War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

Article
 
I know Russia has it coming thanks to Putin but it'll suck seeing big chunks of Russia divided up and given to China.
"That land is historically Chinese anyway, a small price to pay for saving Russia from full effect of sanctions"

It would be fucking funny if Russia got those tiny bits of Donietsk and Lugansk from Ukraine but lost tons more to China for not even open support but for abstaining from condemnation. China owns them at this point.
 
That's the thing though, in a hypothetical situation (not entirely impossible, mind you) where Putin was ousted and there's chaos in Russia, China could have capitalize on the opportunity and grab some land under the pretext of "order and peace". But that's going to show to the real world who and what CCP's China actually are, especially when in this hypothetical situation, the world had just experienced a war in Europe they don't want to see any new Putin again
 
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EU member states agree new sanctions package against Russia and exclude 3 Belarus banks from Swift

EU member states have agreed new sanctions against Russian leaders and oligarchs over its invasion of Ukraine, reports Reuters.

The French presidency of the EU said members approved the sanctions at a meeting and that they will be formally adopted by the EU Summit on Thursday and Friday in Versailles.

They said the new measures clarify questions over cryptocurrencies, exclude three Belarus banks from Swift and target the maritime sector.
I'll archive it later, its way too slow on my end
 
Which analysis was this again, and why do you find it odd?

Also, British MoD Update, can't believe we're already in Week 2 of the war
View attachment 3057387
Pretty much everything Clint says sounds ‘off’. Whether it’s saying sanctions help Putin or just generally repeating any and all Russian talking points. I suppose what makes it a special kind of weird to me is he came out of nowhere yet now is getting to pop up on TV as an expert in spite of having no special knowledge or skills to help interpret the situation. It’s like he’s been reborn as a Russia expert thanks to the collective willpower of the dissident right’s confirmation bias.
 
Pretty much everything Clint says sounds ‘off’. Whether it’s saying sanctions help Putin or just generally repeating any and all Russian talking points. I suppose what makes it a special kind of weird to me is he came out of nowhere yet now is getting to pop up on TV as an expert in spite of having no special knowledge or skills to help interpret the situation. It’s like he’s been reborn as a Russia expert thanks to the collective willpower of the dissident right’s confirmation bias.

Everything he says in his twitter feed is word for word identical to some social media users that operate in the part of the internet that speaks my native language. I must assume that these are actually real paid shills, or at least there is some Russian coordination feeding them this bullshit. Point in all this is probably to spread doubt at the westerners, to make our politicians doubt whether they are doing the right thing, while in actuality the very existence of propaganda pieces like this should tell us the exact opposite; that the sanctions are indeed biting, that the people of Russia are indeed unhappy with the situation, and that Putins grip on the country is becoming shakier day by day.
 
Okay, after doing some reading I think we can put a bottom limit in terms of Russian and Ukrainian vehicle losses, and then determine where this leaves us with regards to the state of the invading force - as they are more reliant on armour for their offensives.

This site has been collating visually confirmed vehicle losses from Ukraine and Russia.

As of this time, Russia has had 949 visually confirmed vehicle losses. This includes those that are destroyed, damaged or captured by Ukraine.

Whereas Ukraine has lost 275. Notably, there is visual confirmation of Ukraine capturing more Russia vehicles than they have lost. (Although this doesn't mean they will all be used in combat).

The War on the Rocks article Feeding the Bear also notes poor logistical capacity from Russia.

Anyway, assuming the visual confirmations of Russian losses only - and not non-visually confirmed, although plenty good reason to think that not all losses have been visually confirmed - we can assess the damage to the Russian invasion force.

120 BTGs that invaded. Each has approx 10 tanks, 40 IFVs. So in total there should be approx 1,200 tanks and 4,800 IFVs used in the invasion.

Visually confirmed Russian losses amount to like 950 vehicles. Like 500ish are tanks or IFVs. So just visually confirmed ones amount to close to 10% of Russian armour.

Ukrainian estimates are closed to 1,300 losses of armoured vehicles. However, I doubt this number - not because Ukrainians aren't truthful, but all militaries over estimate their kills. Look at the UK in WW2 in North Africa, the LRDG claims it's desert raids took out hundreds of aircraft - yet they're never mentioned by Rommel? They weren't lying, just mistaken. Maybe some lying too, "oh yeah bro I shot 20- no 30 tanks and they all blew up!".

With that said, Ukrainian regular forces are a minority of those who post videos. I believe this is because they've got semi-decent OpSec and are not allowed to regularly film with their phones (probably not allowed to carry them) whereas Irregulars, SWAT equivalents do carry them.

Similarly, Russians do not often post videos, so I would expect this is an underestimation of lost Ukrainian armour. I believe this is probably due to a lack of phone coverage.

I'll conclude that I think Russia has lost between 10-20% of its tanks/IFVs. Ukraine I couldn't even speculate, but due to them being in the defensive and having support of the civilian population I think their armour is less crucial for them to win the fight.
 
Everything he says in his twitter feed is word for word identical to some social media users that operate in the part of the internet that speaks my native language. I must assume that these are actually real paid shills, or at least there is some Russian coordination feeding them this bullshit. Point in all this is probably to spread doubt at the westerners, to make our politicians doubt whether they are doing the right thing, while in actuality the very existence of propaganda pieces like this should tell us the exact opposite; that the sanctions are indeed biting, that the people of Russia are indeed unhappy with the situation, and that Putins grip on the country is becoming shakier day by day.
You know what, I think you're onto something here. I compared it with those shills in my language who are also shills, and the talking points are similar. Hell, the profiling is also similar, a literal who with suspicious looking credentials is pushed by certain channels or group. You might have found an actual paid shill here @SBG
 
"Withdraw from NATO" is an idea with debatable and defensible positions. I'll hear you out on that one.

The rest is meaningless gobbledygook with the usual "America Bad" buzzwords.

Not that it matters, the DSA has a 60 year old record of being unable to do anything except drown in the minutiae of trying to set up the Diversity and Inclusion subcommittee to organize the committee that will submit a list of people to the Leadership Sub-Council who will then install the podium from which the call to Revolution (tm) will be made.

They were so bad at it, in fact, that modern politicians just decided to stop waiting for them and tried to institute Socialism on their own without that charismatic Red Guard street army. Shame they had to make due with violent Antifa thugs and BLM.... otherwise they may have gotten somewhere.
 
IIRC, the scar on Harrys face is the same bu like N, and it came from Voldemort trying to kill him but failing. In this instance I think that what is implied here is the imminent Russian failure in this war.
There are Polish politicians and activists who claim the Z is the new swastika (Because Russians started using Z as a symbol of supporting the invasion, at least their propaganda did) so perhaps it's the only acceptable way the author could say "But Ukraine is nazi still".

Far more likely theory is as simple as "Voldemort gave harry the scar by casting spell on him (idk details, voldemort tried killing harry but his mom's love protected him so all he got was a scar)" Z is seen as a mark of Russian invasion, Zelensky is Ukraine, thus he get's marked by putin's Invasio Ukrainu spell. It's fucking retarded and can be interpreted both ways, it really depends on where on the spectrum the author is.

Edit: I read Harry Potter when I was around 8 and didn't watch half of the movies so my memory of it's lore is foggy.

Edit 2: Z by itself is a symbol painted with spraypaint on Russian tanks and vehicles, if intelligence reports are right it's supposed to mean little more to Russians "This is our guys, attacking from the east" to prevent friendly fire but since has become something of a symbol of the invasion due to social media posts about Z marked vehicles, far as I know my cyryllic, Z is not a letter in their alphabet so it would just be a symbol/mark for them.
Thanks! Some parts of the movies are now coming back.

The acceptance of nerd culture in the mainstream and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race.
 
Okay, after doing some reading I think we can put a bottom limit in terms of Russian and Ukrainian vehicle losses, and then determine where this leaves us with regards to the state of the invading force - as they are more reliant on armour for their offensives.

This site has been collating visually confirmed vehicle losses from Ukraine and Russia.

As of this time, Russia has had 949 visually confirmed vehicle losses. This includes those that are destroyed, damaged or captured by Ukraine.

Whereas Ukraine has lost 275. Notably, there is visual confirmation of Ukraine capturing more Russia vehicles than they have lost. (Although this doesn't mean they will all be used in combat).

The War on the Rocks article Feeding the Bear also notes poor logistical capacity from Russia.

Anyway, assuming the visual confirmations of Russian losses only - and not non-visually confirmed, although plenty good reason to think that not all losses have been visually confirmed - we can assess the damage to the Russian invasion force.

120 BTGs that invaded. Each has approx 10 tanks, 40 IFVs. So in total there should be approx 1,200 tanks and 4,800 IFVs used in the invasion.

Visually confirmed Russian losses amount to like 950 vehicles. Like 500ish are tanks or IFVs. So just visually confirmed ones amount to close to 10% of Russian armour.

Ukrainian estimates are closed to 1,300 losses of armoured vehicles. However, I doubt this number - not because Ukrainians aren't truthful, but all militaries over estimate their kills. Look at the UK in WW2 in North Africa, the LRDG claims it's desert raids took out hundreds of aircraft - yet they're never mentioned by Rommel? They weren't lying, just mistaken. Maybe some lying too, "oh yeah bro I shot 20- no 30 tanks and they all blew up!".

With that said, Ukrainian regular forces are a minority of those who post videos. I believe this is because they've got semi-decent OpSec and are not allowed to regularly film with their phones (probably not allowed to carry them) whereas Irregulars, SWAT equivalents do carry them.

Similarly, Russians do not often post videos, so I would expect this is an underestimation of lost Ukrainian armour. I believe this is probably due to a lack of phone coverage.

I'll conclude that I think Russia has lost between 10-20% of its tanks/IFVs. Ukraine I couldn't even speculate, but due to them being in the defensive and having support of the civilian population I think their armour is less crucial for them to win the fight.

It's also getting yeeted a lot less by advanced western anti-tank weapons. The fact the Russians haven't advanced in any way shape or form like they expected is testament to that.

The Fact the Russians have swapped from "denazification" to talking points about recognising their little cuck enclaves and not removing the government of Kyiv is testament to that.

They went from saying "Oh we destroyed the Ukranian airforce and air defences" to pictures of their aircraft and helicopters being shot out of the sky. (Ghost being progananda is neither here nor there, the Ukranian Airforce still stands).

Ontop of that is the massive disparity in methodology and training, the Ukranian military is far more Western in tone and attitude now than it was 10 years ago. It's gone from a soviet-style "Officers do all the work" to all volunteer/professional body with NCOs and officers, meaning its far more capable of continuing when an officer is killed than its Russian Counterpart which is still semi-organised like it's 1974.

The fact the front lines have barely moved in nearly 2 weeks is testament to that as well.
 

Chernobyl plant disconnected from power grid; Ukraine demands cease-fire for urgent repairs​


Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak called it an ‘extremely dangerous situation’​


Ukraine’s closed Chernobyl nuclear power plant has been disconnected from the nation’s power grid by Russian forces, Ukraine’s state-owned grid operator Ukrenergo said Wednesday, potentially jeopardizing the cooling of nuclear fuel still stored at the site.


“Because of military actions of Russian occupiers the nuclear power plant in Chornobyl was fully disconnected from the power grid. The nuclear station has no power supply,” Ukrenergo said in a statement on its official Telegram page, using Ukraine’s spelling for the plant.
Electricity is needed for cooling, ventilation and fire extinguishing systems at the closed site. In a statement on its Facebook page, Ukrenergo also said emergency diesel generators have been turned on but that fuel would last for only 48 hours.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba demanded a cease-fire with Russia to allow repairs on Wednesday.

“The only electrical grid supplying the Chornobyl NPP and all its nuclear facilities occupied by Russian army is damaged,” he tweeted. “I call on the international community to urgently demand Russia to cease fire and allow repair units to restore power supply.”
He warned that after reserve diesel generators run out of fuel, “cooling systems of the storage facility for spent nuclear fuel will stop, making radiation leaks imminent. Putin’s barbaric war puts entire Europe in danger.”

Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko said Wednesday, according to Reuters, that authorities do not know what the radiation levels are at the Chernobyl power plant and have no control over what is happening at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest nuclear plant, which was seized by Russian forces last week.

The International Atomic Energy Agency says it has lost contact with monitoring systems that transmit data on nuclear material from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant.


The U.N. nuclear watchdog’s director general “indicated that remote data transmission from safeguards monitoring systems installed at the Chornobyl NPP had been lost,” the IAEA said in a statement Tuesday.
“The Agency is looking into the status of safeguards monitoring systems in other locations in Ukraine and will provide further information soon,” it added.
Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted Wednesday that the IAEA had “unexpectedly lost connection” with the monitoring systems, calling it an “extremely dangerous situation.”

The Chernobyl nuclear power plant, then under the Soviet Union’s control, was the scene of a 1986 disaster when explosions and fires sent a huge radioactive cloud over parts of Europe and left contaminated soil and other fallout, which remains dangerous.


The catastrophe ranks as the world’s worst nuclear power plant accident.

Last month, the Russian Defense Ministry confirmed that its forces had taken control of the area near the power plant site as part of Russia’s wider invasion of Ukraine, sparking global alarm.

The IAEA this week reiterated an offer to both sides for the director general to travel to Chernobyl and other sites in Ukraine to help protect nuclear facilities amid the conflict.
The Chernobyl zone, one of the most radioactively contaminated places in the world, has remained closed since 1986, although a small number of people still live in the area — mostly elderly Ukrainians who refused to evacuate.

The building containing the exploded reactor from 1986 was covered in 2017 by an enormous shelter aimed at containing radiation still leaking from the accident. Robots inside the shelter work to dismantle the destroyed reactor and gather up radioactive waste. It’s expected to take until 2064 to finish safely dismantling the reactors.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said Ukrainian authorities have told the agency that it was “increasingly urgent” to rotate out the Chernobyl plant’s 210 technical employees and guards to ensure “safe management” amid “worsening” conditions. They have been working at the plant since Russian forces took control.
“I’m deeply concerned about the difficult and stressful situation facing staff at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant and the potential risks this entails for nuclear safety,” Grossi said. “I call on the forces in effective control of the site to urgently facilitate the safe rotation of personnel there.”


In nod to Russia, Ukraine says no longer insisting on NATO membership​


President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is no longer pressing for NATO membership for Ukraine, a delicate issue that was one of Russia's stated reasons for invading its pro-Western neighbor.

In another apparent nod aimed at placating Moscow, Zelensky said he is open to "compromise" on the status of two breakaway pro-Russian territories that President Vladimir Putin recognized as independent just before unleashing the invasion on February 24.

"I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago after we understood that ... NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine," Zelensky said in an interview aired Monday night on ABC News.

"The alliance is afraid of controversial things, and confrontation with Russia," the president added.

Referring to NATO membership, Zelensky said through an interpreter that he does not want to be president of a "country which is begging something on its knees."

Russia has said it does not want neighboring Ukraine to join NATO, the transatlantic alliance created at the start of the Cold War to protect Europe from the Soviet Union.

In more recent years the alliance has expanded further and further east to take in former Soviet bloc countries, infuriating the Kremlin.

Russia sees NATO enlargement as a threat, as it does the military posture of these new Western allies on its doorstep.
Shortly before he shocked the world by ordering the invasion of Ukraine, Putin recognized as independent two separatist pro-Russian "republics" in eastern Ukraine -- Donetsk and Lugansk -- that have been at war with Kyiv since 2014.

Putin now wants Ukraine, too, to recognize them as sovereign and independent.

When ABC asked him about this Russian demand, Zelensky said he was open to dialogue.

"I'm talking about security guarantees," he said.

He said these two regions "have not been recognized by anyone but Russia, these pseudo republics. But we can discuss and find the compromise on how these territories will live on."

"What is important to me is how the people in those territories are going to live who want to be part of Ukraine, who in Ukraine will say that they want to have them in," Zelensky said.

"So the question is more difficult than simply acknowledging them," the president said.

"This is another ultimatum and we are not prepared for ultimatums. What needs to be done is for President Putin to start talking, start the dialogue instead of living in the informational bubble without oxygen."

 

In nod to Russia, Ukraine says no longer insisting on NATO membership​


President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is no longer pressing for NATO membership for Ukraine, a delicate issue that was one of Russia's stated reasons for invading its pro-Western neighbor.
I guess the whole "Invade a potential NATO member to force them to not join NATO" really did work out
 
I guess the whole "Invade a potential NATO member to force them to not join NATO" really did work out
Problem is they have applied to join the EU, and the EU has a similar clause wherein they are required to resist the invasion of one of their own by all means at their disposal.

That would draw in NATO countries and would probably end up triggering article 5.
 
I guess the whole "Invade a potential NATO member to force them to not join NATO" really did work out
Even without any invasion, NATO would still rejected their application simply because of the dispute over Crimea and Donbass. So the only acceptable reason, so far, was Putin's last chance for his dream of Russian Empire, before Russia continues to decline over economic and population troubles

Also, interesting analysis
Clash between Poland and US over MiG-29s reveals tensions in escalating war (archive)

Analysis: the public spat over planes is a setback and the upshot of this mini-debacle is that Russia retains air superiority

The buck-passing between Poland and the US over the possible use of elderly MiG-29s to hit Russian forces inside Ukraine is one of the west’s few diplomatic failures of the past month. It also raises questions about how far European countries are prepared to escalate militarily before they believe they will touch a dangerous Russian tripwire.

The US and Europe have worked hard to keep their differences over sanctions and oil embargos to a public minimum, and tried to accommodate each other’s national interests.

So it was striking on Tuesday when first the Pentagon described a Polish offer to send plans to the US airbase in Mannheim as “untenable”, then the deputy US secretary of state said the US had not been consulted about the plan.

Part of the problem was that the Polish proposal was subtly but critically different to a scheme that had been previously discussed in private. Against the backdrop of highly charged diplomatic tensions, presentation matters.

In essence Poland said it would cooperate in strengthening the Ukrainian air force so long as this would be seen in Moscow as a US, Nato or EU scheme, but not a Polish one.

In its original US-conceived iteration, the proposal was a trilateral deal whereby Poland would hand over the MiGs to Ukrainian pilots to fly into their homeland, and the US would then provide some substitute planes. Boris Johnson, an enthusiast, described the plan as “rent a MiG”.

That proposal, arguably, was not qualitatively different to Nato members providing Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank missiles. In return, Poland would eventually fill the hole in its air force with 28 F-16s being provided by the US.

But under private pressure from the US, Poland felt the plan unduly exposed its citizens to Putin’s ire. So instead, in a game of diplomatic pass the parcel, Poland tweaked the proposals so the planes would be sent free of charge to the US airbase in Ramstein, Germany, rather than being flown out of Poland into Ukraine. The move would literally take Poland out of the line of Russia’s fire since the plan could be labelled as that of the US, Nato or the EU.

Poland also suggested other frontline Nato countries with MiG planes should match its plan, a proposal directed at Slovakia and Romania. If executed it would mean Ukraine had 70 extra planes at its disposal.

The Pentagon’s response – “it is simply not clear to us that there is a tangible justification for this” – was swift. Passing the parcel back, it said any decision to hand over planes ultimately rested with the Polish government, although it did not kill off the proposal altogether.

It is possible that Poland’s nationalist government launched its plan with the aim of relieving pressure from the US Congress and the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, knowing full well it would be rejected.

Either way the public spat is a setback. Over the weekend, the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, had said a plan involving planes was under active consideration.

The upshot after this mini-debacle is Russia retains air superiority. Ukrainian pilots who were being trained in Poland to fly the planes are now grounded with no machines with which to defend their country. An opportunity has been squandered.

The episode may have lessons for both sides. The possibility of making the MiG-29s available first appeared publicly on 27 February, when the EU made the unprecedented decision to provide military aid to a country outside the bloc. The first tranche of equipment for Ukraine is expected to amount to €500m (£417m), but up to €5bn is to be spent under the European Peace Initiative.

It was then that the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, said that aid for Kyiv would also include offensive weapons, including planes. At that point it became clear that the planes would either only be MIG-29 and Su-25, because Ukrainian pilots only have experience with these machines. Poland, it would seem, did not appreciate the issue being disclosed.

However, the country has emerged strengthened in another way from the past 24 hours.

The US has provided Poland with two Patriot defence missiles. Each battery consists of two firing platoons with two launchers. This means there will be 16 launchers in Poland. They can have either four or six missiles. The latest Pac-3 MSE missiles are capable of shooting down the Russian Iskander ballistic and manoeuvring missiles.

Unfortunately, they are also the anti-aircraft defence that Ukraine lacks. Nato, as its constitution requires, looks after its own.
 

War in Ukraine: Russia soon unable to pay its debts, warns agency​


Russia will soon be unable to pay its debts, according to a leading credit ratings agency.
Fitch Ratings downgraded its view of the country's government debt, warning a default is "imminent".
The move comes amid increasing international sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.
A credit rating is intended to help investors understand the level of risk they face in buying a country's debt - or bonds.
A low rating means the chances of not getting repaid is considered to be high - and so an investor will charge more to lend to that country.
This week, Moscow itself said its bond payments may be affected by sanctions.
The ratings cut - to C from B - is the second time this month Fitch has downgraded its view of Russia's ability to pay its debts.
"This rating action follows our downgrade... on 2 March, and developments since then have, in our view, further undermined Russia's willingness to service government debt," the agency said.
"The further ratcheting up of sanctions, and proposals that could limit trade in energy, increase the probability of a policy response by Russia that includes at least selective non-payment of its sovereign debt obligations," it added.
The announcement from Fitch came after the US and UK said they will ban Russian oil, as they step up the economic response to the invasion of Ukraine.
US President Joe Biden said the move targeted "the main artery of Russia's economy".
Meanwhile, the European Union said it will end its reliance on Russian gas.
As a major exporter of energy, the measures are aimed to hit Moscow's finances, although experts warn this is also likely to send the price of oil and natural gas higher on global markets.

On Sunday, Moscow told investors that it would continue to service its sovereign debt.
However, it warned that international sanctions imposed on its energy industry could limit its ability and willingness to meet its obligations.
"The actual possibility of making such payments to non-residents will depend on the limiting measures introduced by foreign states in relation to the Russian Federation," the finance ministry said in a statement.
In recent days, rival ratings agencies Moody's Investors Service and S&P Global Ratings have also slashed their assessments of Russian sovereign debt.
It means the country's sovereign debt is now considered to be below investment grade, or in "junk" territory, by three of the world's major ratings companies.
S&P said its move followed measures it believed would "substantially increase the risk of default".
Shane Oliver of investment management company AMP Capital believes a default on Russian debt was "effectively already occurring".
"It will only service it in much depreciated roubles anyway and foreign investors are offloading it at fire sale prices. Fortunately the global exposure to it is relatively low," he told the BBC.
The Russian rouble has also hit record lows as countries around the world imposed increasingly tough sanctions on the country.
Last month, Russia's central bank more than doubled its interest rate to 20% in an attempt to stop the value of its currency from sliding further.
Dozens of global brands - including McDonald's, Coca-Cola and Starbucks - have halted business in Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine.

 


Russian-US Citizen Charged by US Authorities for Acting Illegally as Russian Agent​


A dual Russian-U.S. citizen was charged on March 8 with allegedly acting as a Russian agent in the United States.


Elena Branson, 61, from at least 2011 worked with top Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, to promote Russian propaganda and influence U.S. policy, according to court documents filed in the Southern District of New York.


Branson “knowingly would and did act in the United States as an agent of a foreign government and foreign officials, namely, the Russian Federation, the government of Moscow, and officials of those foreign governments” without notifying U.S. authorities, a criminal complaint states.


Foreign agents are required by U.S. law to register with the U.S. government.


Despite not doing so, Branson moved to set up meetings between a Russian official and U.S. politicians, founded an organization headquartered in New York City named the Russian Center of New York (RCNY) that received funding from the Russian government, and lobbied officials in Hawaii to keep the name of a fort located in the state in part by arranging a trip for the officials to Moscow to meet with high-ranking Russian officials, according to the charging documents.



Additionally, Branson worked for years for the Russian Community Council of the USA, which receives funding from Russian government-run entities. In the role, she helped coordinate an “I Love Russia” campaign in the United States and organized youth forums that were aimed at promoting Russian culture and history to American youth.


And U.S. authorities also said Branson was part of a scheme to obtain fraudulent visas for Russian officials and their associates by giving them information about events RCNY was holding so they could use the details as a pretense to enter the United States.


“Branson engaged in a wide-ranging influence and lobbying scheme with funding and direction from the Russian government—all while deliberately leaving the American people in the dark,” Assistant Attorney General Matthew Olsen said in a statement, adding that the U.S. Department of Justice “will continue to expose these serious crimes and shine a light on foreign malign influence.”


Michael Driscoll, the FBI’s assistant director-in-charge, said the case “highlights the breadth of Russia’s relentless intelligence and malign influence activities targeting the United States” and vowed the bureau “will continue to be just as aggressive in uncovering and dismantling these Russian government networks who seek to harm our national security.”


It wasn’t clear whether Branson had retained a lawyer. She faces up to 35 years in prison. She is at large.


RCNY didn’t return an inquiry.


Branson spoke to the FBI agents in 2020 and during the interview said she’d never been asked by Russian officials to arrange meetings between U.S. politicians and Russian officials, according to the charging documents. Branson soon left the United States and went to Russia.


Branson said on a Russian government-backed broadcaster the following year that she had left the United States because she would likely be arrested.

US Shale Shortages to Limit Efforts to Replace Banned Russian Oil​


U.S. shale producers are unlikely to replace banned Russian oil imports due to a shortage of oilfield materials, equipment, and labor and a dwindling backlog of wells waiting to be completed, energy executives and analysts said on Tuesday.


President Joe Biden imposed an immediate ban on Tuesday on Russian oil imports in retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine, putting a spotlight on shale producers’ ability to boost output to make up for the loss of about 200,000 barrels per day of Russian crude typically imported by domestic refiners.


Shale has a short-cycle—able to add or reduce production relatively quickly—and in the past, producers have delivered explosive growth when prices allow.


In the Permian Basin, the top U.S. shale field, output jumped by 100,000 bpd nearly every month in 2018, according to U.S. government data.


But unlike 2018, there is a lack of oilfield materials, equipment, and labor, and the fastest way to increase shale production —completing already drilled but not yet completed wells—has declined.



Shale wells waiting to be completed and turned on have fallen sharply to 4,466, the lowest since January 2014 and nearly half of the highs touched mid 2020, data showed.


“Drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells represent latent potential, and that latent potential has shrunk,” said Stacey Morris, research director at Alerian, an energy index provider.


Analysts warned the time needed to drill and complete a new well can take six to eight months.


Even though the U.S. rig count has climbed for a record 19 months in a row, its growth has been slow and oil production is still far from pre-pandemic record levels as many companies focus more on returning money to investors rather than boosting output.

Today’s lack of materials, equipment, and labor is “not adequately recognized as a significant impediment for growth,” Occidental Petroleum Chief Executive Vicki Hollub said.


Oil producers which have not planned for volume growth this year cannot change and abandon commitments to allocate profits to debt reduction and shareholder returns, she said.


“Capital discipline today for oil companies is basically no (production) growth,” Hollub said.


Shale companies have set their production budgets for the year and, like Occidental, cannot revise them without investor approval, said Pablo Prudencio, a senior analyst at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie.


Ukraine Says 6 Humanitarian Corridors Agreed With Russia, Polish Jet Transfer in Limbo​


Ukrainian authorities have announced a temporary ceasefire along six evacuation routes for civilians in besieged or occupied cities, though a cloud of uncertainty hangs over the arrangement as prior efforts at securing the safety of humanitarian corridors have mostly failed, with Russia and Ukraine trading blame.


Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said in a video message on Telegram on Wednesday that Russian authorities had confirmed the ceasefire along six evacuation routes, and that word of the arrangement had been conveyed to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).


The ceasefire is to last from 9 a.m.–9 p.m. local time on March 9, Vereshchuk said. The humanitarian corridors lead out of Sumy in the northeast, Mariupol on the Azov Sea coast, Enerhodar in the south, Volnovakha in the southeast, Izyum in the east, and several towns around the capital Kyiv, she said.


Prior ceasefire efforts around humanitarian corridors have mostly been unsuccessful, with only one evacuation route open out of Sumy. Around 5,000 people were evacuated out of Sumy on Tuesday.


The head of the ICRS said Wednesday he hopes the current thrust to establish humanitarian corridors will be successful after earlier efforts bore little fruit.

Peter Maurer, president of the ICRC, told Germany’s Deutschlandfunk radio on Wednesday that his organization has been working for days to bring the warring parties together and encourage them to hold detailed military-to-military talks on enabling civilians to flee.


Maurer said it’s important that agreements succeed “because the military units stand close to each other and the smallest uncertainty, as we have seen in recent days, leads instantly to exchanges of fire, and that makes the escape routes impossible.”


A series of local ceasefires to let civilians evacuate leave have collapsed since efforts began on Saturday to get them operating safely.

Former NATO Gen. Egon Ramms told German media outlet ARD that, while he hopes the ceasefires would hold, a prerequisite is for both sides to cease hostilities.


Ramms said that experience with ceasefires shows “that often both sides are not equally informed” and so one side unwittingly continues to fight.


“Then the other side fires back. And then such a humanitarian corridor has failed accordingly, both for aid and for people who want to flee,” he told the outlet.


More than 2 million people have fled Ukraine since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered what he described as a “special military operation” to disarm its neighbor and dislodge leaders it calls “neo-Nazis.”


Kyiv and its Western allies dismiss that as a groundless pretext for an unprovoked war of aggression against a sovereign and democratic nation.

Meanwhile, as hostilities entered their 14th day on Wednesday, the fate of a much-discussed potential transfer of Polish fighter jets to Ukraine remained in limbo.


Poland, which is wary of being seen as engaging in the conflict, has offered to transfer its fleet of MiG-29s to U.S. custody at a U.S./NATO base in Germany for further disposition by the United States. But the Pentagon threw cold water on the proposal, with Department of Defense spokesperson John Kirby describing it as untenable.


“The prospect of fighter jets ‘at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America’ departing from a U.S./NATO base in Germany to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance,” Kirby said in a statement.


“It is simply not clear to us that there is a substantive rationale for it. We will continue to consult with Poland and our other NATO allies about this issue and the difficult logistical challenges it presents, but we do not believe Poland’s proposal is a tenable one,” he added.

Kirby added that the decision whether to transfer the MiGs to Ukraine was up to the Polish government.


Polish authorities, however, want the jet transfer to be done under the auspices of NATO and to have the unanimous backing of all the allies.


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday called for a faster resolution of the uncertainty surrounding the transfer of the MiGs.


Zelensky described the hold-up as one of “logistics” and a “technical issue,” while calling for it to be resolved “immediately.”


“We are at war! This is not ping pong! It’s about human lives! We once again ask you to resolve this quickly, send us the aircraft,” he said in a video message on Wednesday.


Putin Signs Law on Using Rainy-Day Fund to Buy OFZ Bonds, Stocks—RIA​


Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has signed a law on using the country’s rainy-day National Wealth Fund to buy OFZ government bonds and stocks, the RIA news agency reported on Wednesday.


Putin also signed a series of laws enabling a new “capital amnesty” designed to encourage people to return money or financial instruments to Russia without facing tax or other penalties, RIA reported.

Demand for VPNs Surge in Russia to Bypass Countrywide Internet, News Blockade​


Russians are increasingly turning to tools such as VPNs to bypass the internet blockade within the country in the wake of the Kremlin’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine and its crackdown on a number of social media platforms.


VPNs, also known as virtual private networks, allow users to change the location from which they are accessing the internet, meaning they can evade location-based restrictions. It also creates an encrypted tunnel for users’ data, making browsing more private.


Amid the Russian government’s crackdown on a number of social media services and news outlets, more and more Russians are turning to VPNs so that they can continue to stay connected with the outside world and get information from sources that don’t just consist of state-owned news outlets.


According to Top10VPN.com, which live tracks spikes in the demand for VPN around the world, the desire for VPNs surged by 1,092 percent in Russia on March 5, exactly one day after Russia’s communications agency Roskomnadzor blocked access to Facebook.


A statement from the agency posted online said Facebook has engaged in “26 cases of discrimination against Russian media and information resources.”



Demand for VPN services also surged 1,033 percent higher than the daily average over the week prior to the invasion, data from Top10VPN.com shows, and such demand was still slightly higher as of March 5, where it peaked at 1,092 percent above the average.


As of March 7, Russians still had a high interest in VPNs, with figures 850 percent higher than the pre-invasion baseline, while VPN providers Surfshark and ExpressVPN have both said they have experienced an increase in Russian’s purchasing or looking to purchase VPNs.


Top10VPN.com reports that Russia’s government has blocked over 200 news and financial sites, including both foreign and local ones since its military forces invaded Ukraine.


They include Radio Free Europe, BBC News, Deutsche Welle, and Voice of America Russian-language sites, as well as several Russian TV and radio stations, including TV Rain and Echo of Moscow, among others.


Russian officials have accused multiple news outlets and websites of spreading disinformation regarding its invasion of Ukraine, as opposed to sticking with President Vladimir Putin’s so-called narrative that it is actually a “special military operation.”


On Friday, President Vladimir Putin signed a law that will criminalize anyone sharing “deliberately false information about the actions of Russian military personnel in Ukraine.”


Under the new law, “unofficial” reporting on the invasion is a crime that is punishable by up to 15 years in prison.


Specifically, it will punish those who knowingly “distort the purpose, role, and tasks of the Russian Armed Forces, as well as other units during special military and other operations,” according to Vasily Piskarev, head of the Duma’s Security and Anti-Corruption Committee in a post that has since been deleted, but that is still available on the web archive.


Elsewhere, demand for VPNs in Ukraine also climbed 609 percent higher than before the invasion began, Top10VPN.com data shows.


On the weekend of Feb. 26–27, VPN demand skyrocketed and was 544 percent higher than the daily average in the first half of the month on Feb. 28.


Demand continued to rise over the week, and on March 2 peaked at 600 percent higher than before the war started, while continuing to increase.


Ukraine Aid Package Totals $14 billion, McConnell Says​


Congress’s aid package for Ukraine and its Eastern European allies now stands at $14 billion, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has said.


McConnell announced the deal on Tuesday, telling reporters that the figure would include loan guarantees to help NATO allies including Poland purchase U.S. aircraft to replace warplanes transferred to Ukraine.


“Where we have ended up is $14 billion,” McConnell said.


Speaking shortly after McConnell, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), said the bill would include “a little less” than $14 billion and a little more than $12 billion.


The spending will be part of a $1.5 trillion government-wide spending bill that lawmakers hope to vote on this week, that will fund the federal government for the full fiscal year and also provide further aid to Ukraine.



The figure is higher than the sum initially requested by the Biden administration, $6.5 million, and the $10 billion figure in the White House’s formal request to Congress.


“It needs to be passed and it needs to be passed quickly,” McConnell told reporters, criticizing the speed at which the aid package has moved along.


”It’s been like pulling teeth to get out of House Democrats what the Ukrainians obviously need at this particular time,” McConnell said. “We’ve been slow—much too slow. But the package, I gather, will be coming over from the House … I think it’s an important step.


Democrats and Republicans rallied solidly behind Ukraine, with Russia’s attack devastating parts of the country and prompting Europe’s worst refugee crisis since World War II.

Republicans however accused President Joe Biden of moving too slowly to help Ukraine and NATO nations assisting it, and to impose sanctions against Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin. Democrats say time was needed to bring along European allies that rely heavily on Russian energy sources.


Biden on Feb. 26 also approved sending $350 million in weapons to Ukraine—two days after Putin launched a full-scale invasion against the country. The U.S. State Department sent hardware including Javelin anti-tank weapons, anti-aircraft systems, ammunition, and body armor.


House leaders were hoping that the chamber could approve the legislation on Wednesday, sending it to the Senate. Debate there could last days.


Top House Democrats were warning their members they might have to unexpectedly return to Washington on Friday night from the party’s political retreat in Philadelphia to approve the package or pass yet another short-term bill preventing a federal shutdown. Temporary financing for federal agencies expires at the end of the day Friday.

Seizing the Property of Russian Oligarchs: Guilt by Association?​


Commentary


The Western world is united in its response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Western countries, including the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom, have imposed a bevy of sanctions expected to hurt the Russian economy.


One such sanction that lately received a great deal of media coverage is the seizure of the assets of Russian oligarchs held in the West. These include luxury villas, yachts, and bank accounts.


In this context, the word “oligarch” is mainly used pejoratively. The word has been in use since the early 1600s and is based on the Greek language but is typically reserved to describe a rich Russian business billionaire.


The seizure of assets of Russian oligarchs is regarded as a justifiable expression of revenge that potentially may shorten the war in Ukraine. However, a closer look at these sanctions suggests that, often, it is grounded in a doubtful moral principle, namely that oligarchs are guilty by association with the Putin regime.



As is well-known, Russian billionaires have invested heavily in assets in the West, especially after the collapse of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). While most of these assets are in the United States and the European Union, Russian billionaires have also heavily invested in Australia and other countries.


The assets of these billionaires in these jurisdictions are subject to seizure by the local authorities following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.


For example, Igor Sechins’s yacht was seized in France, and Alisher Usmanov’s superyacht, Dilbar, reportedly the largest motor yacht in the world, was taken by German authorities.

The Australian government, too, has announced the seizure of valuable property of eight oligarchs who have close ties with Russian banks, Russia’s defence and resources industries, or are deemed to be part of Putin’s inner circle.

How the Australian government identifies these individuals whose property will be seized is a bit of a mystery, but it is fair to assume that their close relationship with the Putin regime makes them an easy target for confiscating their property.

These “oligarchs” are undoubtedly all wealthy businesspeople with ties to Putin’s regime and hence wield considerable political power.

It is, however, an altogether different issue as to whether they should be held personally responsible for the calamitous invasion of Ukraine.

The seizing of property of Russian oligarchs appears to be overwhelmingly approved by most people because nowhere have I read any commentary that questions the appropriateness of this action. Nevertheless, the seizure of property is a very confrontational and controversial strategic act for a variety of reasons.

In selecting the oligarchs whose assets will be seized, governments should ideally establish a close connection between them and the current Russian regime. In addition, in considering this connection, it is necessary to gauge their support for the invasion and their direct, indirect, or even remote involvement in it.

Simply being an acquaintance of Vladimir Putin is neither a satisfactory nor a sufficient reason for depriving them of their property, provided it has been legally acquired. This is because the act of seizure implies that they are guilty by association, even if they have not done anything to facilitate, or to support, the Kremlin’s catastrophic decision to invade Ukraine.

The reality is that there are oligarchs who oppose the invasion and are prepared to use their resources to help the victims of Putin’s war of aggression. In such a case, a seizure of their property would appear to be unwarranted.

For example, Roman Abramovich, the flamboyant owner of the Chelsea Football Club in London, has indicated that he will sell the club and use the net proceeds, rumoured to be around five billion dollars, to alleviate the plight of Ukrainians.

A blanket decision to seize the assets of oligarchs thus involves the application of a discredited strategy that allocates blame simply on the ground of a person’s assumed or perceived association with evil warmongers.


With regards to Ukraine, this strategy means that if a rich billionaire is an acquaintance of Vladimir Putin, then that fact, by itself, will justify the taking of their property.


The elevation of this strategy to a principle of political action is disturbing because it breaks the link between a person’s behaviour and punishment. Thus, even though oligarchs may themselves not in any way have been involved in the planning of the invasion, they are deemed to be guilty by association.


From a moral point of view, it is necessary and appropriate to establish a close link between their support for, or finance of, the invasion and the strategy of seizing their property.


Even if oligarchs did support Putin’s action, the seizure of property may still be a controversial sanction. This is because there are legal rules that protect the right to own property and prevent its confiscation without compensation.

By way of example, the Basic Law of Germany protects the right to property: “Property … shall be guaranteed” and “Expropriation shall only be permissible for the public good.” And the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights stipulates that “Everyone has the right to own property alone as well as in association with others.”


Over time, the strategy of guilt by association is thus disrespectful of the “rule of law.” Yet, as seizures of property of Russian businesspeople are happening with undiminished zeal in the West, the long-term consequences of this practice are not seriously considered.


In addition, the “rule of law” also requires that only the guilty be punished; this means that there must be a clear link between the oligarchs’ support for the invasion and occupation of Ukraine and the seizure of their assets.


The practice of allocating guilt by association should therefore be discontinued. A proper investigation into the personal guilt of the oligarchs should determine whether their property should be seized.

 
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