Quick summary. This is the fourth day of the Russian operation.
Western media reports significantly underestimate Russian penetration and the speed of its advance, preferring to focus on the "Ukrainian resistance" which is actually proving unable to halt the strategic success of the Russian advance.
The main facts of the day:
- Russian troops are firmly established in the northern suburbs of Kiev
- The southern Ukrainian front is collapsing, the Russian army should soon control the entire Ukrainian sea front.
- The Russian army broke through to the east from Sumy towards Kiev to link up with the Russian offensive axis coming from the north and already present on the outskirts of Kiev.
- It appears that the Ukrainian units made the mistake of trying to hold the major cities (Chernihiv / Sumy / Kharkov / Kherson), leaving the Russian armoured units to continue their advance towards their first strategic objectives: Kiev - Odessa - Mariupol.
According to the information available, Russia has only committed half of its available troops to the offensive at this stage.
Northern axis (Kiev - Cherkihiv)
Street fighting in Kiev is concentrated in the northern suburbs of the capital, as here in Bucha.
In the south of the capital, Russian actions are still targeting Vasylkiv airport.
Much further south of the capital, in Vinitsa, in central Ukraine, forward Russian units, potentially paratroopers, are already conducting offensive operations.
Eastern axis (Sumy - Kharkov)
Significantly on the fourth day, the offensive axis from Sumy / Kharkov in the east made a lightning breakthrough towards the Dnieper and Kiev, threatening to encircle all Zelensky's units to the north in a gigantic pincer.
The 47th Guards Tank Regiment of the 1st Guards Tank Army was in charge of this manoeuvre.
Kharkov seems to be a secondary scene where the Russian army is trying to fix as many Ukrainian units as possible in order to destroy them gradually.
However, it seems that the Russian army is now entering massively in the city, which has a population of 1.5 million.
Southern axis (Kherson / Odessa - Mariupol)
The offensive is divided into two movements:
- The first one, towards Odessa, in the west, to lock the whole Ukrainian sea front and cut Kiev off from any US support by sea
- The second, towards Mariupol and the Donbass, to join the republics of Loukansk and Donetsk and lock the Sea of Azov
On the fourth day, the southern Ukrainian front has almost collapsed.
The Russian army has already reached the Dnieper, cutting off Kiev's river traffic with the Black Sea.
It is halfway to Odessa and rapidly approaching Mariupol.
Movement towards Odessa
The Russian army is completing the encirclement of Kherson, while continuing to advance towards Odessa. It is currently trying to break through at Mykolaiev.
Movement towards Mariupol / Donbass
Russian troops have reached Chernihivka.
The port of Berdiansk has already been overtaken by the Russian armoured vanguard, which is moving towards Mariupol.
At the current rate, the Russian army will have conquered the entire southern coast of Ukraine in just over a week, leaving Kiev temporarily with only a land corridor with Poland for any material support.
