Ira the Weatherman
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Aug 25, 2019
I'm updating a summary made before midday. For context, it's about 17:17 in Ukraine right now.
It seems Russians have retaken Gostomel airfield to the northwest of the city at least two hours ago, but there hasn't been much fighting since. I've been listening to the Kiev livestream for a good two hours now and it's been dead silent (lmao nevermind, siren just went off for a bit), the Russians are probably consolidating the gains they've made and bringing more materiel up.
This is where shit will go down if the Russians decide to continue to advance.
''Two shells hit the building of the regional SBU office in Chernihiv. The building is currently on fire. The information was confirmed by the regional department of the State Emergency Service.''
This ties in with footage of an alleged destroyed Ukranian convey in Oleshky, directly south across the bridge from Kherson:
Reminder that it took the Taliban nearly four weeks from the start of their summer offensive to take Kabul and most of the country, from positions which encircled the government's holdings, and that was with quite literally almost zero resistance. The same applies to the Invasion of Iraq in 2003. The people in this thread saying the conquest of Ukraine would be a matter of hours are idiots. Even in the best case, mass capitulations scenario it would take days to secure major objectives at the least.
Information from this front is still vague. We have seen small scale firefights in the Obolon suburb, accompanied by Ukranian claims/paranoia surrounding SF/saboteurs.
It seems Russians have retaken Gostomel airfield to the northwest of the city at least two hours ago, but there hasn't been much fighting since. I've been listening to the Kiev livestream for a good two hours now and it's been dead silent (lmao nevermind, siren just went off for a bit), the Russians are probably consolidating the gains they've made and bringing more materiel up.
This is where shit will go down if the Russians decide to continue to advance.
Chernigov has been effectively surrounded and besieged.
''Two shells hit the building of the regional SBU office in Chernihiv. The building is currently on fire. The information was confirmed by the regional department of the State Emergency Service.''
Sumy still seems to be in Ukranian hands and it looks the Russians have passed it by to the west.
This doesn't seem to be the case. From what we can tell, Russian probing attacks to the south of the bridge were initially repulsed and they've moved up arty to the southern bank of the Dniepr. They've apparantly been shelling Antonivka, which lies to the east of the city:
This ties in with footage of an alleged destroyed Ukranian convey in Oleshky, directly south across the bridge from Kherson:
Putin's goal is either 1. to occupy Ukraine and regime change it or 2. he's trying to cow the Ukranians to the negotiating table with a display of power. In either scenario, going ham on civilians is counterproductive. The few examples of civilians getting hit by ordnance seem to be genuine cases of collateral damage, and it's clear Russian forces have been ordered not to harass the civvies.
This is silly. The Ukrainian military is obviously militarily inferior to Russia in every way but it doesn't mean it's something that the Russians themselves don't take seriously, because that's how you do struggle against a nominally inferior enemy.
Reminder that it took the Taliban nearly four weeks from the start of their summer offensive to take Kabul and most of the country, from positions which encircled the government's holdings, and that was with quite literally almost zero resistance. The same applies to the Invasion of Iraq in 2003. The people in this thread saying the conquest of Ukraine would be a matter of hours are idiots. Even in the best case, mass capitulations scenario it would take days to secure major objectives at the least.
To be honest, so do the opposing offensives. The Russians have been advancing piecemeal, keeping the bulk of their forces in reserve and carefully picking off designated targets from a distance. They've stalled at Kherson, Mariupol, Chernigov and Kharkov, the first major urban areas they've reached and they're understandably cautious about just running in. The Chernobyl/Gostomel front is where they've been the most brazen, with their VDV assault, but that makes sense given that it's the quickest road towards Kiev. Now that they're maybe 20 km away from the capital, it looks like they're settling down.
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