War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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at this point armor seems to be left behind by the capabilities of anti-tank missiles, that race is lost. Added or improved armor will still loose to better warheads. There are some vids of tanks getting blown up by RPG team, and that's old skool. Also, there are rpg7 tandem shots that are tested to work well against reactive armor, but I have not seen a single one.

This is Ukrainian Stugna in action. They offer at least twice the range of javelins.

View attachment 3069803
The main benefits to the Javelin is it is 1 man portable and useable. Plus unlike most other guided anti tank systems, it’s fire and forget. Or rather “fire and duck for cover”. You don’t have to paint the target or wire guide the missile.

Some interesting thoughts and analysis from Ward Carroll. If you’ve never encountered him, he is a career Naval Aviator (Tomcat RIO) with a deep Rolodex of some surprisingly highly ranked and placed military people. His Youtube channel is generally really good, very informative. And prone to cut through the bullshit. Or most of it. He’s buying into a bit of the Ukrainian propaganda at the end. But his analysis on the Russian Air Forces in this is likely dead on.
 
lol grooming trans kids = Ukraine war

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"Russia has asked China for military equipment to support its invasion of Ukraine, according to US officials, sparking concern in the White House that Beijing may undermine western efforts to help Ukrainian forces defend their country.

US officials told the Financial Times that Russia had requested military equipment and other assistance since the start of the invasion. They declined to give details about what Russia had requeste

Another person familiar with the situation said the US was preparing to warn its allies, amid some indications that China may be preparing to help Russia. Other US officials have said there were signs that Russia was running out of some kinds of weaponry as the war in Ukraine extends into its third wee

The White House did not comment. The Chinese embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for a commen

The revelation comes as Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, heads to Rome for talks on Monday with Yang Jiechi, China’s top foreign policy officia

Before leaving Washington on Sunday, Sullivan warned China not to try to “bail out” Russia by helping Moscow to circumvent the sanctions that the US and its allies have imposed on President Vladimir Putin and his regime

"We will ensure that neither China, nor anyone else, can compensate Russia for these losses,” Sullivan told NBC television on Sunday. “In terms of the specific means of doing that, again, I’m not going to lay all of that out in public, but we will communicate that privately to China, as we have already done and will continue to do.”

The request for equipment and other kinds of unspecified military assistance comes as the Russian military struggles to make as much progress in Ukraine as western intelligence believe they expected.

It also raises fresh questions about the China-Russia relationship, which has grown increasingly strong as both countries express their opposition to the US over everything from Nato to sanctions.

China has portrayed itself as a neutral actor in the Ukraine crisis and has refused to condemn Russia for invading the country. The US has also seen no sign that Chinese president Xi Jinping is willing to put any pressure on Putin.

The two leaders signed a joint statement in Beijing last month describing the Beijing-Moscow partnership as having “no limits”, in another sign that the two capitals were drawing even closer together."


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Doubt xi will go for it. If anything he'll be smelling blood in the water.


Also TIL the easiest way to bypass the ft obnoxious copy/paste injection on mobile is to share the article to, for example, a messaging app rather than trying to copy it.
Damn, beat me to it. Also, dude, archive...
https://archive.md/o7Itm
That is assuming US intelligence is to believed. These are the people who thought it would take the Taliban a month to take Kabul when it was in fact less than a week.
I humbly disagree. In this specific conflict, the Western Intelligence are very good so far. They knew the correct estimate of when Russia when invaded, how China is implicated in this war by leaking intel and fixing the invasion date, and how their counter-intelligence managed to round up most if not all Russian saboteurs. And that's not counting for the SIGINT, EW intelligence, and many other things that created this many obstacles that slowed, if not stopped, Russian advances.

Hell, I'm not surprised one of the reason Russia was confident of a quick victory over Ukraine was because the West and the Ukr managed to paint themselves as weaker than they actually is
The PLA is suddenly looking nervously considering all of their Gen 3 MBTs are derived modification of the fucking T-55.
Those things are going to get fucking rinsed if stuff developed later is getting mulched.

They're literally upgraded T-55 derivatives with new turrets and control systems. The chassis are nearly the damn same. PLA is using the full blown Soviet style of just waves of everything. Hence 1200+ Type 99As. So far as I am aware their own composite armour has never been tried against anything beyond internal testing.

If its true, and I slightly doubt it considering the source, China will want to come out ahead completely against any geopolitical rival and they can do so here by doing nothing and effectively enslaving the Russian economy with their SWIFT alternative system alongside the Indians. All while making more notes on how the Javelin might fare against their own armour.

I'd bet on the Chinese getting themselves a few Javelins to look at and reverse engineer themselves if they haven't already, just like they incorporated one of the USMC manuals about ten years back.
Tanks are not good for naval invasion, and Taiwan itself has some mountainous terrain that will be bad for tanks, so they better invest more for Light Infantry gears and tactics
This is Ukrainian Stugna in action. They offer at least twice the range of javelins.

View attachment 3069803
That's a beautiful footage right there
Warning shots fired at protestors in Kherson:

BBC link
They're definitely struggling to keep the occupied territory under control. That's a lot of resources I don't think they can spend while they still needed to take the southern coasts and Kyiv. Insurgency is real
 
The main benefits to the Javelin is it is 1 man portable and useable. Plus unlike most other guided anti tank systems, it’s fire and forget. Or rather “fire and duck for cover”. You don’t have to paint the target or wire guide the missile.

I get it about javs, the problem though with infantry support for armor, you have to have balls of steel to step out into the clear to take a shot, especially out in the country where opportunity to escape is pretty dismal. If I had a choice, Stugna is better suited for Ukraine open spaces. Typically fields are separated by planted rows of trees that provide nice cover, and fire team is short distance away from the launcher which gives that extra assurance that your ass isn't as exposed in the worst case scenario. In a town, you can probably sit in the basement with launcher being elsewhere, pointing in the general direction of incoming traffic.

Some interesting thoughts and analysis from Ward Carroll. If you’ve never encountered him, he is a career Naval Aviator (Tomcat RIO) with a deep Rolodex of some surprisingly highly ranked and placed military people. His Youtube channel is generally really good, very informative. And prone to cut through the bullshit. Or most of it. He’s buying into a bit of the Ukrainian propaganda at the end. But his analysis on the Russian Air Forces in this is likely dead on.

That's an awesome video, this is like the first sane, level headed western dude that gave a spot on assessment. If I had anything to add, Russia's mil budget is stolen almost entirely by every level of command and reality of conscription is something that most people have hard time to imagine.
 





"Russia has asked China for military equipment to support its invasion of Ukraine, according to US officials, sparking concern in the White House that Beijing may undermine western efforts to help Ukrainian forces defend their country.

US officials told the Financial Times that Russia had requested military equipment and other assistance since the start of the invasion. They declined to give details about what Russia had requeste

Another person familiar with the situation said the US was preparing to warn its allies, amid some indications that China may be preparing to help Russia. Other US officials have said there were signs that Russia was running out of some kinds of weaponry as the war in Ukraine extends into its third wee

The White House did not comment. The Chinese embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for a commen

The revelation comes as Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, heads to Rome for talks on Monday with Yang Jiechi, China’s top foreign policy officia

Before leaving Washington on Sunday, Sullivan warned China not to try to “bail out” Russia by helping Moscow to circumvent the sanctions that the US and its allies have imposed on President Vladimir Putin and his regime

"We will ensure that neither China, nor anyone else, can compensate Russia for these losses,” Sullivan told NBC television on Sunday. “In terms of the specific means of doing that, again, I’m not going to lay all of that out in public, but we will communicate that privately to China, as we have already done and will continue to do.”

The request for equipment and other kinds of unspecified military assistance comes as the Russian military struggles to make as much progress in Ukraine as western intelligence believe they expected.

It also raises fresh questions about the China-Russia relationship, which has grown increasingly strong as both countries express their opposition to the US over everything from Nato to sanctions.

China has portrayed itself as a neutral actor in the Ukraine crisis and has refused to condemn Russia for invading the country. The US has also seen no sign that Chinese president Xi Jinping is willing to put any pressure on Putin.

The two leaders signed a joint statement in Beijing last month describing the Beijing-Moscow partnership as having “no limits”, in another sign that the two capitals were drawing even closer together."


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Doubt xi will go for it. If anything he'll be smelling blood in the water.


Also TIL the easiest way to bypass the ft obnoxious copy/paste injection on mobile is to share the article to, for example, a messaging app rather than trying to copy it.
“Piece of…HOW ARE YOU A SUPERPOWER?”-Sterling Archer
 

Putin braces for coup as 'disgruntled' top Russian generals turn on Kremlin chief​

VLADIMIR PUTIN is actively preparing to face a coup following the humiliation that Russia has suffered in Ukraine, according to an investigative journalist with key sources inside the Russian secret services.​

By OLI SMITH
00:00, Mon, Mar 14, 2022 | UPDATED: 00:01, Mon, Mar 14, 2022

Vladimir Putin could face a Kremlin coup as Russia continues to falter in the face of fierce resistance in Ukraine. Andrei Soldatov, a leading Russian investigative journalist with sources inside the Russian secret service, told Channel 4 News that everything is becoming possible in the wake of the invasion. Mr Soldatov revealed earlier this week that President Putin had placed the head of the FSB's foreign service under house arrest as Kremlin blame-game began.

It appeared that President Putin blamed the FSB, the post-Soviet successor to the KGB, for giving him false projections of how the war in Ukraine would go.

The FSB security service had apparently told the Russian President that Ukraine was weak and would give up easily if invaded.

This follows claims from Oleksiy Danilov, head of Ukraine's security council, that "around eight" Russian commanders have been sacked since the start of the conflict.

Speaking to Matt Frei on Channel 4 News, Mr Soldatov said: "Putin has become very unhappy with the military intelligence coming from Ukraine.

"It looks like it has dawned on Putin that there is no credible opposition in Ukraine to the Kyiv government. He cannot rely on anyone in Ukraine."

The investigative journalist said that the military officials in Ukraine were too afraid to tell President Putin the truth.

He continued: "He believes he is the most informed politician in the world.

"He loves to boast of his knowledge of geopolitics. So it is difficult to tell him something he doesn't want to hear.

"We do not have anyone on the ground in Ukraine in charge, any general.

"We only have people in Moscow talking about how the war should be conducted. The entire chain of command is getting really weird."

Matt Frei questioned whether frustrated senior generals on the frontline in Ukraine could join with "disgruntled" officers in the FSB spy service to turn against President Putin and "dislodge him".

Mr Soldatov said: "Everything is becoming possible right now. Putin is well-aware of the risks to his personal security."

He added that President Putin was already taking precautions and was preparing for a potential coup or threat to his life.

The remarks echo comments made by Russia’s first post-Soviet foreign minister Andrei Kozyrev, who told The Times this week that the Russian leader was risking a Kremlin coup.

He said: "With Putin, I very much expect there to be resistance growing and discontent growing that will be resolved one way or another."

This weekend ordinary Russians took to the streets again to protest the war in Ukraine.

Protests erupted in more than 37 cities across Russia for the third weekend in a row as anger builds inside the country against the war and its leader President Vladimir Putin.

Since Russia launched its invasion, more than 14,200 people have been arrested in Russia for taking part in anti-war protests.
 

Putin braces for coup as 'disgruntled' top Russian generals turn on Kremlin chief​

VLADIMIR PUTIN is actively preparing to face a coup following the humiliation that Russia has suffered in Ukraine, according to an investigative journalist with key sources inside the Russian secret services.​

By OLI SMITH
00:00, Mon, Mar 14, 2022 | UPDATED: 00:01, Mon, Mar 14, 2022

Vladimir Putin could face a Kremlin coup as Russia continues to falter in the face of fierce resistance in Ukraine. Andrei Soldatov, a leading Russian investigative journalist with sources inside the Russian secret service, told Channel 4 News that everything is becoming possible in the wake of the invasion. Mr Soldatov revealed earlier this week that President Putin had placed the head of the FSB's foreign service under house arrest as Kremlin blame-game began.

It appeared that President Putin blamed the FSB, the post-Soviet successor to the KGB, for giving him false projections of how the war in Ukraine would go.

The FSB security service had apparently told the Russian President that Ukraine was weak and would give up easily if invaded.

This follows claims from Oleksiy Danilov, head of Ukraine's security council, that "around eight" Russian commanders have been sacked since the start of the conflict.

Speaking to Matt Frei on Channel 4 News, Mr Soldatov said: "Putin has become very unhappy with the military intelligence coming from Ukraine.

"It looks like it has dawned on Putin that there is no credible opposition in Ukraine to the Kyiv government. He cannot rely on anyone in Ukraine."

The investigative journalist said that the military officials in Ukraine were too afraid to tell President Putin the truth.

He continued: "He believes he is the most informed politician in the world.

"He loves to boast of his knowledge of geopolitics. So it is difficult to tell him something he doesn't want to hear.

"We do not have anyone on the ground in Ukraine in charge, any general.

"We only have people in Moscow talking about how the war should be conducted. The entire chain of command is getting really weird."

Matt Frei questioned whether frustrated senior generals on the frontline in Ukraine could join with "disgruntled" officers in the FSB spy service to turn against President Putin and "dislodge him".

Mr Soldatov said: "Everything is becoming possible right now. Putin is well-aware of the risks to his personal security."

He added that President Putin was already taking precautions and was preparing for a potential coup or threat to his life.

The remarks echo comments made by Russia’s first post-Soviet foreign minister Andrei Kozyrev, who told The Times this week that the Russian leader was risking a Kremlin coup.

He said: "With Putin, I very much expect there to be resistance growing and discontent growing that will be resolved one way or another."

This weekend ordinary Russians took to the streets again to protest the war in Ukraine.

Protests erupted in more than 37 cities across Russia for the third weekend in a row as anger builds inside the country against the war and its leader President Vladimir Putin.

Since Russia launched its invasion, more than 14,200 people have been arrested in Russia for taking part in anti-war protests.
This could not read more like the classic western propoganda. Didn't they think/say similar things about the gov of Nazi Germany?
 
This deserves a separate post ...


This dude chained himself to McDonalds in Moscow. He says:

"October 31st, 1990 is when McDonalds came to USSR and that's when I was born. Tomorrow they are leaving. This is betrayal. I am a musician. I have spent all my money here. I have nothing to do with the current administration that fucked it for everyone, for regular people like me who now have to change."




I kind of feel bad for the dude, tbh. I've never been to Moscow's McDonalds, but the one in Kyiv, is pretty shockingly different from an American one, it's basically like an upscale restaurant that serves shitty food that looks good.

1. It's stupid clean and everything is new and shines.
2. Crew is very young, attractive and very enthusiastic.
3. The menu is somehow fucked up, because you need to make various choices unlike just ordering "#1" ... I did not like that, plus they have local flavored crap, I just wanted the greasy solution to 15min time I had.


And so ... the last order of Moscow's McDonald's. The end of the era. This is depressing.

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I'm sorry, what's your point exactly? My point was that the whole "RUSSIA IS COLLAPSING, PUTIN IS LITERALLY ABOUT TO BE SHOT" seems a bit too fed to me. My other point was that the British thought the same about the German Reich, and thought it would collapse a month or so into the war. The Reich was fairly stable, and as we know lasted until 1945. The point is, they predicted a fall, which didn't happen. Seems like they might be blowing their load a bit soon here. Unless the feds are behind the coup, in which case they'll just place someone worse
 
The FSB chief was apparently arrested because he and the FSB stole all of the billions intended to recruits agents and influence to stage coup and weaken Ukraine. I'll post the rest here when I have the time
Huh, I was wondering why they didn't do that (straight up buy a coup in Kiev) to begin with, guess I'm used to western corruption model that leaves just enough to get shit done at least half-assedly as opposed to eastern model where every money transfer goes from a government bank account straight into a black hole.
 
I'm sorry, what's your point exactly? My point was that the whole "RUSSIA IS COLLAPSING, PUTIN IS LITERALLY ABOUT TO BE SHOT" seems a bit too fed to me. My other point was that the British thought the same about the German Reich, and thought it would collapse a month or so into the war. The Reich was fairly stable, and as we know lasted until 1945. The point is, they predicted a fall, which didn't happen. Seems like they might be blowing their load a bit soon here. Unless the feds are behind the coup, in which case they'll just place someone worse

Putin has been in the bunker and there hasn't been non-green screen vids of him getting close to another human being in a long time, even shoigu is like 10meters away. Unlike in Reich, most oligharchs have no loyalty to Putin, only their place near the trough to feed from. At this point he is toxic to be around. Majority of Russian "patriots" have their families in the West as their money. Some of the biggest mouthpieces of Russian patriotism ran to Israel embassy to apply for citizenship, many already took off to Florida US, Israel, Cyprus.

The purges are real and you don't do purges if things are going great.

The sanctions will take time, everyone says it, even Biden said it (lol) but they are big deal. All the trust, investments, wealth built over the period of 30 years is crashing. Can Russian wipe their ass with fingers again? Yes, shit, even North Korea still survives, I don't see anyone envy them, but their continue to exist.
 
Putin has been in the bunker and there hasn't been non-green screen vids of him getting close to another human being in a long time, even shoigu is like 10meters away. Unlike in Reich, most oligharchs have no loyalty to Putin, only their place near the trough to feed from. At this point he is toxic to be around.

The purges are real and you don't do purges if things are going great.

The sanctions will take time, everyone says it, even Biden said it (lol) but they are big deal. All the trust, investments, wealth built over the period of 30 years is crashing. Can Russian wipe their ass with fingers again? Yes, shit, even North Korea still survives, I don't see anyone envy them, but their continue to exist.
One thing is to assert that Putin doesn't come into public, the other is to assert he is about to be shot. This feels like when the Pentagon agent went to the news and claimed he had undeniable proof that Putin was about to die from a lethal anal disease. His proof? Putin wasn't smilling, therefore anus about to kill him.

I do agree with your loyalty point, although it's far to early to start celebrating a potential coup as the media is doing

When is the last time Putin seen on public, even on a televised remark?
2 weeks ago (if you don't count his alleged fake appearance a week ago), as far as I know. But given the censorship the media employs, it may be that we haven't heard any of his new apperances.
 
I'm sorry, what's your point exactly? My point was that the whole "RUSSIA IS COLLAPSING, PUTIN IS LITERALLY ABOUT TO BE SHOT" seems a bit too fed to me. My other point was that the British thought the same about the German Reich, and thought it would collapse a month or so into the war. The Reich was fairly stable, and as we know lasted until 1945. The point is, they predicted a fall, which didn't happen. Seems like they might be blowing their load a bit soon here. Unless the feds are behind the coup, in which case they'll just place someone worse
The point is that even in the stable Third Reich Hitler had to worry about plotters, and things are a hell of a lot less stable than Nazi Germany in Russia right now, and with an officer corps that wasn't raised in the Prussian military tradition of loyalty above all. Considering that the CIA, like the rest of the Federal government, has "Will you take a check?" as their first question they ask when it comes to acquisitions of any sort, if I was a Russian general I'd be mighty tempted to look into cutting a deal that sees me sitting pretty in some foreign country with nice weather and no extradition treaties along my wife, family, and a couple live-in mistresses.
 
2 weeks ago (if you don't count his alleged fake appearance a week ago), as far as I know. But given the censorship the media employs, it may be that we haven't heard any of his new apperances.
I think even with our censorship and propaganda every word out of Putin's mouth would be page 1-2 news at this point even if taken out of context or just there to be mocked, just like they do with Lavrov, that one speaks but whatever he says is instantly mocked or his speeches are cut very short and we're told to completely disregard them but the media does talk about him saying shit.

About the only thing we hear about Putin's activities lately is him signing legislation after legislation to make sure Russian citizens STFU. Though he supposedly has phone calls with Macron, Shultz and Israeli PM on the regular.
 
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