That's pretty plausible. Putin really doesn't want to occupy the entire country. Can see some more of eastern Ukraine going to the two "republics". Nevertheless, this will just widen and deepen the river of bad blood between Ukraine and Russia. Russia and Putin will still be considered and treated as pariahs by the rest of the world. More Western arms will flow into Ukraine to re-equip the forces.
Even if Russia wins, they have still lost, and the ramifications of that loss have just started.
You're acting as if Russia in 2090 will be at the 200th fucking Russo-Ukrainian war like how they did with the Ottomans, chill dude.