War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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Finland getting in on the gig and sending shit to Ukraine. However far more interesting is the fact that
a)They've hit the necessary threshold of 50k signatures to trigger a parliamentary debate about officially joining NATO and
b)For the first time ever a poll has shown a majority support joining with 53% support/28% opposed/19% unsure.

GG Putin you fucking dumbass
Not sure if that's a wise move right now since Putin still isn't back on his meds.
Maybe he checks her IG account and activates his Slavic Rape DNA? And since Finland isn't in NATO yet.

Finland-PM4.png
 
Germany to rearm.. and Europe to actually friggin root for it. France and Poland like “ah finally! What’s been keeping you guys?”
Not.

None of France nor Poland was thinking about war with Germany or see Germany as a military threat. Both of them had too strong relations with Germany in fields of economy and both of them was interested in other activities in military field than prepare defense against Germany. Mostly because "united Europe" is in fact just a giant Germany in economic terms.

Also re-armed Germany not neccessary will operate their new brand army alone. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1st_Panzer_Division_(Bundeswehr) for further reading. And yes, prey of Nazi Germany just integrated vital part of their own military force with germany division.

Their are also decade long dispute about creating common army for EU.

@Koko Jumbo I doubt that they have plan. Russian central bank reacted wrong after collapse of russian money. Their take the interest rates to te sky from 8,5 to 20% and shut down stock exchenge (and my mother is upset about that, she had a small pack of VTB stocks). Further readingL https://www.theguardian.com/busines...l-bank-rates-rouble-sanctions-economy-ukraine

I just couldn't point what they want to do with that. Increasing interest rates haver some very certain purposes:

- to take money from market by selling state bonds (some of them have interests rates somehow corelated with central bank interests rates),
- to get some foreign currencies that way,
- to get money from citizens (in some way: many credits in Europe had costs based in some way with interest rates).

All of this is leading to making some more foreign currencies into state hands and lowering consumption to stop inflation. But thats nothing for Russia in this moment: they have nearly no acces to foreign buyers of bonds, they can sell them only own citizens and companies. But for what for god sake? They don't need more RUB, they need real cash! And also I doubt that anyone will think in Russia about investing in their own bonds in this moment.

They will only print money in this way to pay their own liabilities. Nothing more.
 

Ukraine supplies 90% of U.S. semiconductor-grade neon (and what it means to chip supply chain)​


Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, experts warn that the conflict could impact the global chip industry and exacerbate current chip shortages.

According to research firm Techcet, Ukraine supplies more than 90% of the U.S.’s semiconductor-grade neon, a gas integral to the lasers used in the chip-making process, while Russia supplies 35% of the U.S.’s palladium supply, a rare metal that can be used to create semiconductors.

While the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) argues “the semiconductor industry has a diverse set of key materials and gases, so we do not believe there are immediate supply disruption risks related to Russia and Ukraine,” the long-term impact of the conflict remains unclear.

With such a high amount of the U.S.’s semiconductor-grade neon supplied by the Ukraine, the conflict is placing increasing pressure on a supply chain that’s already made it difficult to source chips for hardware and enterprise applications throughout the pandemic.

The long-term impact of semiconductor neon shortage​

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine comes after the demand for chips has increased across the board throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, as consumers and enterprises have demanded greater access to electronics.

For enterprises, demand for chips that specialize in artificial intelligence for machine learning training and inference is predicted to grow at over 50% annually across all computing categories for the next few years.

While entities like the South Korean government have invested $451 billion in semiconductor development and Intel invested $20 billion in two new semiconductor foundries to combat the chip shortage, the U.S. government has warned that the global chip supply chain remains weak.

“We are glad that the companies [Intel, Ford, GM] have been looking for creative solutions, because the private sector is best-positioned to address bottlenecks,” Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo wrote in a blog post last month. “But the semiconductor supply chain remains fragile and it is essential that Congress move swiftly to pass the President’s proposed $52 billion in chips funding as soon as possible.”

Within the post, Raimondo noted that the median inventory of chips fell from 40 days in 2019 to less than five days in 2022 and that most chip fabs are running at more than 90% utilization.

Some of the key bottlenecks she identified included legacy logic chips used in automobiles and medical devices as well as analog chips used in power management, image sensors, radio frequency and other applications. The loss of fabs in the Ukraine would greatly impact this shortage.

This means there’s a need for more fabs to produce semiconductors, which is why the House of Representatives recently put forward its version of the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act (USICA) with $52 billion in domestic semiconductor funding.

 
Why do they now throw so much arms at the Ukros? Since Putin plans to go full ogga bogga on Kiev, this whole war could be over at the end of the week and Russians would parade their guns through the cities.
 
@Useful_Mistake:

Second big producer of palladium is South Africa (and also palladium has high price, and it was growing larger and larger from years. I just remember how cheap was palladium back in 2008 (AFAIR 1/5 of gold price), just before war that thing was in higher price than gold... and achieved his Chad role years ago), but how neon is produced?

Is it easy enough to get it frome other place?
 
Why do they now throw so much arms at the Ukros? Since Putin now goes full ogga bogga on Kiev, this whole war could be over at the end of the week and Russians would parade their guns through the cities.
They’ve decided that it’s not a waste to give them arms. I suspect the EU believes they can take Russia’s army and that it’s in their interest to inflict as many casualties as possible now. Likely they believe the Ukrainians are punching above their weight and/or Russia’s military is underperforming. If they thought Russia would steam roll the EU before, they’ve likely concluded that isn’t currently the case barring nuclear weapons.
 
They are actually doing it. They are starting their own economic suicide over Ukraine. It took an edge-lord ex-KGB stooge, a senile boob and a literal comedian to start The West's decline. This day is a victory for every accelerationist under the sun holy shit.
I'm pretty sure that West will be still standing tommorow. And probably next day, and next week and next year.
 
They’ve decided that it’s not a waste to give them arms. I suspect the EU believes they can take Russia’s army and that it’s in their interest to inflict as many casualties as possible now. Likely they believe the Ukrainians are punching above their weight and/or Russia’s military is underperforming. If they thought Russia would steam roll the EU before, they’ve likely concluded that isn’t currently the case barring nuclear weapons.
That sounds about right. The Ukrainians are fighting back better than most people excepted
 
Likely they believe the Ukrainians are punching above their weight and/or Russia’s military is underperforming. If they thought Russia would steam roll the EU before, they’ve likely concluded that isn’t currently the case barring nuclear weapons.
I'm not sure. The war just started not even a week ago and it seems like Putin mainly used the scum at the frontlines like Chechens mercenaries. He will probably now launch a major offensive on Kiev soon with the large convoy he gattered.
 
Why do they now throw so much arms at the Ukros? Since Putin plans to go full ogga bogga on Kiev, this whole war could be over at the end of the week and Russians would parade their guns through the cities.
Read about post-war UPA, just avoid soviet and polish sources because they focused on "bad UPA was making bad things, roar". After that find some papers about UPA fighters behaviour in gulags - long sstory short: soviet prison and forced labour system was based on squealers cooperating with guards. Political, POV's and plain criminals wasn't able to deal with that. UPA guys after beeing imprisioned in no time found a way to deal with that: they just slaugthered all of squealers (and also some other people) in way that nearly no one was likely to cooperate with guards.

Solzhenitsyn (AFAIR, not sure) decribed prisioners from UPA as too stupid and enough brutal to stop squealering. That was enough to organize some revolts in labour camps, like Kengir uprising.

Ukrainians are very tough in partisan mode. USSR was fighting them for years before they succed.

I see some options why West supplies Ukraine so hard:

- the war isn't easy to win, so upported Ukraine will survive making several damage in russian forces - a good thing from NATO perpective,
- Ukraine will fall quite fast, but their will be able to hold bloody partisans campaign (probably with muh terrorism in russian cities) so Putin will be concerned about something else that beeing a bully of Eurasia,
- NATO from some reasons didn't be afraid any more about MAD doctrine - maybye they didn't afraid about russian nuclear bombs from many years. They was affraid about russian land army. And now, when it is clear that Russians didn't have enough force to bully Ukraine (they had jut to kill Zelensky, take control of some points of country, reinstall loyal president and flex) maybye NATO or EU countries just decide this is time to Endlösung der Putinfrage. Russia has some fancy resources in their hand and will be a great place to competente with China after all. In any scenario about regime change in Russia China will be instantly forced into taking care about many things, so they will not be so present in Africa or Pacific. Win-win scenario for everyone (well, not for Russians - but after erruption of anti-Russian propaganda I think the next step will be to dehumanize them in media).

I'm think the first two options are more probable that the third. But Allah, I'm really hate Russians and Serbs, so I probably not the best guy to think about NATO and EU concepts about them.

And yeah, magic convoy. Call me when they arrive. And when their take any positions to take a offensive, not just to be on road as a very good prey for unknown ukrainian drons.
 
I'm not sure. The war just started not even a week ago and it seems like Putin mainly used the scum at the frontlines like Chechens mercenaries. He will probably now launch a major offensive on Kiev soon with the large convoy he gattered.
Yeah, we’ll see. It could change on a dime.

I don’t know either but based on what the EU is doing they believe it’s in their interests to inflict as many casualties as possible. It doesn’t necessarily mean Ukraine will win, just that it’s in their interest to hurt Russia as much as possible even if there are repercussions.

*Edit* imo the EU wouldn’t be acting so decisively if it wasn’t confident and if there wasn’t an immediate threat.
 
I'm not sure. The war just started not even a week ago and it seems like Putin mainly used the scum at the frontlines like Chechens mercenaries. He will probably now launch a major offensive on Kiev soon with the large convoy he gattered.

Even if they take Kiev it still won't necessarily guarantee a win, the United States lost control of Washington DC in the War of 1812 but we didn't surrender to the British. We just kept on going and forced them into a stalemate and they had to back off and withdraw because it wasn't feasible to keep fighting.

And in the worst case if Ukraine fell completely there'd likely still be Ukrainians willing to fight in a resistance like the French did after the Nazis made France surrender; the French resistance was particularly effective at making the lives of German occupiers very painful and miserable.

In any case though Putin has thoroughly fucked Russia's economic aspirations with this move, if I were anyone in Russia with lots of money and financial investments I'd not look kindly at the KGB runt in Moscow.
 
Yeah, we’ll see. It could change on a dime.

I don’t know either but based on what the EU is doing they believe it’s in their interests to inflict as many casualties as possible. It doesn’t necessarily mean Ukraine will win, just that it’s in their interest to hurt Russia as much as possible even if there are repercussions.

*Edit* imo the EU wouldn’t be acting so decisively if it wasn’t confident and if there wasn’t an immediate threat.
alternatively, decisions are not being made by any rational calculation at all, just by emotion and groupthink.

"something must be done, this is something, therefore we must do it."

it is all happening so quickly, politicians cannot possibly be doing calm pro/con tallying up of expected consequences from this or that diplomatic action.

it might even be that they are not even thinking of consequences at all; that this has been such a tremendous psychological upheaval that they are resorting to intuition and fast moralistic judgements. i.e. sanction russia and send fighter jets to ukraine not because it will bring russia to the peace table but because it is intrinsically the "right thing to do", in and of itself.

comparison: remember how quickly the authorities switched from lockdowns-dont-work to we-must-lockdown two years ago? it wasn't based on calmly considered evidence, it was done in a giddy panic. and how the justification for the measures morphed from a concrete and specific flatten-the-curve KPI to an endless moralistic-medical ritual.

needless to say this raises the risk of nuclear war considerably. MAD theory rests on participants being rational consequentialist actors.
 
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Crimea War also had the English, French and Piedmont-Sardinia allying up with the Ottomans against Russia. Shit logistics or not Russia would've stomped the Ottomans had they been on their own.
I'm aware, but it doesn't change the fact Russians were dying in droves thanks to their own incompetence.
Hell, I think 99% of people who post that Independent article have never actually read it where Bin Laden outright says he never personally saw evidence of American aid. They also don't seem to realize the person writing the article is someone who has always been critical of American adventures in the Middle East. Does that mean the CIA has clean hands in this case? Probably not, but it's a pretty old case of people blindly posting a headline that seems to agree with whatever narrative is being pushed without bothering to read what the actual article says.
Oh no, we absolutely were funneling weapons and money to the mujahedeen, just not to Osama bin Laden himself. Personally I consider it payback for the Russians equipping the North Vietnamese, so I'm not exactly broken-up about Hinds falling out of the sky.
Switzerland will forego "Swiss neutrality" and adopt same sanctions as EU against Russia
Jesus Christ, you know you've fucked up when not even the Swiss are willing to be neutral about things.
I stand corrected, then. But it's weird that Putin never addressed this flaw. Stalin tried to, at the very least, even at a cost to his own countrymen. Putin really thought the shock factor would stick and it would do most of the work, and now that it failed, he's utterly humiliated in the global scene.
@LORD IMPERATOR If you want to have good logistics, you need good infrastructure. Russia has and probably always will lack the latter simply on account of its sheer size.
If Ukraine ever joins NATO, the Volgograd Gap and thus, the very means of Russian survival in the first place gets put into jeopardy. It would’ve been better off as a neutral buffer state, but Putin has shown us all that he’s not willing to play ball with any nation that isn’t squarely within the firm grasp of the Kremlin.
That is perhaps, the most ironic bit of Russian paranoia. They've been so determined to have total control over their border regions that they wind up fucking themselves. A reduced, but independent Poland would have been a greater impediment to Nazi Germany than Russia and Germany sharing a border inside Poland.
Given how Muh Russian Collusion the West has been, there's no guarantee that removing Putin wouldn't just collapse the Russian state and turn the entire region into Slav Libya.
Slav Libya is the natural state of that area without an all-powerful ruler forcing everyone to work for him. There's a reason shit immediately Balkanized following the outbreak of the Russian Civil War in 1917. Place is just too damn big to have centralized rule that isn't under an autocrat.
For the 1000th time, no one wants to invade fucking Russia. Maybe the Chinks do, but not the West. We can everything we need from them by buying it at a normal, competitive price, just like any other country.

Edit: I double responded by accident. I fixed it
History disagrees. Sadly what matters less to the Russians is what will likely happen as opposed to what might happen. And I suppose the Poles might have one day decided to invade Russia all by themselves to avenge a couple centuries of humiliation. The odds are so low as to be zero, statistically speaking, but they aren't actually zero, and that's what matters to the Russian mindset. Of course, that was before Russia fucked up so badly with Ukraine, so they may very well just decide to snatch back some of what was lost in 1945... Putin has put his country's strategic situation into the shitter, with the Russian Army being demonstrated to be of surprisingly little effectiveness against even Ukraine, so the Polish Army that actually has its shit together both in terms of soldier quality and modern equipment and doctrine might very well make it halfway to Moscow before they get bored and decide to call an end to the advance.
The name you are looking for is Lockheed Martin. Purveyors of the F-35 (Germany is all of a sudden on board with massive military upgrade. Imagine that!) and of course the now highly sought after FGM-148 Javelin Home and Garden Defense system.
View attachment 3028777
It's what Texan's like to politely refer to as "A Ladies Purse Gun"
This war has been the best advertisement Raytheon ever could have asked for, and people are paying them for the privilege of getting to do product demos. I think we all anticipated the Javelin would be of use against Russian armor, but I don't think anyone expected it to be quite so good at its job. I'll confess that the War Thunder devs are a personal lolcow of mine, so I look forwards to the forum salt surrounding Russian vehicles, especially top tier, once/if things calm down.
We won't buy the F-35 since Germany already invested quite a hell lot of money into the Eurofighter program since the late 90s. The heavy arms industry in Germany is the strongest in Europe and we will buy all the stuff now that normaly goes to the Saudis or Israel.

The biggest problem with this Wehrmacht 2.0 plan is that the high ranking officals of the German army are completly retarded (offically even according to major newspapers) and that we don't have actual experience with war besides some meme fighting in the Kosovo and Afghanistan. Don't know how much man power you need for a modern army but before we abolished conscription in the late 2000s we had like 450.000 soldiers. Now we only have like 190.000 kek.
Not demonizing people who want to join out of a love of country as the start of a new Waffen-SS would be a good start.
Putin doesn't strike me as a catgirl dude. Or a guy who wants a mommy wife.
Everyone knows Russians go for wolfgirls.
 
A very good look at the financial fallout from this. Granted it’s a day old and doesn’t account for things like Switzerland yet.

This war has been the best advertisement Raytheon ever could have asked for, and people are paying them for the privilege of getting to do product demos. I think we all anticipated the Javelin would be of use against Russian armor, but I don't think anyone expected it to be quite so good at its job. I'll confess that the War Thunder devs are a personal lolcow of mine, so I look forwards to the forum salt surrounding Russian vehicles, especially top tier, once/if things calm down.
From what I’m starting to see from actual experienced military people, looking at what’s been happening, is it’s not just that the Tanks aren’t the Wonderweapons promised. It’s that there is no proper movement doctrine being followed by the Russian Army. They are driving around as if it is a transfer shuttle between bases for a weekend training. There is no road discipline. No proper spacing or layout, no effort at defense positioning or putting the offensive stuff up front. They look like a parade of Canadian truckers. Honk Honk. This makes the Job of the Javelin Equipped Defenders oh so much easier. I’ve just seen a few bits where apparently the Russian Army thought they were just on a training drill, until they were told to drive into Ukraine. They found out about the invasion about an hour before the Ukrainians. Which seems absurd, until you start looking at the pictures coming out of Ukraine. It’s clear nobody on the ground in the Russian Army was in any way prepared for this.
 
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We won't buy the F-35 since Germany already invested quite a hell lot of money into the Eurofighter program since the late 90s. The heavy arms industry in Germany is the strongest in Europe and we will buy all the stuff now that normaly goes to the Saudis or Israel.

The biggest problem with this Wehrmacht 2.0 plan is that the high ranking officals of the German army are completly retarded (offically even according to major newspapers) and that we don't have actual experience with war besides some meme fighting in the Kosovo and Afghanistan. Don't know how much man power you need for a modern army but before we abolished conscription in the late 2000s we had like 450.000 soldiers. Now we only have like 190.000 kek.
I thought Germany had already given up on the Eurofighter and was looking at ordering a boatload of F/A-18’s, a year or two ago, for reasons that confused everybody? Even some of the elected ministers were confused about that one. Wondering why not just buy the newer plane?
 
I thought Germany had already given up on the Eurofighter and was looking at ordering a boatload of F/A-18’s, a year or two ago, for reasons that confused everybody? Even some of the elected ministers were confused about that one. Wondering why not just buy the newer plane?
The Eurofighter has the problem that nobody fucking wants it. Everyone's buying the F-35 as fast as they can ink a deal. As a result, the economies of scale are fucking terrible, not just per-plane but also for spare parts, and jets run through parts so fast you'd think they were a Panther tank stuck in the Russian mud. People forget that when you buy a US weapon, you aren't just buying it, but access to the entire US spare parts inventory and logistics system for it. Hell of a fucking deal since due to the sheer scale of it the US can fix an Abrams in Germany cheaper than the Germans can fix a Leopard in Germany.
 
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