Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

How well is the war this going for Russia?

  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Blyatskrieg

    Votes: 249 10.6%
  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐ I ain't afraid of no Ghost of Kiev

    Votes: 278 11.8%
  • ⭐⭐⭐ Competent attack with some upsets

    Votes: 796 33.7%
  • ⭐⭐ Stalemate

    Votes: 659 27.9%
  • ⭐ Ukraine takes back Crimea 2022

    Votes: 378 16.0%

  • Total voters
    2,360
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I have no idea where you people keep getting fancy ideas that government can be toppled by civil unrest. Doing so would require conscious effort to dismantle the government from the top like Gorbachev did from the day, otherwise the police state keeps policing the unrest away.
It's because it's worked exactly two times in regards to sanctions, and even then it took decades, and that was in combination with extensive bush wars. Even then in the end the governments themselves chose to change. However given how Rhodesia/Zimbabwe and South Africa have turned out, I'm not sure it's the best endorsement of the strategy.
 
they had the ability to manufacture near everything as recent as 30 years ago.
reactivating it all and bringing it up to more modern standars will be difficult, but not impossible, and they're capable of doing it i think.

FWIW, 30 years ago, Russian manufacturing was already 30 years out of date, which is why so much of it ended up getting deactivated. But as others have said, Russia's problem isn't people or geography; it's that they have a corrupt kleptocracy that strangles most initiative in the cradle.

the question is whether they also have the political will to do it, because it will come with very real costs and significant reduction in prosperity and quality of life. we will see if putins state is resilient and powerful enough to push this without getting toppled by potential backlash.

So the question isn't whether there is the political will in Russia to do things; it's whether there is the political will to let people do things without an oligarch stealing it all and lining his own pockets, or declaring the guy who did something to be a traitor one day because [bullshit reason]. You know how in the USA, people don't save anymore because any time you do save, the government uses the magic of central banking + tax code to move the value from you to Jeff Bezos? Russia's like that x 1000.


Some funny news out of Canada: Castro Jr. donated so much military equipment to Ukraine that his Defence Minister was forced to admit they "exhausted inventory from the Canadian Armed Forces" and that "there are capacity issues".
View attachment 3083887

In Risk, this means that Russia should forget Ukraine and invade Canada.
 
they had the ability to manufacture near everything as recent as 30 years ago.
That was 30 years ago. The building, the tooling, the staff are all gone. If you want it you will be starting over from scratch. That is what I'm saying.
I'm not saying it would be easy, or that they would be making top quality products. However, they can make "good enough" products. At the end of the day, all the bells and whistles on a lot of the stuff we use are nice, but hardly essential. They could for example go back to making pos ladas for the domestic market. Also they have way more strategic materials than just oil, titanium is a big one for example.
It's not about quality. It is about ability. Do you guys know how expensive and complicated it is to make modern chipsets? Motherfuckers are going to be going back to 80286 chips they ripped off in the 80's from Intel.
 
Nah. There's a bunch of shit going on. It's simply a matter of why waste time effort poasting when it'll get buried by the same 5 retards typing "No U" over and over again.

But if you like, here's one of the Pro Russian accounts with pics showing Ukrainian civilians evacuating Mariupol being searched for Neo-Nazi tattoos.


View attachment 3083882
More vetting than what happened with refugees in 2015.
 
Some funny news out of Canada: Castro Jr. donated so much military equipment to Ukraine that his Defence Minister was forced to admit they "exhausted inventory from the Canadian Armed Forces" and that "there are capacity issues".
View attachment 3083887
I bet this HR Karen has been googling furiously "weapons" "guns" "what are shells" "knives types" "amazon bullets" ever since the harrowing invasion of Ottawa by boomer truckers.

Edit: tinfoil time - this whole war was a grift between Russia and the USA to sell American weapons to Russia and have Europe and Cuckistan pay for it.
 
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Some funny news out of Canada: Castro Jr. donated so much military equipment to Ukraine that his Defence Minister was forced to admit they "exhausted inventory from the Canadian Armed Forces" and that "there are capacity issues".
View attachment 3083887
Looks like America's annexing Canada a little early in the FO timeline!
 
What makes you think that people need to be convinced?

All Putin has to do is inform the population that the ration of chocolate has been increased to 22 grams from last week's 25, make sure his enforcer corps (Rosgvardia) gets enough special priviledges at the expense of everybody else, and televise the unwavering support from his 20% patriotic boomer population who will cheer him up because it's just like WW2, the most heroic moment in Russia's history.

I have no idea where you people keep getting fancy ideas that government can be toppled by civil unrest. Doing so would require conscious effort to dismantle said government from the top like Gorbachev did back in the day, otherwise the police state keeps policing the unrest away.

And no, "they cannot imprison us all" bullshit does not work because they bloody well can and there will always be 20%-30% loyalist population that cheers the repressions on because they hate "traitors to the nation", "youtube influencers" and "the fifth column" who do not buy the entire RUSSIA STRONK, RUSSIA BEST Juche-style government propaganda. The government is competent enough to drive the wedge between the strata of its own people, it is a trick straight from Stalin's playbook (see Doctors' plot).
i don't mean to imply that russian civilianss will rise up and heroically overthrow putin french revolution style, that is not going to happen.
what i see happening is that when money starts drying up everywhere, putin will be forced into difficult decisions.

he will need money to keep up, rebuild and resupply the army after losing a lot of soldiers and a huge amount of materiel in ukraine.
he will need money to keep his enforcers privileged enough to remain loyal. national guard, fsb, economic leaders, state media, etc. the more people dislike putin, the more stressed and strained these enforcers become, so he will need more of them, which costs even more money.
he will need money to keep the uppity minority regions in line. chechenya is quiet only as long as putin keeps paying kadyrov.
when he can't afford to pay for all of this at the same time, someone will lose out.

maybe he stops paying kadyrov, then maybe kadyrov gets overthrown by some crazy islamic fanatic and putin gets to enjoy a third chechen war.
or maybe he doesn't pay for army resupply, then when georgia makes a move for south ossetia again the army fails to stop it. not a good look for putin either.
and of course if he cuts pay to his enforcers in the police and national guard, that'd be dangerous for him too.
 
That was 30 years ago. The building, the tooling, the staff are all gone. If you want it you will be starting over from scratch. That is what I'm saying.

It's not about quality. It is about ability. Do you guys know how expensive and complicated it is to make modern chipsets? Motherfuckers are going to be going back to 80286 chips they ripped off in the 80's from Intel.
It’s amazing how Russia has completely fucked up any ambitions it could have of being more than a legacy power only relevant because of a nuclear arsenal in just three weeks. God, I am absolutely stunned by this, the confirmed losses of equipment are absolutely staggering and unsustainable. I’m guessing at least 20% losses to their modernized tank fleet alone, to enemy action. This isn’t including breakdowns among units from poor maintenance. This has been an absolute fucking disaster in about every metric for Russia and it’s getting worse and worse and worse.
 
Bono strikes me as weird, was no one else available when they called an artist to make propaganda? why Bono of all people? i don't think U2 has been in anyone's mind in like a decade
Same people who go:

"AH SHIT, 9/11 just happened. Let's get Ja-Rule on the phone to see what he thinks."

Nigga, nobody gives a fuck what Ja-Rule thinks.

Yes, Dave Chappelle joke fit perfectly here.
 
Same people who go:

"AH SHIT, 9/11 just happened. Let's get Ja-Rule on the phone to see what he thinks."

Nigga, nobody gives a fuck what Ja-Rule thinks.

Yes, Dave Chappelle joke fit perfectly here.
Nobody calls Bono. He just calls in until they pick up and give him some airtime. Trust me those people don't give a fuck what he thinks either.
 
It’s amazing how Russia has completely fucked up any ambitions it could have of being more than a legacy power only relevant because of a nuclear arsenal in just three weeks. God, I am absolutely stunned by this, the confirmed losses of equipment are absolutely staggering and unsustainable. I’m guessing at least 20% losses to their modernized tank fleet alone, to enemy action. This isn’t including breakdowns among units from poor maintenance. This has been an absolute fucking disaster in about every metric for Russia and it’s getting worse and worse and worse.
Considering how many older model t72s we've seen I doubt it's that high a percentage tbh. Russia has so many of those stockpiled that they can afford to lose them. The crews are a different story. I do have to wonder if this will be the final push for them to switch over to a new model tank however.
 
Considering how many older model t72s we've seen I doubt it's that high a percentage tbh. Russia has so many of those stockpiled that they can afford to lose them. The crews are a different story. I do have to wonder if this will be the final push for them to switch over to a new model tank however.
Considering how they've been trying to switch to the T-14 for years at this point and haven't even made 20 of them so far I doubt it. Especially with the upcoming financial situation Russia is looking at.
 
Considering how many older model t72s we've seen I doubt it's that high a percentage tbh. Russia has so many of those stockpiled that they can afford to lose them. The crews are a different story. I do have to wonder if this will be the final push for them to switch over to a new model tank however.
We’ve seen a lot of newer modernized models that pretty much rely on western FCS destroyed as well. The amount of modernized Russian armor was never super high to start with by all appearances and the bulk is being thrown into the grinder here. The 4th Guards Tank Division has taken very heavy losses, about 10 to 20% of their T-72B3M stocks overall have been lost, there’s been T-90A’s reported as lost and a hell of a lot of dead or captured T-80’s, a good chunk of which are the BVM, which is the latest upgrade package for the T-80 in Russian service. None of this is good, and it’s likely worse than what we can see. This isn’t getting into other vehicle losses, which is also pretty damn bad for units which are supposed to be the best the Russians can throw together. Sure, there’s reserve tanks, but how many are working, how many have been regularly maintained, how many can they find crews for, how fast can they move them in, etc. It ain’t good.
 
Considering how they've been trying to switch to the T-14 for years at this point and haven't even made 20 of them so far I doubt it. Especially with the upcoming financial situation Russia is looking at.
Possibly. But even in the 90s they would still buy new equipment at a trickle, I wonder if they won't do the same here. Also remember Russians prioritize defense much differently than the west.
 
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