How likely is nuclear war? I don’t believe anything The main stream media says.
less and less likely by the day tbh. in the first week or so I was legit deebly concerned if NATO wasn't going to do some kind of Yippie-Kay-Yay MoFo move...but then a week passed, and another, and another and despite all the sanctions, virtue signalling and promises of lend-lease...they won't lift a finger themselves to fight the Russians. it's clearer and clearer, in fact, that they don't think they'll have to. you have plenty of optimists among their politicians believing Ukraine will prevail on its own (check this thread for any doubt of that), so what need is there for the nukes then, right?
ofc...if we DO actually see a massive escalation by the Russians (with tactical nukes being their very last option perhaps), and by the end of it all they do wind up browbeating Ukraine somehow, then you should start worrying again. people itt seem to think it not that possible anymore and that russian military ain't shit, but who the hell knows what exactly fucked up their initial plans (and fucked up it did get). TBH I saw this same kind of bullshit copium believed on and on about Assad, that his military is horseshit and entirely propped up, that soon he'd be deposed and the FSA would prevail in his place with their righteous fighting spirit...and look how THAT turned out.
still...it's a looooong time before russia gets anywhere close to what might look like winning, so until then nuclear war is frankly not that likely at all. but if they do reach that point where they can reasonably claim victory, ESPECIALLY by using tactical nukes to set a super dangerous precedent, then uhhh...yeah, it's time to worry again. it's why I still genuinely hope russia chokes superhard, because the second they're done with ukraine they'll start thinking on how to fuck with all those bastards that put those sanctions on them and the only way that doesn't happen is that they crash and burn.
...but I've seen where such optimistic hope leads when making predictions about wars in the past couple of decades and I'm still firmly in the camp of: "They'll win one way or another." I just hope it's as phyrric a victory as possible tbh.