War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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The Russians moved away from developing stuff like the Arata and T-90s in favour of upgrade programs to the literal acres worth of T-72 they already had
The T-90 is a third-generation Russian main battle tank. The T-72BU was officially accepted into service in 1992 by the Russian Ministry of Defence and simultaneously renamed as the T-90 for marketing and propaganda purposes aimed at distancing the new type from existing T-72 variants. The T-90 uses a 125 mm 2A46 smoothbore main gun, the 1A45T fire-control system, an upgraded engine, and gunner's thermal sight. Standard protective measures include a blend of steel and composite armour, smoke grenade dischargers, Kontakt-5 explosive-reactive armour and the Shtora infrared ATGM jamming system.
IIRC the only actual new MBT design they've rolled out since the fall is the T-14, but that's not atypical since even the USA has resorted to just upgrading the vast fleets of M1 Abrams it has in stock, the lack of a peer or near-peer threat making brand new designs cost-ineffective. There has been a much greater emphasis on air, but that's because they're a nice low-manpower way to project force in third-world and second-world crapholes, and with fewer risks to personnel. Besides, its not like we're expecting to fight the Chinese in a land war, so it doesn't matter if the latest knock-off is a threat since we should hopefully just plan on blockading and starving them into submission.

And yeah, I've read up on what little info has come out of Ukraine, and their stuff is surprisingly cheap and effective. They've been looking to get into the export market for a while, and after the war it looks like they're going to have no shortage of customers. "Battle-proven" is a hell of a bullet point when it comes to APC brochures. While they won't be joining NATO to avoid pissing the bear off (again), they will almost certainly get a lot of Western tech and R&D investment to the point they will be in all but name, so I expect they'll have Germany and France to vouch for their joint programs as well.
 
IIRC the only actual new MBT design they've rolled out since the fall is the T-14, but that's not atypical since even the USA has resorted to just upgrading the vast fleets of M1 Abrams it has in stock, the lack of a peer or near-peer threat making brand new designs cost-ineffective. There has been a much greater emphasis on air, but that's because they're a nice low-manpower way to project force in third-world and second-world crapholes, and with fewer risks to personnel. Besides, its not like we're expecting to fight the Chinese in a land war, so it doesn't matter if the latest knock-off is a threat since we should hopefully just plan on blockading and starving them into submission.
Thing with tanks is, while they aren't obsolete, they are not what they were. They need lots of support to be used effectively, and their armour is becoming increasingly ineffective whilst being required to be more complex and expensive. I do wonder if Russian tanks are just lacklustre, or if this is the case for all tanks, given that in 2003 a Challenger 2 was hit with 70 RPGs and the crew survived...

Point is, having these really expensive, top of the line tanks isn't economical when someone who has done a week of training on a Javelin can knock them out from 2 miles away.
And yeah, I've read up on what little info has come out of Ukraine, and their stuff is surprisingly cheap and effective. They've been looking to get into the export market for a while, and after the war it looks like they're going to have no shortage of customers. "Battle-proven" is a hell of a bullet point when it comes to APC brochures. While they won't be joining NATO to avoid pissing the bear off (again), they will almost certainly get a lot of Western tech and R&D investment to the point they will be in all but name, so I expect they'll have Germany and France to vouch for their joint programs as well.
Ukraine joining NATO is going to depend on how this war ends. Ukraine wanted to join for years, they were prevented because entry requirements need a member to have no ongoing war prior to joining for obvious reasons. The current members don't want to be dragged in. If they did, Russia wouldn't bother them after this debacle.
 
This is incorrect, much of what the Russians have lost has been the best they can put on the battlefield, T-72B3 obr. 2016, T-80UB and T-80UBM along with T-90As. Artillery we have seen Msta S, Iskander being employed along side systems, same for IFVs and Aircraft, they have lost signignact numbers of BMP-3s, BMD-3&4s BTR-82s etc. Theur aircraft losses included a painfully large number of KA-52 Alligators, several SU-34 Fullbacks along with plenty of Hinds, Hips, Flankers and Frogfoots. Not to mention the large numbers if modern MRAPs they have lost to light anti tank weapons.
oh they certainly have been using their latest toys too, I am just surprised they needed to supplement that with the old, not upgraded pew-pew. And it's not just that they started with the best and later started sending the old stuff, from the very first days there were vids of burned out 70's and 80's era not-upgraded vehicles, tanks without even old ERA
not to mention stuff like this:


1647163008082.png

they also found an armored train somewhere and put it to service in Ukraine, like it was 1920's again (I really want to know if it was sitting in some mil base as equipment still in use, or if they had to take it out of some musem)
1647163201240.png
 
Thing with tanks is, while they aren't obsolete, they are not what they were. They need lots of support to be used effectively, and their armour is becoming increasingly ineffective whilst being required to be more complex and expensive. I do wonder if Russian tanks are just lacklustre, or if this is the case for all tanks, given that in 2003 a Challenger 2 was hit with 70 RPGs and the crew survived...

Point is, having these really expensive, top of the line tanks isn't economical when someone who has done a week of training on a Javelin can knock them out from 2 miles away.
Well, the entire point of a tank is to be a armored cannon on treads. No matter how good it is at destroying armor, the ability to provide effective infantry support has been baked into their design since day 1. Remove tanks and you're just going to get trench warfare again, since without something that can provide a mailed fist to the face of defenders any sort of breakthrough will be impossible without the massive cost in lives WW1 had. Doesn't mean they're not economical, just that its a bad idea to let dug-in defenders have an open sightline on your advance. There's a reason pre-assault barrages of both explosive and smoke rounds are employed, and its because anything that attempts to advance in the open against prepared defenders is just waiting to die. Just ask General George Edward Pickett of the Confederate States of America how well his assault worked out for him and his men.

I'll give you a spoiler: Thousands of his soldiers hunkered down in a tiny little sunken roadway 300 yards from the Union lines because it was either that or get blown to pieces by Union gunners, the numbered of captured Confederates that day outnumbering the dead and wounded.

As to NATO, they've recently cooled on that, likely because of further risk of inflamed tensions. Ukraine has had a good thing going of neutrality-favoring-the-West, and I don't think they'll want to permanently close the door on anything Russian in a way that joining NATO would.
 
oh they certainly have been using their latest toys too, I am just surprised they needed to supplement that with the old, not upgraded pew-pew. And it's not just that they started with the best and later started sending the old stuff, from the very first days there were vids of burned out 70's and 80's era not-upgraded vehicles, tanks without even old ERA
not to mention stuff like this:


View attachment 3068393

they also found an armored train somewhere and put it to service in Ukraine, like it was 1920's again (I really want to know if it was sitting in some mil base as equipment still in use, or if they had to take it out of some musem)
View attachment 3068397
Armored trains actually make sense because Russia and most of their former imperial/Soviet sphere of influence was obsessed with railways as a relatively quick and effective method of transportation. Most of Russia's wars relied on them being able to get large amounts of shit to the front line as quickly as possible so armored trains are invaluable in that regard and also why Russia still hasn't retired them when everyone else has moved on.
 
Needless to say, on the subject on which company is going to profit from this, Bayraktar just won big. Also those who manufactures all the anti-tank and MANPADS used by Ukraine, especially Javelin, NLAW, and Stingers. I'm still undecided about tanks, they're definitely still needed

If anything, this war proves once again just how important Intelligence is for any military. Ukraine wouldn't last this long if their Intelligence is not that motivated and capable, and being supported by the Western Intelligence as well

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Also don't forget, logistics is the lifeblood of your military
 
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Armored trains actually make sense because Russia and most of their former imperial/Soviet sphere of influence was obsessed with railways as a relatively quick and effective method of transportation. Most of Russia's wars relied on them being able to get large amounts of shit to the front line as quickly as possible so armored trains are invaluable in that regard and also why Russia still hasn't retired them when everyone else has moved on.
I don't mean to shit up the thread but I just want to add how amazing Soviet technology is that a lot of it is still in use today. From Antartica to the International Space Station.

 
Thing with tanks is, while they aren't obsolete, they are not what they were. They need lots of support to be used effectively, and their armour is becoming increasingly ineffective whilst being required to be more complex and expensive. I do wonder if Russian tanks are just lacklustre, or if this is the case for all tanks, given that in 2003 a Challenger 2 was hit with 70 RPGs and the crew survived...

Point is, having these really expensive, top of the line tanks isn't economical when someone who has done a week of training on a Javelin can knock them out from 2 miles away.

COBHAM armour is a closely guarded secret for a reason, its just insanely effective and has been the mainstay of british and american armour for 40 years. Nobody has yet to create something not the US or UK that can actually damage said armour more than scraping the paintwork off.

Said Challenger 2 only had a damaged track and broken optics when it was walloped 70+ times. Followed by the mad bastard of a commander sticking his head out to help reverse them out of the ditch they'd gotten stuck in.

It also drove itself back to the FOB.

oh they certainly have been using their latest toys too, I am just surprised they needed to supplement that with the old, not upgraded pew-pew. And it's not just that they started with the best and later started sending the old stuff, from the very first days there were vids of burned out 70's and 80's era not-upgraded vehicles, tanks without even old ERA
not to mention stuff like this:


View attachment 3068393

they also found an armored train somewhere and put it to service in Ukraine, like it was 1920's again (I really want to know if it was sitting in some mil base as equipment still in use, or if they had to take it out of some musem)
View attachment 3068397

They've dusted off armoured trains back in 2016 as they're useful logistical units for a nation of such hilarious size.

The changing of the logistical units and convoys into this fucking hilarious mismash of the civilian leftovers of the 60s and 70s military orders is kind of amazing. It's like a US Marine Corp unit's support group turning up in fucking U-haul trucks.

Another friend of mine is a currently serving british army lad. Got to see him yesterday and we obviously had a natter. Poor sod's been told he's not allowed to leave the military for another 12 months (he was looking to quit this year) but he said "We were afraid of Russia, everything pointed to them being a very scary possible enemy. None of us are frightened of them any more."
 
Another friend of mine is a currently serving british army lad. Got to see him yesterday and we obviously had a natter. Poor sod's been told he's not allowed to leave the military for another 12 months (he was looking to quit this year) but he said "We were afraid of Russia, everything pointed to them being a very scary possible enemy. None of us are frightened of them any more."
I really hope the West dont underestimate the Chinese when they inevitably invaded Taiwan in 10 years time. They're definitely reforming their military and preparing a war chest right now
 
Western intelligence believes that Vladimir Putin’s personality has changed dramatically over the past five years, with the 69-year-old Russian leader displaying increasing and obvious paranoia about his health.

But while the shift in character is marked, intelligence sources say, there is an underlying mystery about what could be the cause – with possible explanations ranging from cancer, Parkinson’s disease, the onset of dementia or the use of steroids for treatment of another condition.

“The big tell that Putin is concerned about his health is that he is so obviously worried about coronavirus,” an intelligence source said, citing his insistence on sitting at a distance from foreign leaders such as the French president, Emmanuel Macron, or some of his own key figures, such as defence minister Sergei Shoigu.

He only met China’s president, Xi Jinping, last month after elaborate coronavirus precautions were taken on both sides.

“Coverage of Russia is pretty good from both a human and signals intelligence perspective,” a western source added. “But there is a grey spot when it comes to Putin’s personal health. What we know is that there has been an identifiable change in his decision making in the past five years.”

Speculation about Putin’s long-term health is widespread amongst Russia experts in the West’s intelligence agencies.

Similar claims were reported in the Mail on Sunday over the weekend, but ultimately there is no firm evidence to back up any of the theories circulating. Putin is believed to have had three Covid vaccine treatments. One western source said he had taken the Pfizer vaccine, although the president himself said in June last year that he had received Russian Sputnik jabs.
(archive)
Considering how deep the Western Intelligence apparently are in Kremlin, this really makes you think, isn't it?
 
Ukraine war becomes a cudgel in Republican Party's internal conflict (archive)

WASHINGTON, March 13 (Reuters) - The war in Ukraine has opened a new front in the U.S. Republican Party's civil war, with party primary candidates vying to run in the November midterm elections attacking each other for past comments praising Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In Senate and House of Representatives races in at least three states, Republican candidates have been put on the defensive over comments describing Putin as intelligent, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as a "thug" and Ukraine as not worth defending. They now face criticism at a time when U.S. public opinion strongly supports Ukraine and its president.

Pat McCrory, a leading Republican Senate candidate in North Carolina's May 17 primary election, lashed out this week at his Trump-backed Republican rival, Representative Ted Budd, in his first TV ad.

"While Ukrainians bled and died ... Congressman Budd excused their killer," McCrory says in the ad, which is interspersed with video clips from a TV interview showing Budd describing Putin as "a very intelligent actor" with "strategic reasons" for the invasion.

The ad also accused Budd, who has described Putin as "evil," of casting votes "friendly" to Russia.

Budd's campaign dismissed the McCrory ad in a statement, saying, "Ted Budd presented the sort of level-headed assessment of a foreign crisis you would expect from a U.S. Senator because he knows these are serious times that require strength and substance, not the empty soundbites."

Before Russian forces moved on Ukraine on Feb. 24, some Republicans felt comfortable echoing former President Donald Trump's praise for Putin as a strong leader, while denouncing U.S. policy toward Moscow.
Even after the invasion, two Trump allies in the House - Marjorie Taylor Greene and Paul Gosar - participated in a white nationalist conference at which participants applauded Russia's move on Ukraine and chanted Putin's name.

Infighting over Putin and Ukraine has exacerbated existing divisions within the party over Trump's false claims of widespread election fraud in 2020, and a House investigation of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by the former president's supporters.

Trump has been widely criticized for describing Putin's actions toward Ukraine as "genius" and "pretty savvy" in a Feb. 22 interview.

ATTACK AD
Also in North Carolina, Representative Madison Cawthorn came under fire from his Republican rivals over remarks at a town hall in which he criticized Zelenskiy and Ukraine.

"Remember that Zelenskiy is a thug. Remember the Ukrainian government is incredibly corrupt and is incredibly evil and has been pushing woke ideologies," Cawthorn said in a video clip aired by WRAL-TV in Raleigh.

"ITS INCOMPREHENSIBLE THAT A MEMBER OF CONGRESS WOULD CALL UKRAINES PRESIDENT A THUG!" tweeted Michele Woodhouse, who is challenging Cawthorn in the Republican primary.

Cawthorn's office did not respond to a Reuters query seeking comment.

The Republicans are vying to become candidates at the November midterm elections in which control of the U.S. Congress is at stake.

In Utah, independent Senate candidate Evan McMullin, a former CIA officer, attacked Republican Senator Mike Lee in an ad accusing the two-term incumbent of "making us weak and unsafe" in the midst of the current Ukraine crisis by opposing sanctions against Russia and visiting Moscow.

But the actions cited in the ad occurred years before the Ukraine invasion or were mischaracterized, according to the fact-checking website PolitiFact, which judged the ad "mostly false."

Lee's office did not respond to a Reuters query seeking comment. But McMullin's campaign said it stood behind the ad and insisted that Lee has displayed a pattern of appeasing Putin.
 
Russia says nearly half its reserves are frozen, counts on ties with China (archive)

LONDON, March 13 (Reuters) - Russia said on Sunday that it was counting on China to help it withstand the blow to its economy from Western sanctions, which it said had frozen nearly half of its gold and foreign currency reserves.

“We have part of our gold and foreign exchange reserves in the Chinese currency, in yuan. And we see what pressure is being exerted by Western countries on China in order to limit mutual trade with China. Of course, there is pressure to limit access to those reserves," Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said.

"But I think that our partnership with China will still allow us to maintain the cooperation that we have achieved, and not only maintain, but also increase it in an environment where Western markets are closing."

Western countries have imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia's corporate and financial system since it invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 in what it calls a special military operation.

Siluanov's comments in a TV interview marked the clearest statement yet from Moscow that it will seek help from China to cushion the impact.

The two countries have tightened cooperation in recent times as both have come under strong Western pressure over human rights and a raft of other issues.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing on Feb. 4 and announced a strategic partnership they said was aimed at countering the influence of the United States, describing it as a friendship with no limits.

The sanctions on Russian reserves have become one of the most painful measures for the Russian economy.

A month ago, Siluanov said Russia would be able to withstand sanctions thanks to abundant reserves and was even considering offering Eurobonds to foreign investors once the market volatility subsides.

On Sunday he said the sanctions had frozen around $300 billion out of $640 billion that Russia had in its gold and forex reserves.

Siluanov also said Russia will fulfil its state debt obligations and will pay roubles to its debt holders until the state reserves are unfrozen.
 
they also found an armored train somewhere and put it to service in Ukraine, like it was 1920's again (I really want to know if it was sitting in some mil base as equipment still in use, or if they had to take it out of some musem)
Probably still sitting in a military base ready for use. As I alluded to previously the Russians inherited the Soviet mania for keeping everything around no matter how obsolete, and apparently Russia has actively used them in some of their more recent conflicts for whatever reason

Most of Russia's wars relied on them being able to get large amounts of shit to the front line as quickly as possible so armored trains are invaluable in that regard and also why Russia still hasn't retired them when everyone else has moved on.
Rail is still objectively the most efficient way to move huge amounts of shit around, hence the Russian fetish for it. That being said armoured trains are a meme and have been for a long time. They do nothing to defend themselves against the current threat profiles, and energy spent hauling around armour and weapons they ain't using is energy not spent bringing in more useful shit they could be.

I'm still undecided about tanks, they're definitely still needed
They are still needed, the problem is almost no-one is building new ones, relying instead on upgrading existing designs. I think the real winners of the contactors in the tank space are the ones working on APS for them.

Poor sod's been told he's not allowed to leave the military for another 12 months (he was looking to quit this year) but he said "We were afraid of Russia, everything pointed to them being a very scary possible enemy. None of us are frightened of them any more."
Interesting they're blocking leaving. Means they're actively considering the possibility of Russia doing something stupid in the short term. Also interesting to see the change in attitude, even after the fall of the Cold War Russia (and to a lesser extent China), were seen as our only real enemy. Will be fun to see how the army adapts to knowing there's likely no real peer vs peer threat anymore, and shit is sliding further and further towards asymetric warfare.
 
Maher continued on by saying he didn't believe Trump had an effect, so basically just him being bewildered people believe Trump did.

Much the same as the majority of the media, Maher will never admit that his perception of Trump may have been wrong.
Honselty I think Trump did have a effect. But I find guys like Maher are interesting as they almost come off as waking up but in the end of the day are scared to admit that they may be wrong.
 
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