Alright, since there's a lot of buzz around the American People's Convoy, I'm going to fully explain my thoughts on it.
As of now, the American People's Convoy is supposed to roll starting tomorrow, and from the footage I have gathered, the American convoy is still in it's infancy, but given the footage I have seen so far, the convoy will probably grow to the size of Canada's convoy (at it's peak) in around a week and a half. I also base this growth off of the assumption that American truckers are tired of mandates and do not want them reinstated at any point during this year and beyond.
Now, my assumption that the American convoy is going to grow does not imply it will completely succeed. I only think it'll happen because American truckers hate mandates and were inspired by their Canadian counterparts, who had to undergo mandates stricter than theirs'.
So, what do I think will put a wrench in the gears of this convoy, then? Well, the first and most obvious ones are Federal infiltrators, who will most likely act to inform the FBI of supply locations and major camps, which will lead to raids of those places and arrests of whoever's there.
The second includes Antifa grunts, who will act as informants for the FBI, conduct counter-protests that will block off trucker routes to desired locations, and basically mess with the vehicles of the protestors until they are either forced to drive away or use physical violence. For me, Antifa is the American convoy's biggest problem, and it's something the Canadians didn't have to deal with (thank fucking god). If Antifa thugs can get American protestors into dogfights, those will be recorded by some alphabet journalist, which can then be used by government as justification to bring in armed forces. If truckers get scared and drive away, that buys Antifa and the armed forces time to further blockade the routes to major US cities.
Antifa and the FBI are obstacles in the truckers' way, since they have the element of anticipation on their side given the events in Canada. However, if the truckers are smart enough to be secretive about their plans, they can execute them without Antifa or the FBI interfering, since they will not notice their exact locations. They can do this by speaking in lingo that can't be immediately understood, deleting their messages an hour after they are sent, primarily using emails instead of chatrooms, or (in an extreme scenario) just straight up using pen and paper, among many other things. For me, the success of the protest hinges on the secrecy of their communication. If communication spaces are easily infiltrated and messages are leaked, the truckers will have to deal with armed forces, and from there, it can get dirty.
So, in summary, what do I think the timeline is going to look like?
Well:
1. American People's Convoy grows to the size of the Canadian convoy at it's peak around a week after Feb 23, so that's 1000 trucks more or less
2. First division of American Convoy goes to DC, but is met with heavy resistance on the way there, so they divert their attention towards another city.
3. Other divisions try going to other major cities, however, communication isn't entirely secret, and so, some routes are blocked by Antifa and police.
4.1. Groups of truckers who secretly communicate will manage to reach their respective cities. They will then gain enough attention on social media to the extent where other groups of truckers start to form and drive to other cities. Buzz from social media convinces some states and cities to lift their mandates.
4.2. Groups of truckers who are blocked by Antifa and police end up fighting them. A killing or two is committed by a trucker, and from there, the presence of armed forces increases immediately.
5. The increased presence of armed forces spreads to the truckers who have reached their cities, and from there, they are driven out.
6. Truckers in all cities lose morale over time, and eventually, they go home. States and cities that have lifted their mandates in 4.1 may reinstate them depending on whether or not a new "variant" comes out.
tl;dr I think the American People's Convoy will get mandates lifted, but only for a short period. However, I think the most important thing to come out of the protest is the improvement of the average American's knowledge on how far the government is willing to push back against public dissent of this magnitude. From there, Americans will certainly become more distrustful of their gov't, and be more vocal about whatever dissent they have kept in for the past years.
