Well, here we go. It's now or never folks!
Right at this moment it feels as if we are in the eye of the storm, except the tail end of it is gonna sting far more than the first part of it, like a scorpion.
I've been following the thread here and at a few other places, taking it all in. Too sick of all the propaganda and being taken in so no comment from me, just keeping my ear to the ground listening to the all-round chatter. It seems we do really have an unstoppable force versus immovable object scenario going on here. Putin's playing poker, the West are playing chess and everyone else is playing catch up.
The fog of war has been more than that this time around. I guess it had to be so. No one has come out of this looking good. But why should they? Russia has maintained radio silence pretty much up to now with things slowly starting to leak, still, good opsec all round. The Ukies have just been treating this like a giant virtue signal with outright demonstrably proven lies. At least, 3 days later, they are demonstrated to be lies. Who knows, maybe in another 3 days they will say those keeping that little island really did say FUCK YOU RUSSIANS and got vaporised for their bravado. It's all so tiresome.
I don't have a horse in this race. I understand why Putin has done what he has done. That doesn't mean to say I 100 percent agree with his methods. To paraphrase a line from Apocalypse Now, when the Martin Sheen character is first told about his mission and given a quick brief on Colonel Kurtz: His methods are unsound! Yes, unsound sir, absolutely...
But it's realpolitik now. It should have been before, but that rabbit has jumped the trap. No time for fantasy island and dilly-dallying and tip-toeing through the tulips. Shit is about to get real. How real remains to be seen, but this is probably the most decisive part of the battle that is really a war. Hopefully not WWWIII but that remains to be seen as well.
The chatter over at sites like arrse (and they do provide some excellent updates that I've not seen even posted here) is that the Ukies are really holding their ground against those mean nasty Ruskies. It's got more polarised over there the last day or two, and that's to be expected. It may be the (un)official British Army/Navy/Air Force website, but you can glean a lot, as much from the propaganda as anything else, and boy has it been flowing thick over there. It's ok, they got their opsec and persec to take care of, and even though this fight doesn't necessarily involve the UK at the moment, we are involved to an extent. Boris was in Poland today giving a rousing speech apparently. He's playing Churchill to Putin's Hitler.
The losses that the Ukies have inflicted on the Ruskies is very very credible according to them. The Ukies are not just winning the propaganda war, but they are also winning the actual war if they are to be believed. You see, the Ruskies aren't just evil, everyone knows that, but they are incompetent as well. There is a very good chance of the Ukies winning this war even if they have to lose a few battles first. And besides, Putin is insane, he is on steroids for his cancer and this is the last hurrah of a maniac determined to go down in history. Kind of thing. Who knows, maybe they are half-right?
Another thing that seems to be happening, and even though it is said by another source to be not happening again, only to suddenly be happening again (it's all so tiresome), is the fact that the Ukies now have access to 70 airframes. And it would seem not just the typical Eastern Bloc Migs and Sukhois, but F-16's as well which the Ukie fighter pilots are being trained on at this very moment as we speak.
In fact, when people asked if Poland providing the majority of these airframes would not get punished as Putin already promised they would be, they said as much as "We are calling his bluff - we know he won't do shit about it, but it remains to be seen and it's our time to bluff now". That's why I said the 'West' are playing Chess. It's not 5D Chess, but it's a play or two further than the "Call my bluff" that Putin is playing. Really in reality, Putin's game is more like Checkers. But enough of these analogies. People don't usually die in these games, but a lot more people are about to die in the next 48 hours than all the time leading up to these events so far.
It seems to me listening to this chatter (and I'm probably very wrong) that the West is laying the groundwork for plausible deniability. Yes, Putin knows they aren't just providing logistics, they are actively arming his enemy, and more than that, he knows that yeah probably an SAS or Pathfinder team or two are already on the ground. But he's not had his bluff called and therefore his ego is still ok with that as long as he's winning - no one has publicly rubbed his nose in it. He's bluffed about as far as he can and he knows he is losing the wider propaganda war.
Putin is in a very difficult situation because if he escalates, it better be good. At best now I think he can only win a pyrrhic victory. At worst (and if he really is ill and all out for glory) he calls the bluff and maybe even decides to use a tactical nuke should the West get involved (and he loses face), then it may even be the case that he gets 'neutralised' by his own side because they don't want world war fucking III either. Those people in power don't care about the grunts on the ground but they have pretty nice lives all the same. Who knows, maybe they even love their children and want to see them grow up in a better world.
So the world is watching. Do we all just stand by and watch Kiev get Grozny'd to hell and back again? Do we some how find a way to diplomatically involve a credible counter-attack that can stop all this madness and nip it in the bud. After all, world opinion and not just twitter is on our side. That convoy is a sitting duck to NATO's air capabilities. It could very easily be made short work of. Maybe. The Ruskies still have pretty capable Anti-Aircraft themselves, probably the best in the world. But against 70 new aircraft? And also with the element of surprise. Anything can happen now and in the next 48 hours.
Never mind the boots on the ground, and never mind all those shiny new weapons the world is donating to the Ukies. They have to get them in country first. Although I'm sure they are on the way, they will only be for attrition if Putin orders his men to Grozny and obliterate even a part of Kiev. Victory will be swift in that case. Well, a kind of victory. In reality, the ante will just have been upped and the war effort displaced to a longer guerilla type of affair. Putin has one chance to shock and awe them Ukies in to obedience and if he doesn't take it now, it only gets harder for him optics wise. This is absolutely the most crucial part of the conflict so far.
I'll stick my neck out and say that I think the Ukies are going to suddenly get a lot of new air capability very quickly and they will use that to immobilise the train that the Ruskies are about to pull on Kiev's bot-bot.
How Putin deals with this, I don't know. It may even lose him the war. Then again it may just prolong the inevitable and more people will die as they are dragged in to a wider, longer war that no one can win, but everyone will take another 10-20 years out of their life trying to do so.
At what point does bravery and valiancy just become counter-productive and you end up like the Knight in that Monty Python sketch? The Ukies have already saved face no matter what happens now. If Putin is about to bomb them back to the stone age, well, no one will blame them for cutting a deal.
But if Putin does not do that for any reason, the Ukies will keep on fighting I feel, because this is their homeground. It's everything to win and everything to lose for them. Putin is playing an away game here, to use a sportsball analogy. But all the same, the stakes are equivalent: it's everything to win and everything to lose for him as well. His very survival depends on winning this battle/war. And winning it in a way that won't isolate Russia further and make it even more of a pariah state than it already is and is about to become.
Yes, I understand why he did this. No, it's not good that he's not really been given a way out and the sanctions may do as much harm as help. As much as for us as for him. And let's not even get in to the energy/gas issue right now. But he's also got to take responsibility for upping the ante with all his nuclear game talk. Who knows, maybe he even is in the right, in some kind of perverse way.
All this shit is moot though, because in the coming hours, not just Putin, but the whole rest of the world pretty much, is going to have to shit or get off the pot. And what makes this dilemma and stand-off so exquisite, is that no matter what either side does now, the shit is still going to hit the fan, and no one side can 'win' in any meaningful sense.
Hopefully, if things do have to go nuclear, and half of humanity is exterminated, well, won't it all have been worth it for our children, for this to finally be the war that ends all wars?
I wouldn't hold my breath on that one either at this point.