дядя Боря
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Mar 21, 2019
In the interest of discussing something interesting, how about them peace talks?
My take is that unless the Ukranians are both planning and capable of turning this into a never-ending guerilla war and spending the next 20 years playing fuck-fuck games with Russian troops until they get bored and fuck off, this may be the best negotiating hand they're going to get. I've made mention of my belief that Putin really doesn't want to make a mess in Kiev and throw away all his hard work to keep the civilian casualties low, and now that the city's encircled, he's on a timer in that regard before people start starving. The Russians are still advancing, particularly in the South, but they haven't grabbed enough land to make a credible claim for annexation or taking large swaths of the country, and Ukraine still has too many troops in the field for Putin to force demilitarization or a regime change.
If both parties are competent negotiators and manage to reach a settlement, then I'm expecting the release of the separatist-claimed territories along with a guarantee either that Ukraine will stay away from NATO or just outright neutrality, possibly balanced out by minor concessions from Russia like promises to not invade again and/or relief and reconstruction aid.
even uberfaggot with dead wife, kid and doggo will drop balls and likely spend the rest of its life haunting its russian bros.
the real problem is that most people here never experience a dramatic loss in their lives and think that it's something rational and Ukrainians will just rationally add two plus two and bend over.
If Putin did indeed conducted a blitzcrieg and took over Kyiv in the first 24h with capturing the airport and large VDV drop, West would be fine with it. They were if you were keeping attention in the first day of the invasion: laughable sanctions and 5000 used helmets.
At this point every Western country is trying to outdo the other to supply shit and attention whore about it. Time is NOT on Vlad's side.
Russia has literally run out of their precision missiles and pulling heavy artillery to bomb the same airports they were bombing on day one of the invasion. The retardation of this is beyond words.