Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

How well is the war this going for Russia?

  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Blyatskrieg

    Votes: 249 10.6%
  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐ I ain't afraid of no Ghost of Kiev

    Votes: 278 11.8%
  • ⭐⭐⭐ Competent attack with some upsets

    Votes: 796 33.7%
  • ⭐⭐ Stalemate

    Votes: 659 27.9%
  • ⭐ Ukraine takes back Crimea 2022

    Votes: 378 16.0%

  • Total voters
    2,360
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Russian EOD is decently competent, they gained a lot of experience in Syria and even issue real deal no shit Exoskeletons (that actually work because they are not powered)

To sperg about Russian Exoskeletons a bit, for whatever reason they are faring much better at developing them than us Americans are, they are also fucking cheap ($3500-4500 IIRC per unit).
Now lets hope the images do not fuck upView attachment 3065394View attachment 3065396View attachment 3065403
I mean is it really surprising? the motherfuckers probably needed to remove all the mines the soviets left all over the fucking borders and beyond, makes sense they would have high demand for EOD
 
Buhanka memes in the middle of global meltdown look mental.
There is just something about a regular civilian looking scooby doo van being in operations to blow some shit up.

Like every other equipment makes sense to be used in a war, but the kind of van used by pot smoking hippies is just like some weird stuff.

Its like the scene from Apocalypse Now where is this a deleted scene of the boat passing by boats only filled with monkies.
 
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Nukes (in particular) M.A.D was a theory in the 1970's, I would find it difficult to believe that countries worldwide were not trying to come up with strategies against it. Does not mean it isn't the be all end all but could mean that nations have have developed effective ways of defending against 1970's tech. The Nuclear subs and Aircraft driven delivery systems may be more problematic.
The US has been pouring resources into developing countermeasures against nukes but current capabilities aren't enough to offer any meaningful protection.

The engineering problem has best been summed up as "trying to block a bullet, using another bullet." While ICBMs are 1970s technology, they take roughly 30 minutes to reach their target from launch. The Reentry Vehicles travel at hypersonic velocity and can very cheaply/easily be loaded with chaff (e.g. fucking metal plates cheap/easy) that give off similar radar signatures during the critical minutes that a Reentry Vehicle can be shot down. This problem is an order of magnitude more difficult to deal with than the drones that are currently giving Russian and Saudi AA hell.

The silver lining is that the Russian nuclear arsenal has been known for years to have shit reliability (e.g. they drive out to a silos to discover it's completely flooded - where as a water leak in a US silo will be discovered within a week as we take Nuclear Surety very seriously). In theory, they compensate for worse reliability and accuracy with higher warhead yields but judging from their performance in the Ukraine, a significant number of their reentry vehicles will fail to hit their targets.

That being said, we still need to take the threat seriously. A single High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (e.g. a single Nuke detonated in the upper atmosphere) is enough to knock out the entire electrical grid of the United States. This sort of attack is virtually unstoppable.
EMP_mechanism.png

This means every bank account, stock exchange, crypo wallet, website, and any appliance plugged into the electrical grid gets immediately fried. We're talking trillions of dollars in damage if even one of their nukes gets off a national EMP. The only thing that's been preventing nuclear war for nearly a century is mutually assured destruction. Our nukes have massive Electoral Surge Arrestors that can withstand the pulse that will spread throughout the power grid and massive diesel generators and batteries that will give them enough power to give Russia the exact same treatment if they strike first.
 
Not sure, just wanted to share common opinions I'm hearing in NZ. It's like an alternate reality divorced from rational thought when I engage people in conversation about this. Putin is literally Hitler at this point here. I'm going to shoot myself if I hear democracy one more time. A friend of mine I was talking with just now said America should have bombed Russia as soon as they sent a tank across the border. Wtf.

For the record, I understand Putin's reasoning and I don't blame him for being pissed, I really feel for all of the civilians displaced from this, but ultimately Ukraine had a duty to be neutral.
Well, NATO recently sent some assets to the Suwalki Gap so any way of connecting with Kaliningrad via Belarus is out of the question. Plus the Lithuanians and Polish would wreck them as well. NATO would have to see if Russia sent any BTG's to Grodno, Belarus but given that everything's heightened, not going to happen. They would have to drive 40 or so miles through a thick forested swampland and then an open plain with no chance of hiding. And then they would have to hold that corridor somehow with the city of Suwalki nearby. And air assets from Southwest Poland and Estonia would respond in heavy force. NATO wouldn't even have to take Kaliningrad, just deny access to it. Also they have a significant number of F-35A's in the region.

Cliff's note: You're gonna have a bad time, Russia.
 
Russian EOD is decently competent, they gained a lot of experience in Syria and even issue real deal no shit Exoskeletons (that actually work because they are not powered)

To sperg about Russian Exoskeletons a bit, for whatever reason they are faring much better at developing them than us Americans are, they are also fucking cheap ($3500-4500 IIRC per unit).
Now lets hope the images do not fuck upView attachment 3065394View attachment 3065396View attachment 3065403
Other then routing convoys I don't see mines being particularly useful, NLAWS and Javelins are more effective and safe. The fact that the west has chosen to not use them in large quantities is probably bad news for the Russians.
 
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The US has been pouring resources into developing countermeasures against nukes but current capabilities aren't enough to offer any meaningful protection.

The engineering problem has best been summed up as "trying to block a bullet, using another bullet." While ICBMs are 1970s technology, they take roughly 30 minutes to reach their target from launch. The Reentry Vehicles travel at hypersonic velocity and can very cheaply/easily be loaded with chaff (e.g. fucking metal plates cheap/easy) that give off similar radar signatures during the critical minutes that a Reentry Vehicle can be shot down. This problem is an order of magnitude more difficult to deal with than the drones that are currently giving Russian and Saudi AA hell.

The silver lining is that the Russian nuclear arsenal has been known for years to have shit reliability (e.g. they drive out to a silos to discover it's completely flooded - where as a water leak in a US silo will be discovered within a week as we take Nuclear Surety very seriously). In theory, they compensate for worse reliability and accuracy with higher warhead yields but judging from their performance in the Ukraine, a significant number of their reentry vehicles will fail to hit their targets.

That being said, we still need to take the threat seriously. A single High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (e.g. a single Nuke detonated in the upper atmosphere) is enough to knock out the entire electrical grid of the United States. This sort of attack is virtually unstoppable.
View attachment 3065377

This means every bank account, stock exchange, crypo wallet, website, and any appliance plugged into the electrical grid gets immediately fried. We're talking trillions of dollars in damage if even one of their nukes gets off a national EMP. The only thing that's been preventing nuclear war for nearly a century is mutually assured destruction. Our nukes have massive Electoral Surge Arrestors that can withstand the pulse that will spread throughout the power grid and massive diesel generators and batteries that will give them enough power to give Russia the exact same treatment if they strike first.
Good. I can't wait to finally return to monke
 
I keep seeing posts around the internet about the seizure of yachts belonging to (rich therefore totes evol) Russian oligarchs and it makes part of my brain itch and toss up warnings about a lack of due process.
Then I remember that the real world does not work like civics textbooks would have us believe it does.
 
I keep seeing posts around the internet about the seizure of yachts belonging to (rich therefore totes evol) Russian oligarchs and it makes part of my brain itch and toss up warnings about a lack of due process.
Then I remember that the real world does not work like civics textbooks would have us believe it does.
What they're doing to the Russians they want to do to you.
 
Funny you should mention that. Facebook is slackening its moderation standards to allow for calling for the death of Russian soldiers (and Putin). In response, Russian prosecutor general's office is calling to designate the entire META group as an extremist organiszation. Then Meta said Russia’s crackdown on its service is "retaliation for the company’s fact-checking of content published by Russian state media".

How is this anything other than a global psychosis?
It's always been this bad. Calling a tranny-spade a spade? Permaban for committing a heinous hate crime. Wishing for the pets and children of honking truckers to get tortured? Not a problem. Asking about cops letting people in on January 6th? That's spreading misinformation, we don't allow that sort of talk around here! Someone got doxed because they voted for Trump? Spread the news, the world must know (and react "accordingly")!

It's not often that whole nations get the treatment, but is it really surprising?
 
Since both Russia and Ukraine have started to take foreign fighters which side do you all think will have better foreign volunteer troops? The Russians are apparently getting most of the people from the Middle East while I imagine Ukraine has more ex-soldiers from countries in the West.

Ukraine since their ground force wasn't really in good shape to begin with, so they'll definitely ask for good foreign fighters, like ex-military (or PMCs) from the US or Britain. Due to their propaganda machine, I have no doubt that they'll attract a lot of them to their country like moths to a light
 
Since both Russia and Ukraine have started to take foreign fighters which side do you all think will have better foreign volunteer troops? The Russians are apparently getting most of the people from the Middle East while I imagine Ukraine has more ex-soldiers from countries in the West.
Considering the volunteers for the Ukraine are mostly fake and those that aren't are from reddit, while Russia is getting people who fought and raped their way through the middle east + Chechnya, I'll let you take a guess as to which group will fair better.
 
In the book Seeing Like a State, by James C. Scott, he coined the term Métis to describe insight gained from practical experience. The Russian military may have firepower, but it seems that they lack insight into what it actually takes to field a modern military. All of that equipment is completely useless without tactical knowledge and willpower.

After seeing that video of that Russian armored column ambushed at very close range by Ukrainians with rockets, I was surprised to see their response. They panicked, fleeing to the opposite side of the road. They should have counter-assaulted immediately, especially considering how close their attackers were. The Ukrainian anti-tank soldier units were positioned less than a hundred meters off the side of the road. Not on an elevation, or anything. They had no real cover, either. They would have been extremely vulnerable to suppressive fire. Sometimes, in the chaos of an ambush, it's difficult to tell where the rockets are coming from.

Real rockets are nothing like in video games. Your typical video game rocket launcher fires a glowing orb that travels about 30 meters per second. You can almost outrun it on foot. A real RPG-7 or RPG-29 round is extremely fast. They start off at about 100 meters per second and quickly accelerate to the same velocity as a 9mm handgun bullet.

At short range, fire and impact are simultaneous, as this Afghan dude demonstrates:


They have a bit of a ballistic arc, but they can be used to hit point targets a few hundred meters away, and area targets easily 800 meters away, but you have to elevate them a bit. I once made a personal mod for S.T.A.L.K.E.R. that made the RPG realistic. Tweaked a few projectile speed/drop variables and replaced the sound effects with real RPG sounds I got off YouTube vids. It made RPG-wielding enemies absolutely terrifying.

Anyway, the most important thing in an ambush is quickly identifying the direction that enemy fire is coming from and suppressing with all your might. There were some fancy pieces of gear that first started showing up a couple decades ago. Acoustic gunfire locators.

1024px-Boomerang_3_Gunfire_Acoustic_Detection_System_MOD_45153048.jpg

Basically a mast with a bunch of microphones to figure out the direction enemy fire was coming from and counter ambushes. IIRC, they were never really deployed in significant numbers, though.

T-72s are pretty antiquated and outmatched by modern anti-armor weapons. You know, the T-72 is only like 41 to 44 tons, depending on the variant. It does not have anything like the armor on the Abrams. Even with ERA, the roof is still vulnerable to top-attack missiles like Javelin or Bill 2.

During the first Desert Storm, Iraqi T-72s had their shit absolutely pushed in by Abrams tanks.


I haven't even seen a hint of Russia's supposed latest tech. No Armata tanks. Nothing. They're using truly ancient hardware. Not only that, apparently, high-ranking Russian officers are being killed one after another because they aren't using battlefield encryption to mask their communications at all.

At first, I thought Russia would steamroll Kiev in a matter of a couple days or so, but it seems like they're getting bogged down. It's so difficult to tell exactly what the hell is going on over there, because both sides are lying and bolstering their respective causes with propaganda. All we know for certain is that the Russian encirclement and siege of key Ukrainian cities is continuing, however, Russia seem to be stalling unexpectedly. With the humanitarian corridors, they may be giving civilians a chance to evacuate, to avoid a bloodbath.

Everything about all of this is very odd. I don't think we'll have accurate casualty figures for either side for quite some time. I can't really offer any analysis because the signal-to-noise ratio here is so damn poor. It's all just noise right now.
 
while I imagine Ukraine has more ex-soldiers from countries in the West.
I'm willing to bet there's at the very least 5,000 military volunteers in Ukraine who just happened to complete their tour of duty or retire from the military from various NATO countries. This is a proxy war, and if you don't think a bunch of NATO countries have unofficial operators in combat in Ukraine, I got a bridge to sell you.
 
I'm willing to bet there's at the very least 5,000 military volunteers in Ukraine who just happened to complete their tour of duty or retire from the military from various NATO countries. This is a proxy war, and if you don't think a bunch of NATO countries have unofficial operators in combat in Ukraine, I got a bridge to sell you.
Somebody has to be teaching all these ad-hoc units of random locals how to operate that brand new western tech.
 
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