Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

How well is the war this going for Russia?

  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Blyatskrieg

    Votes: 249 10.6%
  • ⭐⭐⭐⭐ I ain't afraid of no Ghost of Kiev

    Votes: 278 11.8%
  • ⭐⭐⭐ Competent attack with some upsets

    Votes: 796 33.7%
  • ⭐⭐ Stalemate

    Votes: 659 27.9%
  • ⭐ Ukraine takes back Crimea 2022

    Votes: 378 16.0%

  • Total voters
    2,360
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It's an interesting video of a pro-Russian Anglo filming cities that Russia occupies. At times, he can be a little too based even for Russians. From what I can gather, he is a daredevil who filmed DPR in 2014 and now he has returned. If you can't speak snow languige this channel is a pretty good source of information.
Graham Phillips his footage is good but he's the UK variant of Tim Pool.
 
No idea what this means, really (some kind of upgrade?) but the tweeter seems to think it means something

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To put it in simple terms, those are radar-seeking missiles designed to knock out AA installations. The indication is that Russia is finally trying to put some real effort into knocking out the Ukrainian AA systems, though I suspect that this is going to be hampered to a pretty substantial degree by lack of training. Suppression of Enemy Air Defense is a demanding task that requires different airframes operating in different roles to work in concert, and is not forgiving of fuckups.
 
Not sure if this has been posted yet.
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To put it in simple terms, those are radar-seeking missiles designed to knock out AA installations. The indication is that Russia is finally trying to put some real effort into knocking out the Ukrainian AA systems, though I suspect that this is going to be hampered to a pretty substantial degree by lack of training. Suppression of Enemy Air Defense is a demanding task that requires different airframes operating in different roles to work in concert, and is not forgiving of fuckups.
I just love it when people put things in simple terms for me
 
Another fun thing, assuming Wikipedia is accurate: as of 2021, the Russian Army fielded 550 T-72B3M (the 2016 model) tanks, while the confirmed loss tracker at time of posting counts 60 losses. Granted, those include abandonments that could potentially have been reclaimed, but that's 10% of Russia's supply of their newest tank in actual service, built up over 6 years, gone in 3.5 weeks.

Something something, Putin's just sending in the garbage units.[/ispoiler[
That's really not a shock as the T-72 has a known weakness to Javelins that is shared by the B3 and B3M as they are still effectively souped-up 70s tanks, which is why deploying normal T-72s is the smarter move here. Keep in mind though, as the article I just linked states, Russia stated before the war that upgrading 72s isn't very expensive, and since Russia has over 9000 (funne meme) T-72s in duty and storage, these losses are bad but not exactly as harrowing as you're implying. If I were Putin, I'd be more concerned about the potential damage to the air fleet.
 
That's really not a shock as the T-72 has a known weakness to Javelins that is shared by the B3 and B3M as they are still effectively souped-up 70s tanks, which is why deploying normal T-72s is the smarter move here. Keep in mind though, as the article I just linked states, Russia stated before the war that upgrading 72s isn't very expensive, and since Russia has over 9000 (funne meme) T-72s in duty and storage, these losses are bad but not exactly as harrowing as you're implying. If I were Putin, I'd be more concerned about the potential damage to the air fleet.
In the long term it's not crippling, but as you say, 10% is something of the traditional point where eyebrows start to go up and combat effectiveness starts to go down. Ukraine is probably setting the world record for kill confirmation percentage, but it still raises the question of how many more are out there without a photo. The T-80U T-72B are both at similar numbers, and are tied for second place at 43 losses each. Right now, the only large unit count tank being under-represented in the casualty figures is the 2011 version of the B3, with 18 losses. In all, I woudn't be surprised if active service Russian armor is getting very close to the 10% mark as a whole, and if we presume that the proportion of tanks in theater is roughly equal to that of the troops in Ukraine (roughly 25% of the active service), then that's potentially up to a 40% loss of combat strength among the Russian armored forces in-country. I'm not going to live or die by those numbers, but that's some serious big if true.

EDIT: Thinking this through further, it's likely not that bad. Russia's forces in Ukraine are its offensive-oriented units, which are likely going to have a higher degree of mechanization than the garrison forces along the Chinese border or wherever.
 
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"Parents make little girl say hello to Putin and say "I'm going to cut the Russians"
You gotta love those Ukrainian parents

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Cringe when wokies do it and cringe when slav-nazis do it. It's been a bit but this looks like the same girl in another short clip posted in the first thread where they have her saying other stuff with a knife in hand, his bros should tell him to let his kids be kids.
 
Idk, could there be some other big differences between Poland and Ukraine? How easy it is to start a business without being stolen from by gangsters/the government, levels of corruption in public life, Poland receiving hundreds of billions of Euros in subsidies since 2004 (which, while welcome, aren't a free gift and do come with pretty tight strings attached)?

Russia tried being open to the West in the 90's. They got ass-raped by Western bankers for their trouble, and that's why Putin got elected.

It's definitely true that Eastern Europe sucks, but it's not true that being "open to the West" is a guaranteed magic carpet ride to riches or even middle class security. Afghanistan was open to the West for 20 years, money flooded into the place. It's still a shithole. Greece is a full EU member and the best option for young Greeks is to get the fuck out of Greece.

Given that the West is pretty far along the road of replacing its own populations with infinity immigrants willing to work for peanuts (many of them sending remittances back to Poland, lol), aggressively exporting and offshoring industries and jobs, and treading water on historically unprecedented levels of debt, it's not obvious people in the rest of the world will still envy Western standards of living in 2050. They might be jealous of the Chinese instead. But if you were a Ukie or a Russian looking at the situation right now, sure - West is better.
One of the biggest differences was choice of privatization. After fall of communism you needed to somehow give citizens the value of government enterprises, because how else you are going to start market economy?
In Ukraine and Russia each citizen got very small share of governments companies, free to sell and buy as they wish. Soon after that there was group of people who bought those shares, going from house to house, man to man, usually for bargain prices, or abuse this mechanism in any other way. Those people are now oligarchs. In Poland, Czech republic etc. etc. there was other mechanism of privatization. Nobody really got those shares for free, you had to have your own money to bought them. So, this mechanism was less prone to abuse.

This is basically core difference between Poland and Ukraine. All other things like corruption, how easy is to set up company, why Ukrainian politics was so connected to Russian steam from that.

Mind you that every postsoviet country had economics crisis in 90s. Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Czech republic etc. etc. Today's economist agree that so called "shock therapy" wasn't optimal way of establishing changes. Other than that oligarchs problem explains largely Ukraine's policy. Euromaidan wasn't the first revolution in Ukraine. Before that was Orange revolution. There was larger trend of Ukraine being in between Russia and EU. They couldnt get too close to the Russia, because if they would do so Russian oligarchs would swallow up Ukrainian oligarchs without even biting. And they couldnt join the EU, because that would mean oligarchs would lose their position. So there was pattern of large social disapproval, protest, revolution and then back to square one, because core issues with what was wrong in first place weren't or couldn't be changed. You can say what you want about that those protest all were CIA psyops and so on, but I think this is pretty pointless. Even if that's true, it is missing the pictuer of how universal was common Ukrainian hatered for their government. How dissatisfied were with their political situation.

And for the question if Ukraine would be better of joinig Russia or EU, well we have conuterfactual. We have "what if" scenario. Ask Lithuanians, Latvians, Estonians if they would like to live in Russia. Today standards of living in Poland is much higher than in Russia, even though it wasn't the case in 80s. All those Eastern European countries used to be pretty similar under the Iron Curtain. You can complain all you want about "Globohomo", but there is clear cut difference between Poland and Ukraine.
 
In the long term it's not crippling, but as you say, 10% is something of the traditional point where eyebrows start to go up and combat effectiveness starts to go down. Ukraine is probably setting the world record for kill confirmation percentage, but it still raises the question of how many more are out there without a photo. The T-80U T-72B are both at similar numbers, and are tied for second place at 43 losses each. Right now, the only large unit count tank being under-represented in the casualty figures is the 2011 version of the B3, with 18 losses. In all, I woudn't be surprised if active service Russian armor is getting very close to the 10% mark as a whole, and if we presume that the proportion of tanks in theater is roughly equal to that of the troops in Ukraine (roughly 25% of the active service), then that's potentially up to a 40% loss of combat strength among the Russian armored forces in-country. I'm not going to live or die by those numbers, but that's some serious big if true.

EDIT: Thinking this through further, it's likely not that bad. Russia's forces in Ukraine are its offensive-oriented units, which are likely going to have a higher degree of mechanization than the garrison forces along the Chinese border or wherever.
As you say, it's very likely that Russia's armored units are disproportionately concentrated in the invasion. Since we really don't know how the armor is distributed however, I don't know if it's productive to potentially argue about numbers that can't be known yet.

On a related note, I wonder if an explanation for the oddly low number of lost B3s compared to B3Ms could be a consequence of misidentification. The footage and photos that are being worked with certainly aren't perfect, so I could see some errors on that. Though, it could also be that B3Ms are being deployed more heavily to worse zones of fighting and their vulnerability to Javelins wasn't accounted for or that more B3Ms were sent in than B3s from the start.
 
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I have to put up with your Pro Putin shit and eat it. It is part of the discussion, I don't like it but it is important to hear all sides otherwise its a gay hugbox situation where we jerk each other off. Anyways here is some dying Russians for funzies.


Although you're not one of the people I'd threadban you could just post pictures of Ukranian action without also adding "lulz look at those ruskies getting blown to pieces, they suck" type of nonsense at the end of it. I confronted your bullshit on your in private and you had nothing to add. Like this is not a football match and you dont have a dog in the fight so why do you think youre "countering Putin propaganda"?


Look at the Turk on the Lurk, fucking par excellance poster--
 
It was originally just a renamed T-72 upgrade so that people wouldn't associate it with gulf War. They still wanted export sales lol, though India ended up adopting it and license producing it so I suppose it worked
The thing with the T72 exported to Iraq was that it was in many ways a monkey model but worse the Russians wouldn't supply the Iraqis with proper targeting guidance nor good shells. Many times the Iraqis fired essentially training shells.

Then the Iraqis made Assad Babil which is a downgrade of a downgrade, a T72 with mild steel.

Add to this the inferior training and absolute garbage Command and Control the Iraqis had

Sure, the Russians don't want the association but for all the right reasons.


You can look at KDR in the Vietnam war where the Russians trained the pilots and sent them their best missiles vs what happens in Egypt vs Israel.

In Vietnam Migs had a positive KDR vs US fighters, around Israel the Egyptians tended to lose 7 to 1 or something.


Or maybe just Arabs suck at war.
 
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