War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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To all the people saying, "what happened? Putin used to be so smart and calculating!"

He's always been this dumb, what you're feeling is just the illusion shattering.
I would compare Putin to a Vegas gambler who did well in his first twenty rounds of betting, then he bet everything in one big push, where it started to go bad, and he starts to panic.
 

Russian vodka pulled from shelves in US, Canada bars, liquor stores: ‘Every small thing makes a difference’​


MUH RUSSIAN STANDARD. Alright, now I care.
 
The fact that the Russians went from "this is just peacekeeping" to "FUCK YOU, WE HAVE NUKES" in a matter of days shows that they're far from going optimally. Couple that with military riots and Russia's internal problems (an economy smaller than that of Texas being given a death blow through sanctions) and you can bet your ass the Russian bear just walked into a bear trap.
Russia's nuclear capability would still exist, doesn't matter if he used it to threaten or not. It's probably a scare tactic. Russia was willing to have peace talks at least twice. They're really trying too hard to be civilized... just storm them like with any other enemy you've had before.
 
Russia's nuclear capability would still exist, doesn't matter if he used it to threaten or not. It's probably a scare tactic. Russia was willing to have peace talks at least twice. They're really trying too hard to be civilized... just storm them like with any other enemy you've had before.
And winners don't need to rely on such drastic scare tactics. The Americans didn't need to use the threat of nukes during Iraq or Afghanistan. Even when they were getting harried by guerillas and Taliban. Meanwhile, Vladdy gets a few days of bogged-down combat, and he's already threatening to launch the nukes. That's not the winning side. He's obviously gotten far behind his military timetable, and he's running out of time and money. Which, coupled with the sanctions, is a really bad place to be, economically.
 
And winners don't need to rely on such drastic scare tactics. The Americans didn't need to use the threat of nukes during Iraq or Afghanistan. Even when they were getting harried by guerillas and Taliban. Meanwhile, Vladdy gets a few days of bogged-down combat, and he's already threatening to launch the nukes. That's not the winning side. He's obviously gotten far behind his military timetable, and he's running out of time and money. Which, coupled with the sanctions, is a really bad place to be, economically.
I think he assumed the Ukrainians would cave instantly without much fighting. The problem is they’re defending their homes so they’re fighting a lot harder now than in the contested regions which have more Russian support. I doubt Ukraine can pull it off but I think they bloodied the Russians more than they anticipated. I agree with your assessment that his threats imply it’s not going according to plan.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin dismissed much of his intelligence and made unrealistic timetables and assumptions.
 
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BREAKING: Jen Psaki just said that we need to reduce our reliance on foreign oil, but doesn’t want to increase American gas and oil production

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I'm amazed at how much they refuse to gradually ween us off of oil in favor of switching to EVs now now NOW NOW NOOWW!

The average American can't afford to suddenly buy an electric car in the middle of an ongoing economic disaster, nor do we have the infrastructure to support charging millions of them in the blink of an eye. Indeed, what exactly is their plan for the millions of gasoline cars that they want gone, bury them in a landfill and forget they exist?

This green energy push is going to fuck us so long as the powers that be think "nucwear is scawy...".

Sorry to get off topic, I'm happy to see the Ukrainians continue to hold Russia off. I underestimated their tenacity.
 
Meanwhile, Vladdy gets a few days of bogged-down combat, and he's already threatening to launch the nukes.
This is what I don't get. I've given the Ruskies a benefit of a doubt at the beginning, but did they honestly expect a OIF steamroll? Is Putin making these grand military decisions like bunkered up Hitler, or are his generals and advisors literally this incompetent and outright dumb?
 
If you look only at the borders and Russia's propaganda about their military might, you might be surprised at the fact that Ukraine hasn't lost a single city yet. But after looking at their yearly GDP and their economic/social problems, this shouldn't be all that surprising. They're a pretend-superpower that makes less money than Texas or New York; meaning all that large landmass they're holding is more of an economic burden than a blessing, since they have to hold all that space with a military budget that's smaller than the yearly income of a crime-ridden blue state.

Wars burn through money like napalm, and Russia doesn't have as big a war chest as America does. And America was forced to retreat from Afghanistan. The same went for the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union was far more powerful and economically viable than modern-day Russia. The Soviets could compete with America back when America was a genuine superpower. Modern-day Russia can't even make more money per year than New York or Texas.

You know you fucked up as a leader when your country was better off under COMMUNISM of all fucking ideologies
 
I think he assumed the Ukrainians would cave instantly without much fighting. The problem is they’re defending their homes so they’re fighting a lot harder now. I doubt Ukraine can pull it off but I think they bloodied the Russians more than they anticipated. In large part because of his threats.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin dismissed much of his intelligence and made unrealistic timetables and assumptions.
Putin's threats had the opposite effect of what they were meant to accomplish. He thought he could easily get the band back together for Soviet Union 2: Electric Boogaloo, instead, the Ukrainians smashed his forces in the face and began to retake lost ground after a few days.

This is what I don't get. I've given the Ruskies a benefit of a doubt at the beginning, but did they honestly expect a OIF steamroll? Is Putin making these grand military decisions like bunkered up Hitler, or are his generals and advisors literally this incompetent and outright dumb?
I'd say that he probably got rid of anyone who criticized his grand plans. He's been successful for two decades, he got cocky and thought that he was right all the time, so he probably dismissed all voices of protest and surrounded himself with yes-men. Which of course, leads to disasters like these. Now he's threatening to end the world because he couldn't conquer what used to be his nation's backyard.

You know you fucked up as a leader when your country was better off under COMMUNISM of all fucking ideologies
Yep. That's what the oligarchs did to Russia. And instead of wiping them out or subduing them and introducing genuine free-market competition, Vladdy decided to go to war.
 
Assuming their not lying what is the strategic advantage of not informing your troops?
They thought that Ukraine would have flatlined in the first few days. By the time the troops learn the truth, Ukraine would be Russian territory......or so they thought.

They wouldn't be that motivated if they knew the truth.

Going by this thread the war is already over.
It's dying down. It's not over yet, but it seems both sides are ready to talk after Putin got his nation humiliated in the eyes of the world.
 
speaking of glowies? whats up with the weird disinformation campaigns?
who's prepetrating the ghost of Kiev and the Snake Island stories?
It's probably a mix of people looking to get clicks and the news being the media by not caring what they publish in terms of validity. At least some people are catching on and making compilations of bullshit stories.

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It's been just 4 days, and Ukraine is not Iraq, which took the US and allies 3 weeks to blitz over. Sure, Iraq is far away, but like Ukraine - it's mostly flatland and the Arabs poor soldiers. The Ukrainians have beaten off several assaults in engagements we have no details of.

Blitzkrieg is a doctrine that requires air and ground forces to be sort of in sync and the presence of heavy armor - lots of it. They're mostly using motorized regiments, not tank brigades or anything close to that as far as I know.

I doubt there's a single person in the intelligence division who cares about Ukraine more than about Russia... but it is very strange why the Russians are using so much restraint. I honestly believed they would have leveled at least one city as an example of fearmongering.

There's no reason to think the Russians aren't making acceptable progress.
Actually there is. Look at the force assaulting Kyiv. They did an end run through Beelarus to strike from the north. How is he supplying that force? Does he have a long logistical chain running through Belarus? He clearly planned for those forces to quickly take the city and link up with his forces coming from the east. He's now at day 4. The point where Russian Doctrine is to swap those front line forces with fresh divisions. How cooperative are the Belarus citizens?. At what point do the Russians go from passing through to becoming an occupying army on Belarussan soil? It's another point in this that feels poorly thought out. Moreso than is normal for Putin. Kyiv was clearly not supposed to last 4 days. His Belarussan bypass army was not supposed to stall in the suburbs. So now he has an unwanted complication of having to deal with his forces traversing a ostensively uninvolved third nation for a more extended period. Which means Belarus is now at war with Ukrain, regardless of what its citizens or leadership chose to do. Meaning they come under international pressures to act against Putin. Even if its just closing borders and dissavowing involvement. It's just another poorly thought out variable with the potential to go bad very fast.
 
And winners don't need to rely on such drastic scare tactics. The Americans didn't need to use the threat of nukes during Iraq or Afghanistan. Even when they were getting harried by guerillas and Taliban. Meanwhile, Vladdy gets a few days of bogged-down combat, and he's already threatening to launch the nukes. That's not the winning side. He's obviously gotten far behind his military timetable, and he's running out of time and money. Which, coupled with the sanctions, is a really bad place to be, economically.
That's their strategy, Russia's different. There's also the fact that America enjoys total supremacy in its part of the world - Russia doesn't, and is far away from the countries it's invading. It's not the same.
 
IMO, to me there are two explanations of Russia's performance and Putin's behavior right now. The first one is that Putin expected to Ukrainians to basically put up no fight and that they'd be able to roll into Kyiv effortlessly while Zelensky fled with the entire treasury to Brussels. It's again, the Soviet playbook that was brought out in Hungary and Czechoslovakia and it worked well enough there, and it worked when Putin seized Crimea. If that was the plan, it's clearly failed and Putin is going to have to go in and take those cities Chechnya style now. The other explanation is that the pushes on Kyiv and Kharkiv are maskirovka, while Russian heavy units push from Crimea and encircle and neutralize the Ukrainian mobile forces in the East, while Putin himself plays a little Nixon-style madman theory. That would allow both Putin to save face by claiming he succeeded in what he set out to do (demilitarize and 'denazify' the threats to the breakaway republics) and Zelensky to save face by holding on to Kyiv. I tend towards the former explanation but the latter is still in the back of my mind.
 

I'm continuing to see credible footage of Bayraktar drones blowing up Russian units.

Ukraine's drones are vulnerable, and they don't have very many of them. If Russia is really taking continual losses from a handful of plucky Ukrainians in gamer chairs flying slow ass Turkish RC planes, the meme of Russian air superiority is dead

Ukrainian Navy to receive Turkish Bayraktar TB2 UCAV.jpg
 
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