De-banking is the most idiotic decision the collective West has made. As a Russian, now I can only pay for my VPN/VPS with crypto (and not all of them even accept crypto), stolen credit card that I bought on darknet with crypto, or a middleman who i must entrust with my credentials and crypto. And if I don't have VPN/VPS, I can't access most of globohomo (or even neutral) news outlets, so I'll only feed on
information propaganda that my government provides. Not the best way to rile the population up against Putin, if you ask me.
I see a lot of NPCs on Twitter who think that private companies leaving will somehow lead people to overthrow the government. I've extensively studied history of revolutions and uprisings, successful and not, I've read works by Lenin, Trotsky, various
guerrilleros, even fucking SIEGE.
Revolt starts with the Organization.
- The Organization provides support structure for revolutionaries, both material and informational. Let's say we're at peaceful stage and are organizing a protest. In modern Russia this can easily get you arrested, your electronics confiscated, your house searched. If you're a known shit stirrer, pigs will try to arrest you preemptively so you're gonna need safehouse. If you're under arrest, you cant work and earn money. If your electronics are confiscated, you're gonna need the replacement. If there's no Organization, it's all risk and no reward, therefore no protests.
- The people who will be ready to kill and die for the cause tend not to have "good optics". Literally every revolution was fought by "fools, frauds and firebrands" and led by hideous people like Trotsky. Bleeding heart liberals that you're seeing on streets of Russian cities won't cut it. At best, they'll comprise "legal" parts of the Organization (various NCOs and support groups) or radicalize further. Legals are important for buliding the support structure, but without the Minecraft crew they're fucking toothless. Vice versa, Minecrafters alone would be ineffective without their legal counterparts.
So, what does it mean for the West? If you want regime change, be ready to get your hands dirty by supporting literal psychopaths as well, not just dangerhair zoomer sheep.
- It takes a lot of time and effort to build the Organization. You need to recruit a lot of brilliant minds to be ideologues, leaders and officers. Western fuckers have been ignoring thousands of radicals (skinheads, antifa, commies, various separatists, even lolberts) fleeing from Russia over last two decades. No protection, no resources, no media support. No retaliation for political prosecutions in Russia. These people were left alone, slowly assimilating and losing the flame that burned inside them. And now, when "the street" is sterilized, you expect someone to "rise up"? The only group that got some attention from the West was liberal democrats. And as the name suggests, these guys aren't good at revolting.
- And now, to the best part. Let's assume the Organization(s) are formed organically. What makes you think they'll be aligned with the West? Last time when Russian Revolution was left to it's own devices, fucking Bolsheviks have won. During late 90s, Western countries were helping Russia precisely to prevent communist or "red fascist" takeover. Same goes for coup' d'etat by Russian elites. Yes, there's a chance that oligarchs would succeed, but what if the power falls into hands of military, secret police or regional elites?
The general population is rapidly turning against the West. Of course, it's fueled by state propaganda, but also by West's behavior. Cutting the technological and cultural ties with Russian population won't make them turn on Putin, people will see the West have abandoned them and either fall into Putin's hands ("after all, all his talk about Russophobic West was true!") or will grow strong sense of resentment towards West and eventually install revanchist regime.
TL;DR It's delusional to think that people are going to rise up against Putin because of sanctions. And even if they do, the West is not gonna like the result.