Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Mussi]

Holy fuck if someone is posting the same walls of poorly-thought out text over and over again then just ignore them. It's an immediate red flag if someone has a profile picture of an attractive woman. Anime profile pics are 100x more worth listening to.

 

[MrJokerRager]

Whatever you say, Jack. https://twitter.com/jackmurphylive/status/1504651388428636161?s=21.

Crowder covered this topic, the idea that the Russians are eliminating "degenerate western values" from their lands.

Crowder's view is that while America might export some "immoral" stuff, overall Russia has skeletons in its closet and trying to make up for decades of godless communism imposed on them.

 

[Narcotics]

Has this been posted yet? it's supposedly from 4-6 hours ago.

French President Emmanuel Macron says that Europe
"must prepare for a possible high-intensity armed conflict".
I understand wanting to reinforce your country to send a message of deterrence. but this. Alongside other moves like poland proposing a "peacekeeping" mission to ukraine. Makes me put on my tinfoil and believe that they are preparing to pull something worth preparing your military for.

BUT...!

You have to remember that the 2022 French presidential election will be held on 10 April 2022 and Macaroni is running again for president, so this is very likely just macron using the current situation to try and score support for his presidential run.

 

[A_Callow_Youth]

Only exceptionals think Russia is losing currently but look at it like this. Russia decided to invade the second largest country in Europe, that has a population of 40 million, is currently getting basically countless amounts of AT and AA missiles as well as small arms and ammunition poured into it, with an active army of around 200k with a reserve around the same size, and invaded with only in the realm of 175k troops.

The vast majority of Russia's gains were from the first week of the conflict, once the active personnel were deployed numbers became nearly equal which is bad news if you're planning an offensive, now imagine 50k troops from the reserve are deployed, sure they're not as combat effective as someone who was active personnel, but at the end of the day they passed boot camp and know how to shoot a weapon well and follow orders. Now Russia is outnumbered, they can't do an offensive without suffering major casualties and sooner or later they will have lost enough troops and equipment that any offensive on an entrenched position is doomed to failure.

The point is unless Russia sends more troops into Ukraine, it's basically impossible to for them to complete their objectives. You can't take a country that has somewhat peer weaponry and equipment the size of Ukraine's with only 175k troops. Assuming Russia sends more men, they will eventually capture Kiev, but you're joking if you think they can capture it without sending reinforcements.

As a corollary to this, Russia may not have that big of a pile of reserves it can pull from without incurring political or strategic costs. A large portion of the Russian army is tied up in border security, and they have rules about draftees that they would have to blatantly violate (as opposed to the current deniable breaking) to send into Ukraine. I'm not predicting a Chinese invasion or revolution in Russia at this point, but if they chase this dragon too hard, it's going to start coming with rapidly increasing odds of something going catastrophically wrong on the home front.

 

[Mussi]

The Federations tactics have not changed overly much since Stalingrad. Apparently. To be fair though, the Federation did try Nazi Germanies strategy of massive attack on all fronts followed by indiscriminate attack on urban centers. It's going about the same way it worked for Hitler. Extreme short term gains followed by stalemate and retreat.

There are not enough Federation troops to sustain this invasion.

Why are you only writing out "Federation"? It makes you look like a Star Wars fan fiction writer.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Why are you only writing out "Federation"? It makes you look like a Star Wars fan fiction writer.

I've decided calling an Army busy killing Russians indiscriminately "Russian" to be insulting. Therefore the soldiers killing Russians are doing so on behalf of the Federation and not Russia

 

[Kenya Jones]

Update on the Donbas Tochka Debacle. I saw a comment of someone saying that Ukrainian Tochkas are grey whereas the missile that hit Donbas was green.
So I googled Ukrainian Tochka's, and look what I find:

The blue show grey missiles, with obvious roundels of Ukraine.
So what is it with the few green ones?
Well let's take a look at them. It is for the Wikipedia article on the Tochka. It shows that it is a Russian Federation version.

While it's not 100%, it is very likely that the Tochka that hit Donbas was in fact Russian.

 

[Kenya Jones]

How absolutely DARE he rescue children from a war zone! Hopefully they were handed over to Azov for safe disposal.

Don't worry, Matt Gaetz knows what to do.

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

See I don't think their goal so far has to been to completely take the country and overthrow the government by force, I think they haven't gone full blitzkrieg because they want to starve out the government and get them into a position where they except the Russian demands. That might change but that seems what they've been doing so far. I would disagree with assessment also because a good chunk of Ukraine's army which happens to be their best soldiers are currently surrounded in both Mariupol and the broader Donbas. At least that's what I hear, could be wrong because of the fog of war etc. but if that is true, I think it'd be very hard for the Ukrainians to put up a harder resistance.

Mariupol is definitely encircled but there's still multiple major roads leading out of the Donbass front, given just how long the front has stalled in that area, it wouldn't surprise me if they've been taking out troops from Donbass and into areas closer to the Dnieper River. Hasn't been confirmed mind you, but the front has gotten to a crawl. Major encirclements like that are usually from blitzing and causing an encirclement within days, when it's been obvious they're going for an encirclement for almost a week and a half at this point.

 

[Mussi]

I've decided calling an Army busy killing Russians indiscriminately "Russian" to be insulting. Therefore the soldiers killing Russians are doing so on behalf of the Federation.

Absolutely exceptional, we're a few stages away from "Eid Pmurt, Eid."

 

[mr.moon1488]

Update on the Donbas Tochka Debacle. I saw a comment of someone saying that Ukrainian Tochkas are grey whereas the missile that hit Donbas was green.
So I googled Ukrainian Tochka's, and look what I find:
View attachment 3082593
The blue show grey missiles, with obvious roundels of Ukraine.
So what is it with the few green ones?
Well let's take a look at them. It is for the Wikipedia article on the Tochka. It shows that it is a Russian Federation version.
View attachment 3082598
While it's not 100%, it is very likely that the Tochka that hit Donbas was in fact Russian.

You have a problem. Seriously get some help.

 

[Meat Target]

They lied about Iraq.
They lied about Afghanistan.
They lied about Covid.
They lied about vaccinations.
They lied about election fraud.
They lied about BLM protests.
They lied about Kenosha.
They lied about Russiagate.
They lied about Hunter's laptop.

They didn't decide that this time they will tell the truth about the Ukraine war.

The US government, even in the most charitable, sympathetic light, has been dead wrong about everything in my lifetime.

Not a single entity in Washington, DC is fit to rule.

 

[Mussi]

Mariupol is definitely encircled but there's still multiple major roads leading out of the Donbass front, given just how long the front has stalled in that area, it wouldn't surprise me if they've been taking out troops from Donbass and into areas closer to the Dnieper River. Hasn't been confirmed mind you, but the front has gotten to a crawl. Major encirclements like that are usually from blitzing and causing an encirclement within days, when it's been obvious they're going for an encirclement for almost a week and a half at this point.

If they were taking a significant amount of troops out of the fortified positions on the Donbas, then we would likely know even if it were done slowly. Russian planes still fly overhead and large movements would be detected. Russia has still also been launching probing attacks, so even if Ukraine managed to somehow hide this, then Russia would likely have pushed against Ukraine there as they would be moving their most elite soldiers off the front.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Absolutely exceptional, we're a few stages away from "Eid Pmurt, Eid."

I wish I could be as autistic as chris. Alas, I must content myself with playing the heel in this stupid thread full of shills cheering over the graves of dead Russians because they think this will totally own globohomo.

 

[Hell on Earth]

Update on the Donbas Tochka Debacle. I saw a comment of someone saying that Ukrainian Tochkas are grey whereas the missile that hit Donbas was green.
So I googled Ukrainian Tochka's, and look what I find:
View attachment 3082593
The blue show grey missiles, with obvious roundels of Ukraine.
So what is it with the few green ones?
Well let's take a look at them. It is for the Wikipedia article on the Tochka. It shows that it is a Russian Federation version.
View attachment 3082598
While it's not 100%, it is very likely that the Tochka that hit Donbas was in fact Russian.

Ukraine has been shelling Donbass for 8 years.

There's a lot of named and unamed innocent people that have been killed by the Ukries.

How hard is it to understand that Ukraine is not Batman or Luke Skywalker.

 

[Mussi]

I wish I could be as autistic as chris. Alas, I must content myself with playing the heel in this stupid thread full of shills cheering over the graves of dead Russians because they think this will totally own globohomo.

Well, not as autistic as Chris as that would probably have you in a prison cell right now.

 

[A_Callow_Youth]

Update on the Donbas Tochka Debacle. I saw a comment of someone saying that Ukrainian Tochkas are grey whereas the missile that hit Donbas was green.
So I googled Ukrainian Tochka's, and look what I find:
View attachment 3082593
The blue show grey missiles, with obvious roundels of Ukraine.
So what is it with the few green ones?
Well let's take a look at them. It is for the Wikipedia article on the Tochka. It shows that it is a Russian Federation version.
View attachment 3082598
While it's not 100%, it is very likely that the Tochka that hit Donbas was in fact Russian.

Taking that at face value, I'll go ahead and state the alternatives to a false flag that occur to me, just for the sake of having them said. First option is a captured launcher or missile that the Ukranians put into service, but it's also entirely possible that the Russians just had a guidance or mechanical failure on the missile, and Private Murphy reared his ugly head. We often conflate improbability with intent, but we'd all do well to remind ourselves now and again that sometimes shit just happens, especially in war.

 

[Kenya Jones]

>There are videos from the east of Tochkas being used on Ukrainian positions, but are those false flags?
You're literally arguing right now that the Russians used Tochkas in Donetsk as a false flag while saying I'm making crazy false flag allegations.
View attachment 3082590

I'm not saying it was a false flag, Russian missiles have a tendency of being fucking terrible, the missiles that have been used so far have already been shown to be inaccurate, what is to think that one might fuck up and go a totally opposite way as it was intended? (this is just speculation btw.)

 

[mr.moon1488]

I'm not saying it was a false flag, Russian missiles have a tendency of being fucking terrible, the missiles that have been used so far have already been shown to be inaccurate, what is to think that one might fuck up and go a totally opposite way as it was intended? (this is just speculation btw.)

Lol well okay, but even assuming Russia is using them, if that is the case, they're likely not using them where they'd have any real chance of hitting Donetsk.

 

[Rezza]

Believe I read something here yesterday to the extent that China has looked at the Russian performance in Ukraine, plus Russian troop movements out of a number areas toward Ukraine, and perhaps may change their focus on the relatively weakly-defended Russian Far East vice Taiwan.

Don't see Japan doing anything aggressive, unless Russia somehow just collapsed. Believe Georgia is in the same position as Japan.

Merely mobilizing reserves won't be enough. Russia will need to mobilize more trucks from the civilian economy, and believe they will need to draw more food, fuel, and supplies from the civilian economy. With a GDP as small as Russia's question how much can be diverted from the civilian sector to the military without causing hardships in the civilian sector. Could be Russia as a whole has little additional capacity remaining, what with the sanctions. Keep in mind graft and corruption has apparently resulted in insufficient war reserve stocks of food/fuel/ammo/supplies.

This war is now a grind. Ukraine only gets stronger, with the Lend-Lease coming in. The phrase from Winston Churchill, "Give us the tools and we will finish the job" comes to mind. The USA, NATO, maybe Japan and South Korea, and the EU apparently will have relatively few problems keeping Ukraine supplied. Their combined GDPs and transport capabilities very much dwarf Russia's. Question how quickly Russia can replace tank/truck/aircraft/helicopter losses. Doubt China will do much, if anything, to help make good Russian truck losses, which are more important than losing tanks/armored personnel carriers now.

Another piece of WW2 history comes to mind. Italy attacked Greece in 1940, made some inroads. Greeks pushed the Italians out of Greece and into Italian-controlled Albania. Italy started to eventually wear Greece down but in the end needed German help to defeat the Greeks.

Greco-Italian War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

https://archive.ph/XWWWU

Apples and oranges? Not sure, but certainly worth considering.

And with each passing days, Ukrainian reserves and volunteers would finish their training and replenish their forces, armed with the weapons and gears from Lend Lease. Once they have the mapower, I'm sure Ukraine can started mounting big offensives to retake grounds

Can the same be said for Russia? I don't think so. Putin can't draft conscripts for this war unless he wanted to pay dearly in popular support and political capital. They now even have to recruit mercenaries from fucking Hezbollah to replenish their troops. Russia can't fix or made new vehicles because of sanctions. China is indicated to rethink their support for Russia. Things don't seem too good for Putin

Only exceptionals think Russia is losing currently but look at it like this. Russia decided to invade the second largest country in Europe, that has a population of 40 million, is currently getting basically countless amounts of AT and AA missiles as well as small arms and ammunition poured into it, with an active army of around 200k with a reserve around the same size, and invaded with only in the realm of 175k troops.

The vast majority of Russia's gains were from the first week of the conflict, once the active personnel were deployed numbers became nearly equal which is bad news if you're planning an offensive, now imagine 50k troops from the reserve are deployed, sure they're not as combat effective as someone who was active personnel, but at the end of the day they passed boot camp and know how to shoot a weapon well and follow orders. Now Russia is outnumbered, they can't do an offensive without suffering major casualties and sooner or later they will have lost enough troops and equipment that any offensive on an entrenched position is doomed to failure.

The point is unless Russia sends more troops into Ukraine, it's basically impossible to for them to complete their objectives. You can't take a country that has somewhat peer weaponry and equipment the size of Ukraine's with only 175k troops. Assuming Russia sends more men, they will eventually capture Kiev, but you're joking if you think they can capture it without sending reinforcements.

Honestly, I'm not surprised if Ukraine would ended up fielding more than half a million soldiers if oush comes to shove. Not only their population seems to support it, but this is an Existential War for them, one they can't afford to lose

See I don't think their goal so far has to been to completely take the country and overthrow the government by force, I think they haven't gone full blitzkrieg because they want to starve out the government and get them into a position where they except the Russian demands. That might change but that seems what they've been doing so far. I would disagree with assessment also because a good chunk of Ukraine's army which happens to be their best soldiers are currently surrounded in both Mariupol and the broader Donbas. At least that's what I hear, could be wrong because of the fog of war etc. but if that is true, I think it'd be very hard for the Ukrainians to put up a harder resistance.

Dont want to overthrow the government by force? One of their earliest move in the war is launching both land and airborne offensive to capture Kyiv. Their casus belli for starting this war were "demiliterization" and "denazitification", translated from Diplospeak it means complete disarmament of Ukraine Military and purging their government. I know you supported Putin in this war, but think critically, Horse Boy

Has this been posted yet? it's supposedly from 4-6 hours ago.
View attachment 3082612
French President Emmanuel Macron says that Europe
"must prepare for a possible high-intensity armed conflict".
I understand wanting to reinforce your country to send a message of deterrence. but this. Alongside other moves like poland proposing a "peacekeeping" mission to ukraine. Makes me put on my tinfoil and believe that they are preparing to pull something worth preparing your military for.

BUT...!

You have to remember that the 2022 French presidential election will be held on 10 April 2022 and Macaroni is running again for president, so this is very likely just macron using the current situation to try and score support for his presidential run.

Macron, last I read about it, is now leading in polls ever since the start of the war. So his reelection might be guaranteed at this point

As a corollary to this, Russia may not have that big of a pile of reserves it can pull from without incurring political or strategic costs. A large portion of the Russian army is tied up in border security, and they have rules about draftees that they would have to blatantly violate (as opposed to the current deniable breaking) to send into Ukraine. I'm not predicting a Chinese invasion or revolution in Russia at this point, but if they chase this dragon too hard, it's going to start coming with rapidly increasing odds of something going catastrophically wrong on the home front.

"Don't worry guys, Russia still has his best troops on reserve. Two more weeks guys, two more guys! The chad manlet Putin will defeat the kike Zelenskiy!"