Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Lone MacReady]

I would suggest nobody has any idea just what the fuck is going to happen.

Let's step back to 1914. The assassination of Franz Ferdinand and his wife was an international incident that ended up dragging just about all of Europe, Russia, Japan, and later the USA into a world war. Maybe the slide down that slippery slope could have been halted by cooler heads, maybe not. But millions of people died.

Like it or not, suggest some similarities and some differences. Here, neither Ukraine nor Russia are members of any treaty organizations or have mutual-aid treaties, unlike Germany and Austro-Hungary, and Great Britain and France. The challenge is to keep the war confined to Russia and Ukraine. This is hard and will only become more and more difficult as the Russians continue their attacks into Ukraine and capture certain cities.

The hard fact is Ukraine isn't a NATO member. Don't even think Ukraine has been designated an "major non-NATO ally", like Afghanistan was. Seriously. Hillary herself made that declaration when she was SecState. Almost puked when I heard it.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-declares-afghanistan-major-non-nato-ally/

https://archive.ph/e83NL

All of us have things about which we don't act or react rationally. Sometimes these things can be small, such as foods or clothes, sometimes kids. Suggest Putin isn't acting or reacting all that rationally about Ukraine. He wants that buffer state, and he wants to punish Ukraine for their sheer nerve in acting like a sovereign, independent state, and nothing else will do. Not the actions of a rational person; a weakness has been exposed. Our problem is Putin has a large nuclear arsenal. You like to think Putin wouldn't use nukes, but we also liked to think he wouldn't invade Ukraine. Russia simply cannot fight and win a conventional WWIII. So NATO stays behind the Polish border, providing support, and making sure this doesn't turn into a Third World War.

Never forget that X factor, Judeo-Communist Bankers, and their meddling.

 

[Beef Elemental]

https://youtu.be/ZPBU_MX1fYE

A round up for the slow kids a little dated but it’s what those who don’t pay attention deserve. ( as usual something something russia strong or some gay shit about simping for a 69 year old addicted to plastic surgery.)

Nobody deserves AIDS.

 

[Mr Bunny]

Get so used to being a contrarian, that they automatically go to the opposite side no matter how fucking insane it is. They then try to frame Putin as either reasonable, or just a little out there, but who could blame him because MURICA! It's also ego, a lot of Americans love to live in a world where everything, good or ill is their fault.

When you're the most powerful country in world you do infact cause harm and benefit even when you don't mean to. That's the nature of being a super-power and having our hands in many things and many countries.

 

[Hell on Earth]

I wonder if we will see photos like this in this war.

An old German woman walks through the smoking ruins of Berlin after the city was captured by the Red Army. 1945.

 

[Wash away the rain]

Nobody deserves AIDS.

what about league players

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

The Russians only started using satellite-guided munitions in the 2010s. The US has been using them since the 90s, and obviously produces them at higher quantities than anyone else. Similarly, Russia predominantly uses unguided munitions in Syria, Libya, etc. Hence, Russia is going to have lower quantities than the US. Another issue Russia is facing is they are reserving their better forces/equipment in case they start fighting NATO. So, they have smaller stocks than the US, but its unclear what those stocks actually look like.

Issue with the whole "Russian reserves and stockpiles" thing, as JosephStalin is saying a ton of money meant for improving the military has instead obviously gone into someone's pocket. If this is a major issue with the active forces put forward for combat, I can only imagine just how much issues are compounded onto the active forces being held back, and it's likely even worse for equipment and material designated as for reserve forces or stockpiles.

 

[Mussi]

If you are talking the Nazi-Soviet Pact, both sides helped each other. The Nazis wanted Soviet grain, oil, and raw materials. The Soviets wanted some weaponry, but most importantly time to prepare for the inevitable war with Germany. Both wanted their spheres of influence.

Question for pondering - which side benefitted most from the Nazi-Soviet Pact? I'd say the Germans did. They were getting Soviet shipments of oil, grain and raw materials right up to the day Operation Barbarossa started. In contrast, the Soviets frittered away a lot of time fighting the war with Finland, then rebuilding the ravaged Red Army. After the end of that war the Soviets did some half-hearted preparation of a "Stalin Line", which turned out to be useless against the German attack. The Germans provided little in the way of arms. To be sure, the Soviets gained something of a buffer zone with their part of Poland and the Baltics, but to little avail once Barbarossa kicked off.

The Soviets got a pretty good deal on paper with the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. Getting Eastern Poland with very little cost and acknowledged dominance over almost all of the former territories of the Russian Empire was a pretty incredible diplomatic coup since none of those states were expected to put up much of a fight. Stalin of course squandered away these huge concessions, with the "Stalin Line" that was hastily constructed just before the German invasion and the Winter War being the more ill-informed of the decisions.

I wasn't only referring to that, though. The Russian Empire had a habit of making poorly thought out alliances with competing great powers. Aligning with the Habsburgs when they were both vying for the Balkans, supporting the Ottoman Empire over Muhammad Ali of Egypt when they were in the perfect position to put their thumb on the scale and destroy the country that held the key to the Mediterranean from them, favoring the French and especially the British over the Germans when they had no competing interests...

In this case, I see China and maybe India as Russia's only potential notable allies. Russia gets Chinese support in trade, financial resources, and potentially backroom access to the world's markets, and China gets a great boogeyman that's not them disturbing the American-dominated world.

 

[JosephStalin]

When i was reading your post and i reached this part i remembered a twitter thread that Boris Yeltsen's former Russian Federation foreign minister Andrei Kozyrev made about a week ago about why he thinks putin is a rational actor, i would like to know your thoughts on it, just curious.

thread on the threadreader app

He makes some good points, but a rational actor would have realized he could have gotten much of what he wanted through diplomacy and negotiations with Ukraine. Maybe use some economic carrots. A rational actor would have understood Ukraine is an independent, sovereign state and has the right to make their own decisions. And 'not intentionally" use nukes against the West? We can only hope so. Thanks for the article.

Issue with the whole "Russian reserves and stockpiles" thing, as JosephStalin is saying a ton of money meant for improving the military has instead obviously gone into someone's pocket. If this is a major issue with the active forces put forward for combat, I can only imagine just how much issues are compounded onto the active forces being held back, and it's likely even worse for equipment and material designated as for reserve forces or stockpiles.

Indeed. Suggest a multitude of sins will be uncovered if and when the Russians go to their war reserve stocks...if they even have any. We sure do.

 

[HTTP Error 404]

I thought that was already policy among any military worth a salt?

The same US military that requires trigger warnings, won't allow drill instructors to raise their voices anymore, and is putting everyone through multiple courses of sensitivity training? You think they're gonna be able to pry the cellphones out of the grunts' fingers? I doubt it.

 

[Mussi]

He makes some good points, but a rational actor would have realized he could have gotten much of what he wanted through diplomacy and negotiations with Ukraine. Maybe use some economic carrots. A rational actor would have understood Ukraine is an independent, sovereign state and has the right to make their own decisions. And 'not intentionally" use nukes against the West? We can only hope so. Thanks for the article.

The only concession that Putin really wanted from Ukraine that could have been possibly gained from negotiation was not joining NATO, and even that one seems unlikely as Zelensky seemed to be pretty insistent that he wouldn't let Russia interfere with his diplomatic objectives and it seems someone might have offered Z-man some shit assurances. The price Putin would have to pay Ukraine in return for them staying neutral would be far too high for Putin to ever accept; bare minimum, a proper guarantee of neutrality would take the Donbas sister republics' reintegration back into Ukraine as autonomies and the return of Crimea on the heavy side. The only case where Russia would give up Crimea in the foreseeable future is if Russia ceases to exist as we know it today or if the government is overthrown by Western agents; it's simply too Russian and too dear to Putin's legacy. It would be like expecting Germany to give up Alsace-Lorraine without a fight prior to WWI.

On the other hand, Zelensky, or any other Ukrainian nationalist, for that matter, would never, ever agree to recognize Crimea as Russian territory and he would be even more opposed to recognizing the DNR and LNR as independent republics or demilitarize, all of which are stated goals of Putin. The unstated goals of Putin that are speculated to range from more People's Republics to a complete annexation of Ukraine are also obviously impossible to acquire through diplomatic means.

Basically, the things that Russia really wants from Ukraine are impossible to achieve through any means short of a pro-Russian coup or outright invasion. Therefore, Putin's actions are rational in achieving his goals.

 

[Breadbassket]

Video of the International Center for Peacekeeping and Security in the Lviv region that got hit Russian missiles. It is said to be a training ground for the foreign volunteers of Ukraine. Apparently 35 people died and 134 were injured. Someone on r/VolunteersForUkraine posted proof they were there.

 

[The Other Baldwin]

Edited. Nothingburger in Lviv.

 

[JosephStalin]

The same US military that requires trigger warnings, won't allow drill instructors to raise their voices anymore, and is putting everyone through multiple courses of sensitivity training? You think they're gonna be able to pry the cellphones out of the grunts' fingers? I doubt it.

Suggest when shit gets real things will change very quickly. "Woke" is a peacetime luxury.

 

[God of Nothing]

Redittard thinking twice about going to Ukraine and figuring out that modern war isn't about adventure, glorious bayonet charges and killing 20 Russian dudes a la Jonh Wick (WW1 naivety all over again)

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Hilarious. Just perfect, even if it does turn out to be fake. It's modern real life war: you'll die like a bitch to some guy a mile away who saw you all moving in and decided you'd be a fair enough kill or the aerial death machines we ended up relying on to do most of our dirty work.

 

[Mussi]

Video of the International Center for Peacekeeping and Security in the Lviv region that got hit Russian missiles. It is said to be a training ground for the foreign volunteers of Ukraine. Apparently 35 people died and 134 were injured. Someone on r/VolunteersForUkraine posted proof they were there.
View attachment 3071004

I don't want to power level too hard, but a good friend of mine has recently left to join up with the foreign volunteers against my advice. I'm deeply afraid he will suffer this fate, but I also know that he made his bed when he decided that he would fight for a country he has never been to ostensibly to fight for freedom and democracy, while in reality I think he's simply living out a fantasy that he's had ever since he was rejected from our military on medical grounds.

 

[Puff]

unless you're willing to admit the Arkanacides were all real.

I am.

 

[Tree]

In what way would China world be better? If it's implemented vs hypothetical, I'll always pick the place that can be changed for the better.
While I do agree competing world powers need to exist I very much enjoy living in the one where I actually do have relatively free speech.

You know Santa Claus? Free speech is kinda like that.

 

[Duke Nukem]

Nobody deserves AIDS.

I disagree, Redditors do.

Suggest when shit gets real things will change very quickly. "Woke" is a peacetime luxury.

Unfortunately, it's also the ideology that's been crammed up our butts whenever TPTB believe that they can get away with it. Then again, the Left has sold out their beliefs on war and racism in recent weeks.

 

[Hell on Earth]

The only concession that Putin really wanted from Ukraine that could have been possibly gained from negotiation was not joining NATO, and even that one seems unlikely as Zelensky seemed to be pretty insistent that he wouldn't let Russia interfere with his diplomatic objectives and it seems someone might have offered Z-man some shit assurances. The price Putin would have to pay Ukraine in return for them staying neutral would be far too high for Putin to ever accept; bare minimum, a proper guarantee of neutrality would take the Donbas sister republics' reintegration back into Ukraine as autonomies and the return of Crimea on the heavy side. The only case where Russia would give up Crimea in the foreseeable future is if Russia ceases to exist as we know it today or if the government is overthrown by Western agents; it's simply too Russian and too dear to Putin's legacy. It would be like expecting Germany to give up Alsace-Lorraine without a fight prior to WWI.

On the other hand, Zelensky, or any other Ukrainian nationalist, for that matter, would never, ever agree to recognize Crimea as Russian territory and he would be even more opposed to recognizing the DNR and LNR as independent republics or demilitarize, all of which are stated goals of Putin. The unstated goals of Putin that are speculated to range from more People's Republics to a complete annexation of Ukraine are also obviously impossible to acquire through diplomatic means.

Basically, the things that Russia really wants from Ukraine are impossible to achieve through any means short of a pro-Russian coup or outright invasion. Therefore, Putin's actions are rational in achieving his goals.

Basically, it means that for these reasons this war was not matter of "if" but "when".

Every anti-putin poster here believes that Putin is just another Napoleon lll but worse.

An imitator that is living in the shadow of those that came before him and wants to restore past glories.

Maybe that is true but Putin's mimicking act of Napoleon lll is still not complete without his Sedan and most anti-putin people here think that this will be his Sedan, even if he doesn't get deposed, he will be looked at as a laughing stock.

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

I don't want to power level too hard, but a good friend of mine has recently left to join up with the foreign volunteers against my advice. I'm deeply afraid he will suffer this fate, but I also know that he made his bed when he decided that he would fight for a country he has never been to ostensibly to fight for freedom and democracy, while in reality I think he's simply living out a fantasy that he's had ever since he was rejected from our military on medical grounds.

Well there's a chance the war might end today so he might not step foot in Ukraine. Apparently unlike all the other times there's actual hopes for the talks this time around.