Russian Invasion of Ukraine (2022): Thread 1 - Ukrainian Liars vs Russian Liars with Air and Artillery Superiority

[mantan]

Won't lie, chances of a missile strike have increased, but that is still unlikely, otherwise I'm still betting it's a nothingburger. Donbass was like this for the last 8 years with short periods of peace and longer periods of war-loving retards shelling each other for the glory of Russia/Ukraine. Evacuating Donbass citizens means you won't have to defend them in Donbass, so don't see how people see this as a pretext for invasion and not a way of avoiding it.

Talks about saving face in this thread are so ungodly retarded, politics doesn't work like that. Putin can go out in the streets and rape a child publically and he still will be liked by 70% of the population after a few weeks of mass media brainwashing. For Russian population literally any action will be portrayed as the best possible maneuver he could do in that situation.

UPD. Separatists just published Ukraine's plan [archive] of invasion. Somehow this is the most autistic plan I've seen out of all the ones posted in this thread.

Spoiler: Epilepsy Warning

The aim of the Ukrainian offensive is to "cleanse" the territory of the People's Republics of the Russian-speaking population, push them out into Russian territory and gain control over the entire territory of the People's Republics.

Up to FIVE days are allotted for the operation.

The enemy's plans will be shattered by the defenses of the Republics' defenders. In the event of Ukrainian aggression, enemy losses would exceed the scale of the failed operations of 2014-2015.

The real questions here are: "are separatists going to claim that they deterred Ukrainian attack if nothing happens?" and "would that mean that separatists are more western than the regular Ukranians?".

 

[Borscht]

A wild mobile recruitment center for contract military service suddenly appeared in Moscow Kazansky railroad terminal! It's not very effective!

 

[Techpriest]

Chinese foreign minister basically just said China really doesn’t want Putin to start shit.

 

[дядя Боря]

Donetsk Peoples republic has issued a "general mobilization"
https://twitter.com/newsistaan/status/1494925738209730561
View attachment 2995959

All men 18-55 are going to be drafted if the translations are right.
Women, Children and elderly ordered to evacuate to Russia.

One comment made elsewhere, that's def sus, is how fast this evacuation was organized, how fast Vlad is paying out $100 and how fast there are places in Rostov opened up where these people going to. You can't really do it unless there was significant prep. To compare with any known natural disaster/acts of terrorism, shit usually takes days before something could even be called "organized" and on much smaller scale. Here they are trying to evac 700'000 people and have already commandeered buses etc.

Can't imagine 50+ year old gopnik men would be anything but a liability. Is there a shortage of able bodied men or something?

They aren't going into bayonet attack. A lot of local gopnicks were recruited to hang around check points, deliver shit, run errands and dig trenches. Combine that with high unemployment due to closing of mines and factories looted, you can still find sometimes sober bodies. Also, unlike burgers in their 50s, everyone there works 'til drops, country folk is pretty hardy and those fuckers in their 50s can easily physically trounce overweight burgers in their 20s, despite being drunk most of the time.


19th, TASS is showing setting up refugee camps. I can see it as a legit reason for something.

https://twitter.com/tass_agency/status/1494953977703772161?s=20&t=bpbKTh-EOB69wAoPgzMokw

 

[Dave_Ph]

What's all the drama
Brandon said it's okay if they just put the tip in

 

[Kaede Did Nothing Wrong]

Was this clip posted yet?
View attachment 2951612
>>dude trust us
>AP Reporter: Crisis actors? This is like Alex Jones territory stuff


Where I found it
Reporter asking questions

very late but I just saw this exchange. I'm shocked how few people remember the 1999 apartment bombings that preceded the 2nd chenchen war. it's the formative event of Putin's presidency and strong evidence that these were perpetrated by russia itself, including one thwarted bomb confirmed to be FSB agents using russian military explosives.
"alex jones territory" journos are so fucking stupid.

 

[murdered meat bag]

very late but I just saw this exchange. I'm shocked how few people remember the 1999 apartment bombings that preceded the 2nd chenchen war. it's the formative event of Putin's presidency and strong evidence that these were perpetrated by russia itself, including one thwarted bomb confirmed to be FSB agents using russian military explosives.
"alex jones territory" journos are so fucking stupid.

otoh, the feds made a big deal about the kidnpaping of gov whitmer only to have it leaked that their informants and agents did most of the heavy work. or that they had expert evidence that iraq had wmds. the last thing anyone wants is another 20+ year war for a shithole country.


If you say "the other guy will do a false flag" it gives you room to do one of your own.

 

[whatever I feel like]

very late but I just saw this exchange. I'm shocked how few people remember the 1999 apartment bombings that preceded the 2nd chenchen war. it's the formative event of Putin's presidency and strong evidence that these were perpetrated by russia itself, including one thwarted bomb confirmed to be FSB agents using russian military explosives.
"alex jones territory" journos are so fucking stupid.

My favorite part was the MP listing off bombings who forgot to leave out the ones that hadn't happened yet.

 

[Henry V]

 

[Henry V]

Chinese foreign minister basically just said China really doesn’t want Putin to start shit.

China had been having closed door meetings with Putin leading up to the Olympics. If China doesn't want Russia to invade I feel confident that they could have convinced him not to. Also, China is arguing for the Minsk Agreement which is something Russia itself wants more than Ukraine and NATO.

 

[Kaede Did Nothing Wrong]

otoh, the feds made a big deal about the kidnpaping of gov whitmer only to have it leaked that their informants and agents did most of the heavy work. or that they had expert evidence that iraq had wmds. the last thing anyone wants is another 20+ year war for a shithole country.


If you say "the other guy will do a false flag" it gives you room to do one of your own.

my point wasn't that the FBI/CIA don't or won't pull their own stunt soon. my point was that western media could have responded that putin has pulled false flags before and that "russia's 9/11" was in fact a false flag perpetrated by the state security service. maybe there's a gentleman's agreement not to go there.

 

[дядя Боря]

Saw this from few sources, nytimes isn't my go to source, but just spells out same shit in English:

Put Sanctions on Russia Now, Ukraine’s Leader Urges West

“What are you waiting for?” President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine asked Western leaders in Munich, as Russian-backed rebels urged people to evacuate and shelling escalated in eastern Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

So Zelensky is in Munich right now, trying to shore up more support. Much is said, but something new is he is officially bringing up the Budapest memorandum and the worthless assurances in exchange for all the nuclear arsenal ... and some hint that Ukraine may pursue a path to re-nuclearization. That's a big deal, imho. Everything big has humble beginnings and this may be a start for this thought to be further developed as a lever.

China had been having closed door meetings with Putin leading up to the Olympics. If China doesn't want Russia to invade I feel confident that they could have convinced him not to. Also, China is arguing for the Minsk Agreement which is something Russia itself wants more than Ukraine and NATO.

from article above:

Even the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, in a striking comment of some distancing from Russia, said that the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of every country should be safeguarded. “Ukraine is no exception,” he said in a virtual appearance at the Munich conference.

China may want to distance itself from Vlad, because if the shit goes down, it's not going to be just Russia but anyone who helped or supported. China is already on UK shit list together with Norks and Russia as the new axis of evil, as UK foreign minister said in her speech in Australia.

China doesn't need that. They'll get gas and land from Russia no matter what. I'd expect they would condemn further invasion if it takes place.

 

[GreeneCoDeputy]

Yes it is. If the number of deployed Battalions is true upwards of 74% of Russian military forces are deployed to Ukrainian borders. NATO estimates 190,000 troops, some coming as far as Vladivostok.
There are 2 Russian heavy cruisers with escort destroyers in the Mediterranean. Russia also has 12 Troop landing ships in the black sea, ostensibly to land troops on the southern Ukrainian coast. a Spy ship has been sailing just outside Ukrainian waters too.
Here are some maps that have been made based on public sat imagery and local social media and other sources.

Operationally, I think the 2003 invasion of Iraq has some good correlation with the present build up and relative levels of readiness.
Sources:
Wikipedia
Invasion of Iraq 2003 Order of Battle

Coalition​

Note: I am aware this does not include Air Force or Navy assets that took part but the overall count should approximately reflect the AF and Navy commitment.

United States​

Spoiler: Ground forces order of battle

Headquarters	Element	Type	Strength
1st Marine Div
	1st Marine Rgt	Regimental Combat Team
	5th Marine Rgt	Regimental Combat Team
	7th Marine Rgt	Regimental Combat Team
	11th Marine Rgt	Regimental Combat Team
	1st Recon Bn	Recon/Light Infantry
2nd Marine Expeditionary Brigade
	2nd Marine Rgt	Regimental Combat Team
	15th MEU	MEU
	24th MEU	MEU
3rd Infantry Div
	1st Bde	Brigade Combat Team (Mech Inf + Armor + Artillery)
	2nd Bde	Brigade Combat Team
	3rd Bde	Brigade Combat Team
101st Airborne Div (AASLT)
	2nd Bde	Bde Combat Team
	3rd Bde	Bde Combat Team
82nd Airborne Div	2nd Bde	Bde Combat Team
	1st Bde, 101st Airborne	Bde Combat Team
V Corps (HQ)
	130th Eng Bde	Combat Engineers
	17th Field Artillery Bde	Artillery Bde
	41st FA Bde	Artillery Bde
	214th FA Bde	Artillery
	18th MP Bde	Military Police
	205th MI Bde	Military Intelligence
	22nd Signal Bde	Communications
CJSOTF-North
	10th Special Forces Group	Army Special Forces
	173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team	BCT (Parachute Infantry + Armor + Artillery)
	26th MEU	Marine MEU
CJSOTF-West
	5th Special Forces Group	Army Special Forces

Total: 192,000

United Kingdom​

Spoiler: Ground forces order of battle

1st Armoured Division
	7th Armoured Bde	Armor + Mech Infantry
	16th Air Assault Bde	Parachute Infantry
	3 Commande Bde	Light Infantry

Total: 46,000

Australia​

2000 troops (Special operations task force, 14 F/A-18 aircraft and crew)

 

[mantan]

That's a big deal, imho. Everything big has humble beginnings and this may be a start for this thought to be further developed as a lever.

This is truly a big deal, but hopefully no one's crazy enough to let an unstable country in the middle of Europe have its own nukes. Ukranian leadership changes every half a decade. Sure you can bet short-term on this dissuading Russia, but long term no one wants any rogue actors like Azov or separatists to be within arms reach of a nuclear supply, Chernobyl was quite enough radiation for everyone.

 

[GreeneCoDeputy]

Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine daily reports from the last few days:

You can see the escalation in hard numbers via the summaries.

19 February 2022 (latest) (link | archive)​

Summary​

• In Donetsk region, the SMM recorded 591 ceasefire violations, including 553 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 222 ceasefire violations in the region.
• In Luhansk region, the Mission recorded 975 ceasefire violations, including 860 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 648 ceasefire violations in the region.
• The SMM corroborated reports of a civilian casualty in government-controlled Marinka, Donetsk region.
• The Mission followed up on reports of damage to a school in government-controlled Vrubivka in Luhansk region.
• The SMM continued monitoring the disengagement areas near Stanytsia Luhanska, Zolote and Petrivske. It recorded ceasefire violations (including explosions) close to the disengagement areas near Stanytsia Luhanska and Zolote.
• The Mission monitored the operation of critical civilian infrastructure.
• The SMM continued to follow up on the situation of civilians, including at four entry-exit checkpoints and three corresponding checkpoints of the armed formations in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
• The Mission monitored a gathering in Kyiv.
• The SMM’s freedom of movement continued to be restricted, including at two checkpoints of armed formations in Donetsk region.*

18 February 2022 (link | archive)​

Summary​

• In Donetsk region, the SMM recorded 222 ceasefire violations, including 135 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 189 ceasefire violations in the region.
• In Luhansk region, the Mission recorded 648 ceasefire violations, including 519 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 402 ceasefire violations in the region.
• The SMM followed up on reports of damage to a kindergarten in government-controlled Stanytsia Luhanska, Luhansk region.
• The Mission continued monitoring the disengagement areas near Stanytsia Luhanska, Zolote and Petrivske. It recorded 212 ceasefire violations (including 177 explosions) close to the disengagement areas near Stanytsia Luhanska and 32 explosions close to the disengagement area near Zolote.
• The SMM monitored the operation of critical civilian infrastructure.
• The Mission continued to follow up on the situation of civilians, including at five entry-exit checkpoints and four corresponding checkpoints of the armed formations in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
• The SMM monitored the security situation in south Kherson region.
• The Mission’s freedom of movement continued to be restricted, including at two checkpoints of armed formations in non-government-controlled areas of Donetsk region. *

17 February 2022 (link | archive)​

Summary​

• In Donetsk region, the SMM recorded 189 ceasefire violations, including 128 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 24 ceasefire violations in the region.
• In Luhansk region, the Mission recorded 402 ceasefire violations, including 188 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 129 ceasefire violations in the region.
• A member of the armed formations threatened an SMM patrol at a training area near non-government-controlled Shymshynivka, Luhansk region.
• The SMM continued monitoring the disengagement areas near Stanytsia Luhanska, Zolote and Petrivske. It recorded ceasefire violations inside the areas near Stanytsia Luhanska and Zolote.
• The Mission monitored the operation of critical civilian infrastructure.
• The SMM continued to follow up on the situation of civilians, including at four entry-exit checkpoints and the corresponding checkpoints of the armed formations in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
• The Mission visited a border crossing point in Kharkiv region, where it saw no change in the security situation.
• The SMM observed gatherings in Kyiv and Dnipro.
• The Mission’s freedom of movement continued to be restricted, including at a heavy weapons holding area in a government-controlled area of Luhansk region, at a permanent storage site and a heavy weapons holding area in non-government-controlled areas of Donetsk region, and at a training area in a non-government-controlled area of Luhansk region. Its unmanned aerial vehicles again encountered instances of GPS signal interference, assessed as caused by probable jamming.*

 

[Only A Retard Sometimes]

Now the Germans are telling their people to flee. they've been the most friendly to the Russians out of the NATO nations so far.

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1495039300651659268

Russians now have a visual IFF system on their vehicles to avoid friendly fire.

 

[Fcret]

This is truly a big deal, but hopefully no one's crazy enough to let an unstable country in the middle of Europe have its own nukes.

Nigger if we're not willing to militarize enough to defend Ukraine then we're not willing to militarize enough to go into Ukraine and take their nukes away.

 

[Caustic Gelatin]

All right who's ready to go to war for raytheon stocks, DNC money laundering operations, DEFENDING FREEDOM IN EASTERN EUROPE?

 

[дядя Боря]

This is truly a big deal, but hopefully no one's crazy enough to let an unstable country in the middle of Europe have its own nukes. Ukranian leadership changes every half a decade. Sure you can bet short-term on this dissuading Russia, but long term no one wants any rogue actors like Azov or separatists to be within arms reach of a nuclear supply, Chernobyl was quite enough radiation for everyone.

Exactly, ain't no one got time for that.

Ukraine still has Yuzhmash, that develops rocket and missile tech, working with some EU space agencies. I believe French Ariana rockets used their tech. There were some allegations that Nork missiles had Ukrainian origin, which may or not be true since most rocket dev work was done in Ukraine in Soviet times. Nuclear shit, they still have skillz, not sure how close to get to an actual working device, but mere threat of is probably sufficient by itself.

Unlike Russia or Belarus, Ukraine has regular elections of puppet, chocolate king and a real comedian, so at least elections have been regular enough that if this catches popular support, it may be a good platform to run on, and it would scare the shit out of EUrocucks.

Now the Germans are telling their people to flee. they've been the most friendly to the Russians out of the NATO nations so far.

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1495039300651659268

I think that French ambassador advised French citizens to up their supply of food and warm clothing. White flags and vaseline would be my suggestion.

 

[Only A Retard Sometimes]

tracers above Donetsk

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1495112295277641733?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw