War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

Status
Not open for further replies.
President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

Article
 
I don't doubt that Ukraine will eventually fall,
I very much do doubt it. I don't see any evidence of a major Russian breakthrough. I do see evidence of their forces being ground down into dust, as their army half-heartedly fights and they continue to face collapse. At this point we are in a staring contest to see who will blink first, and my money is on Russia. Russia's actions against Ukraine's civilians won't weaken their resolve; it will only embitter them and cause them to fight harder. Ukrainians will never allow Russia a victory now.
 
I very much do doubt it. I don't see any evidence of a major Russian breakthrough. I do see evidence of their forces being ground down into dust, as their army half-heartedly fights and they continue to face collapse. At this point we are in a staring contest to see who will blink first, and my money is on Russia. Russia's actions against Ukraine's civilians won't weaken their resolve; it will only embitter them and cause them to fight harder. Ukrainians will never allow Russia a victory now.
What I'm afraid of is Russia going scorching earth, carpet bombing and everything.
Right now they're still somewhat trying to avoid turning this into a straight up genocide, only because it would be terrible PR.

Otherwise Ukraine has home advantage, and will continue grinding down Russian forces for as long as they survive.
 
Jesus Christ dude, they've been fucking around in Ukraine for *checks calendar* eight years (that we know of), been increasingly confrontational towards the West and Ukraine in those eight years to the point of issuing outright demands to NATO all the way back in November. At no fucking point was NATO ever opposed to actual discussion with Russia. Hell, from my understanding he had already made his mind up to pull the trigger even as the West was trying to negotiate a peaceful outcome. Shit, I thought the latest remake of the Munich Conference with Germany replacing England and Putin taking Hitler's spot would have had Ukraine get force-fed a shit sandwich thanks to a Russian-German double team with France just shrugging their shoulders and saying there was nothing they could do.
Look what playing nice did to Libya and Iraq. The west has a history of talking and talking and at the same time undermining the other side. I personally think Putin should have cut gas off in the middle of winter and let europe freeze but at this point Russia had no other choice. You can see all the neocons glowing about regime change in russia and that was always the goal.
 
Jesus Christ dude, they've been fucking around in Ukraine for *checks calendar* eight years (that we know of), been increasingly confrontational towards the West and Ukraine in those eight years to the point of issuing outright demands to NATO all the way back in November. At no fucking point was NATO ever opposed to actual discussion with Russia. Hell, from my understanding he had already made his mind up to pull the trigger even as the West was trying to negotiate a peaceful outcome. Shit, I thought the latest remake of the Munich Conference with Germany replacing England and Putin taking Hitler's spot would have had Ukraine get force-fed a shit sandwich thanks to a Russian-German double team with France just shrugging their shoulders and saying there was nothing they could do.

I do wonder at the naivety of thinking NATO and the West were simply some benign force that did nothing. You can look at the history of color revolutions and assassination attempts and realize they aren't some innocent bystander. They were attempting to control Ukraine, just as much as the Russians were.
 
I do wonder at the naivety of thinking NATO and the West were simply some benign force that did nothing. You can look at the history of color revolutions and assassination attempts and realize they aren't some innocent bystander. They were attempting to control Ukraine, just as much as the Russians were.
Rarely anyone is 100% altruistic, reciprocation underlies any healthy relationship. But even with that in mind, what the West has to offer is way more appealing than Russia - country that doesn't even recognize them as a nation.

After this there's nothing else to say on that matter, Ukraine's relationship with Russia is over.
 
Look what playing nice did to Libya and Iraq. The west has a history of talking and talking and at the same time undermining the other side. I personally think Putin should have cut gas off in the middle of winter and let europe freeze but at this point Russia had no other choice. You can see all the neocons glowing about regime change in russia and that was always the goal.
I doubt it was ever a serious goal, or a realistically attainable one. Perhaps that has now changed, but not because of anything the West did.

Russia announced their spring draft early (archive). ISW concludes:
Russia is likely rapidly exhausting the manpower it can readily use to generate additional effective combat power even as its forces lose combat effectiveness in Ukraine amid high losses. Russian efforts to mobilize more manpower can bring more people into Russian combat units, but those people are unlikely to be well-enough trained or motivated to generate large amounts of new combat power.

Mobilization efforts are likely to start producing diminishing returns as Russia moves through the categories of fully-trained and recently-released reservists into categories of people further removed from their initial military experiences and/or those who will undergo hasty training before deployment to the front lines. Individual replacements for battlefield losses are unlikely to have the same training as their predecessors, and new units or those reinforced by these augmentees will not have undergone unit-level training prior to employment. More units and reservist replacements will likely appear in Ukraine, therefore, but the net effect on Russia’s actual combat capability will likely be small and diminishing.

A declaration of martial law and general mobilization would not overcome the structural challenges of Russia’s hybrid cadre-and-reserves and contract-soldier system. Creating cohesive fighting units cannot be accomplished overnight. Replacing individual combat casualties in Ukraine with recalled reservists who have gone years without military training is unlikely to dramatically increase Russian combat power.
 
Rarely anyone is 100% altruistic, reciprocation underlies any healthy relationship. But even with that in mind, what the West has to offer is way more appealing than Russia - country that doesn't even recognize them as a nation.

Currently, Ukraines President is Zelensky, now a rockstar in the Western world. You would assume that's the West's choice. He was elected in 2019.
hfhf.jpg

Ukraine is currently the 3rd largest Child Porn producer in the World.


Ukraine ranked 122nd out of 180 countries in 2021, the second most corrupt in Europe, ahead of Russia.[6]
 
Currently, Ukraines President is Zelensky, now a rockstar in the Western world. You would assume that's the West's choice. He was elected in 2019.
View attachment 3047617

Ukraine is currently the 3rd largest Child Porn producer in the World.


Ukraine ranked 122nd out of 180 countries in 2021, the second most corrupt in Europe, ahead of Russia.[6]
And how is this relevant to anything I said? If you were trying to prove me wrong, you've failed. Feel free to wail on that strawman as much as you want, though, if that makes you feel better.
 
What I'm afraid of is Russia going scorching earth, carpet bombing and everything.
Right now they're still somewhat trying to avoid turning this into a straight up genocide, only because it would be terrible PR.

Otherwise Ukraine has home advantage, and will continue grinding down Russian forces for as long as they survive.
Trouble is you need total uncontested domination of the airspace to pull that off. Putin could load up SRBM's with thermobarics, but those are the sorts of threats and targets pilots would practically fight each other over for the chance to pull the short straw. The TOS has a range of around 10 km at best with its newest rockets, but since those have only been in service for around 2 years not sure how many are in stockpiles. It would also green-light NATO sending heavier equipment than MANPADS and ATGM's over to Ukraine, stuff more powerful than the pants-browning ordnance their attached observers saw during Desert Storm. Stuff their Wagner Group "mercenaries" have nightmares about, at least the few survivors do. Carpet bombing? Well, you need strategic bombers for that, and they'd arguably be even more vulnerable and have the exact same risk of pilots not giving a damn about landing afterwards. Assuming of course Russia has enough in flyable condition they can risk their destruction which is... uncertain.
I do wonder at the naivety of thinking NATO and the West were simply some benign force that did nothing. You can look at the history of color revolutions and assassination attempts and realize they aren't some innocent bystander. They were attempting to control Ukraine, just as much as the Russians were.
What fucking control? By your own source posted NATO, the West, and largely Ukraine itself were happy to keep Ukraine as a largely neutral party in NATO's affairs with Russia, with Putin the one to upset the status quo by trying to force Ukraine into his direct sphere. Hell, prior to the Russian invasion I myself wouldn't want Ukraine or the Finns in NATO for the obvious reasons of them being traditionally in the Russian sphere in a somewhat consensual manner. Which is more than can be said for the rest of Eastern Europe who very, very much wanted the Russians to stay the fuck out of their affairs.
I doubt it was ever a serious goal, or a realistically attainable one. Perhaps that has now changed, but not because of anything the West did.

Russia announced their spring draft early (archive). ISW concludes:
Agreed on the regime change. Prior to the utterly disastrous showing I was thoroughly convinced Putin had enough popular support among the populace as he kept things from degrading too badly (at least by Russian standards) and had a military supportive enough and capable enough to ensure it would take far more effort than Putin was worth to remove him, resulting in a clusterfuck far worse than both of our misadventures combined. We're talking 20 years of death and chaos compressed into maybe six months... and that would be just the opening assault. Now? The odds of a few Chinese armored divisions "accidentally" taking over half of Siberia during a training exercise went from zero to "not entirely impossible or unexpected", and I'm sure there's a few Poles wondering what their odds are of Operation Pilsudski making it to Moscow before the autumn Rasputitsa season starts. They've already floated the idea of sending some planes over to Ukraine if the USA backfills them, so its not exactly like they're happy with just sending man-portable weapons and ammo over.

And yes, I do find it utterly hilarious the Wikipedia page has already been edited to call Putin out on Russians supposedly knowing better about the effects of their muddy season on combat operations.
 
Holyshit, big if true

(Archive)
So its official then
The United States is considering sending planes to Poland if Warsaw decided to send fighter jets to Ukraine, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on a visit to Moldova on Sunday.

He said:

"We are looking actively now at the question of airplanes that Poland may provide to Ukraine and looking at how we might be able to backfill should Poland decide to supply those planes.

I can’t speak to a timeline but I can just say we’re looking at it very, very actively."

The visit came after Blinken visited NATO-member Poland on Saturday as the alliance bolsters its eastern flank in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
 
So its official then
That's not fucking good. The USA has enough shit stockpiled to backfill all of Europe should they choose to send shit over, and I guarantee you Putin's thinking the exact same thing. If you think things are bad now...

Then again, I'm not surprised. Calling the spring draft early is a clear sign Russia's taken much bigger losses than anyone anticipated. Its likely he'll also draft more than the usual, probably 25-50%, so somewhere just under 200k... and he may use the war special military operation as a justification for extending the terms of the current crop. There's a non-zero chance things escalate big(ger) though.

What's really interesting though is your article from the ISW mentioning the call-up of individual replacements. You don't do that unless you're very concerned about dipping into your reserves, and it leaves you especially vulnerable to unexpected losses beyond your call-ups. Individual replacement was a major cause of the USA's manpower woes in its frontline divisions during late 1944, as unexpectedly high losses during the drive to the Rhine had left us short on replacement manpower. And then the Battle of the Bulge happened and we were forced to send literally anyone who could point a gun in the enemy's general direction to the frontlines. Oops.
 
That's not fucking good. The USA has enough shit stockpiled to backfill all of Europe should they choose to send shit over, and I guarantee you Putin's thinking the exact same thing. If you think things are bad now...

Then again, I'm not surprised. Calling the spring draft early is a clear sign Russia's taken much bigger losses than anyone anticipated. Its likely he'll also draft more than the usual, probably 25-50%, so somewhere just under 200k... and he may use the war special military operation as a justification for extending the terms of the current crop. There's a non-zero chance things escalate big(ger) though.

What's really interesting though is your article from the ISW mentioning the call-up of individual replacements. You don't do that unless you're very concerned about dipping into your reserves, and it leaves you especially vulnerable to unexpected losses beyond your call-ups. Individual replacement was a major cause of the USA's manpower woes in its frontline divisions during late 1944, as unexpectedly high losses during the drive to the Rhine had left us short on replacement manpower. And then the Battle of the Bulge happened and we were forced to send literally anyone who could point a gun in the enemy's general direction to the frontlines. Oops.
What this means is that you're going to see even more Russian boys turned into mincemeat. If they make conscription harsher, they'll be taking people who would usually be deemed unfit.
In some cases it's just people finding ways to avoid service, sometimes with doctored medical records and bribes. You'd be pressed to find young men who actually wants to serve, but it's mandatory anyway. And there's even fewer people who'd want to die for this stupid war.
 
Putin says conflict will only stop if Ukraine stops fighting and Russia's demands are met - Kremlin

Russia will only halt its military operation if Ukraine stops fighting and Moscow’s demands are met, the Kremlin said in a statement, reporting on a conversation between Russian president Vladimir Putin and Turkish president Tayyip Erdoğan.

Putin said the operation was going according to plan and to schedule, and that he hoped Ukrainian negotiators would take a more constructive approach at talks and take into account the reality on the ground, the Kremlin said.

Russia and Ukraine blame each other as Mariupol evacuation fails again

Pro-Russian separatists and Ukraine’s National Guard accused each other of failing to establish a humanitarian corridor out of the Ukrainian city of Mariupol on Sunday, the second time the sides have attempted to arrange it.

Ukraine 24 television showed a fighter of the Azov Regiment of the National Guard who said Russian and pro-Russian forces that have encircled the port city of about 400,000 continued shelling the areas that were meant to be safe.

The Interfax news agency cited an official of the Donetsk separatist administration who accused the Ukrainian forces of failing to observe the limited ceasefire.

The separatist official said only about 300 people have left the city. Ukrainian authorities have earlier said they planned to evacuate over 200,000 people from Mariupol.
 
That's not fucking good. The USA has enough shit stockpiled to backfill all of Europe should they choose to send shit over, and I guarantee you Putin's thinking the exact same thing. If you think things are bad now...
Let's put things into perspective on this: Ukraine doesn't have the infrastructure, weapons or knowledge to operate US/European fighter jets. MiG-29s however, it can, as it already operates these fighters.

All this would entail would be Poland - potentially Romania/Slovakia too - giving their MiG-29s to Ukraine in return for F16s they were already looking to replace them with.

The rest of Europe don't operate these old fashioned Soviet fighters, so they can't bolster what Ukraine has as they are not going to be able to operate Rafaeles, Typhoons or Grippens quickly enough for them to get into the fight and make a difference. So Ukraine might increase its fighters by about 1/3rd, which will make a huge difference but wouldn't be enough for Putin to try and broaden a conflict he is already losing.

I mean fuck the Russians appear to have run out of cruise missiles already, are we really to be worried about the rest of their conventional forces?
 
Let's put things into perspective on this: Ukraine doesn't have the infrastructure, weapons or knowledge to operate US/European fighter jets. MiG-29s however, it can, as it already operates these fighters.

All this would entail would be Poland - potentially Romania/Slovakia too - giving their MiG-29s to Ukraine in return for F16s they were already looking to replace them with.

The rest of Europe don't operate these old fashioned Soviet fighters, so they can't bolster what Ukraine has as they are not going to be able to operate Rafaeles, Typhoons or Grippens quickly enough for them to get into the fight and make a difference. So Ukraine might increase its fighters by about 1/3rd, which will make a huge difference but wouldn't be enough for Putin to try and broaden a conflict he is already losing.

I mean fuck the Russians appear to have run out of cruise missiles already, are we really to be worried about the rest of their conventional forces?
Just give foreign pilots and all the necessary support personnel Ukrainian citizenship 5head
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back