroffensive, you can move further in "self-defence" to prevent any further "hostile acts" on your humanitarian mission. This can lead all the way to install a new government in Kyiv, if need be.
The thing is, last night and this morning, everything has been developing towards this specific scenario. Can anyone tell me something to convince me that a major war is not about to break out in a few days?
