War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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This could indeed be the dangerous and @LORD IMPERATOR probably underestimates the Chinese economy
If you paid any attention to the Chinese economy in the last few months, you'd know the kind of shit they're in.
Protip: That shit with Evergrande is just the tip of the iceberg. Their entire economy's growth is based on ghost cities that are poorly-constructed and will never see proper use. And their economy has begun to sink, too.
 
We're cooking with gutter oil now.

India is already setting up an alternative to SWIFT to continue business with Russia. Expect China and others to do the same.

We essentially forced Russia and China together, and it looks like India and several OPEC nations are coming along.

We just forced an alliance between the people who make and power everything against us. Isn't that smart?
Iran was disconnected from SWIFT due to US pressure and then later rejoined. So Russia might. But I'd be flabbergasted if we don't see some sort of competitor within the next 12-24 months. Here's a thing with SWIFT: the protocols and messaging systems et al. are all open. (They're XML for the programmers amongst us). Whilst I only know what I've read online about SWIFT, it seems to me that they're revoking Russian banks access to the SWIFT network but if Russia and others wanted to, they could build a new network using the same protocols.

The NSA monitor SWIFT transactions. There are only three places that the transactions go through, apparently - Switzerland, Brussels and the USA. It's not "peer to peer" as such so if India, Russia and China build their own SWIFT with blackjack, and hookers, they're going to get a lot more privacy out of it than the old system.

Reading up on this, Russia already has a SWIFT competitor called SPFS and has since 2014. That's long enough to work out initial kinks. It only operates within Russia but they've been touting it to other countries. According to Wikipedia (I know, I know) banks in Germany, Switzerland and some other countries are already using it. There's also an Indian one called SFMS (I know nothing about it).

I'm deeply curious to know if this would have any implications for the US dollars position as global reserve currency. It feels like it would. If America loses that then I can't guess what might happen - nothing good for Americans, I would imagine.
 
Iran was disconnected from SWIFT due to US pressure and then later rejoined. So Russia might. But I'd be flabbergasted if we don't see some sort of competitor within the next 12-24 months. Here's a thing with SWIFT: the protocols and messaging systems et al. are all open. (They're XML for the programmers amongst us). Whilst I only know what I've read online about SWIFT, it seems to me that they're revoking Russian banks access to the SWIFT network but if Russia and others wanted to, they could build a new network using the same protocols.

The NSA monitor SWIFT transactions. There are only three places that the transactions go through, apparently - Switzerland, Brussels and the USA. It's not "peer to peer" as such so if India, Russia and China build their own SWIFT with blackjack, and hookers, they're going to get a lot more privacy out of it than the old system.

Reading up on this, Russia already has a SWIFT competitor called SPFS and has since 2014. That's long enough to work out initial kinks. It only operates within Russia but they've been touting it to other countries. According to Wikipedia (I know, I know) banks in Germany, Switzerland and some other countries are already using it. There's also an Indian one called SFMS (I know nothing about it).

I'm deeply curious to know if this would have any implications for the US dollars position as global reserve currency. It feels like it would. If America loses that then I can't guess what might happen - nothing good for Americans, I would imagine.
So kicking them out of SWIFT is the equivalent of stealing a man's sandals. He already has another pair.
 
That sadly could be the case in a post-2014 KnifeCrimeland, statistically almost there at least.
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Does the Africa comparison really hold up, though? France had a massive influx of white Algerians coming through in the leadup to, and after, Algerian independence. They could foresee what would happen.

Similar case with British Empire's African territories and NIBMAR, except they had a lot more options of where to head off to. Most people, if they were able to, got out asap.
 
So kicking them out of SWIFT is the equivalent of stealing a man's sandals. He already has another pair.
Crappy sandals, at least.

But that's not the big issue. The big issue is not the technology but who uses it. Russia has its system but only a limited number of other parties use it. And the value of SWIFT is in the number of institutions that use it. Russia still has to get others participating. Apparently success has been mixed so far, but this could be a boost to that.
 
Crappy sandals, at least.

But that's not the big issue. The big issue is not the technology but who uses it. Russia has its system but only a limited number of other parties use it. And the value of SWIFT is in the number of institutions that use it. Russia still has to get others participating. Apparently success has been mixed so far, but this could be a boost to that.
This could be a boost, yes. So them being removed from SWIFT is just a symbolic gesture at best, not enough to have any real effect.
 
This could be a boost, yes. So them being removed from SWIFT is just a symbolic gesture at best, not enough to have any real effect.
I think it's a pretty big deal, actually. For the immediate future, a lot of financial dealings with Russia are about to become much harder. And if it wasn't a big deal you wouldn't have had Germany trying to stop it happening. I'm not even sure if you'll be able to use Mastercard/Visa for payments for things in Russia with them off SWIFT. Anybody know?
 
Crappy sandals, at least.

But that's not the big issue. The big issue is not the technology but who uses it. Russia has its system but only a limited number of other parties use it. And the value of SWIFT is in the number of institutions that use it. Russia still has to get others participating. Apparently success has been mixed so far, but this could be a boost to that.
If they're kicked out of SWIFT wholesale Europe will need to trade with them through some other system since nothing I've seen suggests they're going to stop buying gas, aluminum etc from RU.


I think the hints at targeted swift restrictions are probably meaning that they'll carve out exceptions for all the stuff Europe wants to buy.
 

US, EU, UK and Canada announce new restrictions against Russia​

The measures include blocking currently sanctioned banks from SWIFT, as well as freezing assets
The leaders of the European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States issued a statement on Saturday, announcing the latest round of restrictive measures targeting Russia’s economy in response to Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine.

In particular, they concern “selected Russian banks,” which will be “removed from the SWIFT messaging system.” Russian Central Bank, meanwhile, will be prevented “from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact” of the sanctions.

The leaders said they will also “limit the sale of citizenship — so called golden passports — that let wealthy Russians connected to the Russian government become citizens of our countries and gain access to our financial systems.”

Finally, the countries announced plans to launch “a transatlantic task force” that will identify and freeze the assets of sanctioned entities within their jurisdiction.

“As a part of this effort we are committed to employing sanctions and other financial and enforcement measures on additional Russian officials and elites close to the Russian government, as well as their families, and their enablers to identify and freeze the assets they hold in our jurisdictions,” the statement read.

On top of that, the leaders vowed to “step up” their coordination against “disinformation and other forms of hybrid warfare.”

Earlier on Saturday, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council and former president Dmitry Medvedev said that sanctions unveiled against the country’s leadership could “excellent reason for a final review” of Russia’s relations with the nations that have imposed them. He added that it could include “interruption of the dialogue on strategic stability” and even potential denunciation of agreements, such as the New START treaty, which aimed at nuclear arms reduction.

Russia launched its ‘special military operation’ with the stated aim to “demilitarize” Ukraine on February 24. The majority of Western nations condemned the “unprovoked” and “unjustified” attack.

 
This is why I hate war in the 21th century. We came from knights to this:
Ukrainian writes the daughter of a Russian soldier lol complete subhuman
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And shit like this just means the river of bad blood between the Ukraine and Russia gets wider and deeper. Also means the bad blood between Russia and the rest of the world increases.

Seriously, Putin needs to declare victory and walk away. NATO/EU already sending more weaponry/supplies. US reinforcing NATO, likely also going to see UK/other Western European reinforcements. Bet Japan has also upped their air and air defense's posture. Russia's going to be out of SWIFT. May not be long until non-Russian purchasers stop buying Russian oil/minerals/etc.

It is amazing to see how far and fast Putin has gone off the deep end. He seemed pretty stable. Guess Vlad can't stand seeing his troops not just waltzing into the Ukraine. Apparently haven't even taken Kyiv. And would suggest he hasn't that much in the way of combat-ready reinforcments to send. As previously stated, doctrine has been to use divisions continually for 3-4 days, then be relieved and pull back. Putin may only have enough reinforcements immediately available to do one rotation. Then he would have to replace worn-out units with less worn-out units. Not a winning equation, in Uncle Joe's book. Very much question of Putin has any combat-ready divisions of reservists. Would take weeks/months to get reservists ready for combat.

The picture: If Russia is struggling this hard to defeat a country with a mere fraction of Russian military might, he'd get his ass kicked fighting NATO in a conventional war. All he really has are the nukes. Hope some folks in Russia are paying attention to what's going on and what's likely to happen, if you know what I mean.
 
If they're kicked out of SWIFT wholesale Europe will need to trade with them through some other system since nothing I've seen suggests they're going to stop buying gas, aluminum etc from RU.


I think the hints at targeted swift restrictions are probably meaning that they'll carve out exceptions for all the stuff Europe wants to buy.
If that's the case, wouldn't the Russians decide to close shop completely and sell exclusively to China, India, and all their allies instead?
 
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