Well, the number of Russian men coming home in boxes will only increase, least until the Russian Army stops sending them back altogether. Discontent in Russia will only grow as sanctions hit harder and harder. Should Putin call up substantial reserve forces, those losses will also hurt the civilian economy.
Win, at whatever cost, or just walk out, Putin is fucked. The Emperor has no clothes. He staked everything on a rollover, only to find the Ukrainians also had a vote. And asking China for help? Not cool in the eyes of many Russians.
If we're talking the Russo-Japanese War of 1905, the Japanese beat the Russians like red-headed stepchildren. The Russian Baltic fleet went most of the way around the world to get sunk by the Japanese. Afghanistan didn't start badly, but just like we did last year, the USSR had had enough and got the fuck out.
Now we are apparently seeing strategic bombers staying in Russia and firing cruise missiles at Ukraine. Tells me the Uke air defense network is still a going thing. Otherwise, you'd see those Bears and Blackjacks dropping their loads on Uke cities.