Day 10.
The Russian strategic pincer closes in on Zelensky's units in the Donbass. Russian forces from Crimea are advancing towards Kryvyi Rih, behind the Dnieper and the town of Dniepro.
Any orderly withdrawal of pro-NATO Ukrainian forces to western Ukraine will become impossible within a week. Once the pro-NATO Ukrainian forces are surrounded in the east, the Russian army will have a large number of troops to allocate to the Dnieper crossing towards central Ukraine.
Today's key facts:
- Yesterday there was a relative pause on both sides, with the Russians preparing for the second wave of assault and Zelensky's troops trying to form a coherent front in some areas, notably Zaporizhia.
- The Russian army is successfully exploiting its breakthrough in the south of the country to advance towards central Ukraine. The aim is to link up with the Russian forces in the Kiev sector to create a huge trap where the bulk of Zelensky's pro-NATO units will be trapped.
Northern axis (Kiev / Chernihiv)
The Kiev sector itself is relatively calm, the Russian army does not seem to be in a hurry to take the city and prefers to push its advantage towards the south, along the Dnieper.
The Ukrainian general staff understood this well. On the left bank of the Dnieper, the offensive has resumed.
Obykhiv:
Fastiv:
Also on the right bank of the Dnieper, again south of Kiev.
Eastern axis (Sumy / Kharkov)
In Sumy, street fighting is reported.
In Kharkov, the encirclement of the city is said to be imminent. However, it is unlikely that Ukrainian troops will withdraw, which should increase the already extensive damage to the city.
Eastern axis (Donbass)
The envelopment of the Ukrainian government forces, which are too far advanced in the Donbass, continues in the north of the front. Izium is under Russian fire.
A breakthrough in Zaporizhia towards Dnipro would result in the encirclement of pro-NATO units in the whole of south-eastern Ukraine.
Southern axis (Mariupol / Zaporizhia / Odessa)
The Russian army advances north of Mykolaiev towards the nuclear power station of Youjnooukrainsk. The Russian general staff wants to take control of the electricity supply in order to extend its authority over the population and the civil administration of the south of the country.
No organised resistance could be mounted by the Zelensky government in the south-west of the country since the beginning of the Russian operation. The Russian army is expected to reach (pro-Russian) Transnistria within a few days.
Anxious, Moldova, torn between a pro-EU party (currently in power) and a pro-Russian opposition, has applied for EU membership.
Movement towards Zaporijia
The front has stabilised in this sector in the last 48 hours since the capture of the Energodar power station.
Movement towards Odessa
For the moment, the Russian army is not trying to take Mykolaïv and is focusing on its advance north of the city.
The port of Odessa is on high alert, with the Russian fleet in position for a possible landing to take the city.
Mariupol
A ceasefire in Mariupol and Volnovakha was announced this morning by Moscow to allow the evacuation of civilians from the city, which is surrounded by Russian forces.
