Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Freshly Baked Socks]

their job seems to consist of posting on western social media.

They should do a better job, or find more influential friends - I had a heck of a time searching for them phonetically after listening to reports.

 

[Honka Honka Burning Love]

This seems like it has to be a troll.

The fact that we can't tell for sure causes me pain.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1508813631311466496.html

Scott Ritter's take on recent happenings.

1/ Big Arrow War—a primer. For all those scratching their heads in confusion, or dusting off their dress uniforms for the Ukrainian victory parade in Kiev, over the news about Russia’s “strategic shift”, you might want to re-familiarize yourself with basic military concepts.
2/ Maneuver warfare is a good place to start. Understand Russia started its “special military operation” with a severe manpower deficit—200,000 attackers to some 600,000 defenders (or more). Classic attritional conflict was never an option. Russian victory required maneuver.
3/ Maneuver war is more psychological than physical and focuses more on the operational than on the tactical level. Maneuver is relational movement—how you deploy and move your forces in relation to your opponent. Russian maneuver in the first phase of its operation support this.
4/ The Russians needed to shape the battlefield to their advantage. In order to do this, they needed to control how Ukraine employed it’s numerically superior forces, while distributing their own smaller combat power to best accomplish this objective.
5/ Strategically, to facilitate the ability to maneuver between the southern, central, and northern fronts, Russia needed to secure a land bridge between Crimea and Russia. The seizure of the coastal city of Mariupol was critical to this effort. Russia has accomplished this task.
6/ While this complex operation unfolded, Russia needed to keep Ukraine from maneuvering its numerically superior forces in a manner that disrupted the Mariupol operation. This entailed the use of several strategic supporting operations—feints, fixing operations, and deep attack.
7/ The concept of a feint is simple—a military force either is seen as preparing to attack a given location, or actually conducts an attack, for the purpose of deceiving an opponent into committing resources in response to the perceived or actual actions.
8/ The use of the feint played a major role in Desert Storm, where Marine Amphibious forces threatened the Kuwaiti coast, forcing Iraq to defend against an attack that never came, and where the 1st Cavalry Division actually attacked Wadi Al Batin to pin down the Republican Guard.
9/ The Russians made extensive use of the feint in Ukraine, with Amphibious forces off Odessa freezing Ukrainian forces there, and a major feint attack toward Kiev compelling Ukraine to reinforce their forces there. Ukraine was never able to reinforce their forces in the east.
10/ Fixing operations were also critical. Ukraine had assembled some 60,000-100,000 troops in the east, opposite Donbas. Russia carried out a broad fixing attack designed to keep these forces fully engaged and unable to maneuver in respect to other Russian operations.
11/ During Desert Storm, two Marine Divisions were ordered to carry out similar fixing attacks against Iraqi forces deployed along the Kuwaiti-Saudi border, tying down significant numbers of men and material that could not be used to counter the main US attack out west.
12/ The Russian fixing attack pinned the main Ukrainian concentration of forces in the east, and drove them away from Mariupol, which was invested and reduced. Supporting operations out of Crimea against Kherson expanded the Russian land bridge. This phase is now complete.
13/ Russia also engaged in a campaign of strategic deep attack designed to disrupt and destroy Ukrainian logistics, command & control, and air power and long-range fire support. Ukraine is running out of fuel and ammo, cannot coordinate maneuver, and has no meaningful Air Force.
14/ Russia is redeploying some of its premier units from where they had been engaged in feint operations in northern Kiev to where they can support the next phase of the operation, namely the liberation of the Donbas and the destruction of the main Ukrainian force in the east.
15/ This is classic maneuver warfare. Russia will now hold Ukraine in the north and south while its main forces, reinforced by the northern units, Marines, and forces freed up by the capture of Mariupol, seek to envelope and destroy 60,000 Ukrainian forces in the east.
16/ This is Big Arrow War at its finest, something Americans used to know but forgot in the deserts and mountains of Afghanistan and Iraq. It also explains how 200,000 Russians have been able to defeat 600,000 Ukrainians. Thus ends the primer on maneuver warfare, Russian style.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

A recurring detail I noticed from these "war analysts" is that they expected things to go like Iraq 2003.

To be fair, it's pretty much the only modern large scale invasion with a modern army doing full blown combined arms attacks, so it's easy enough to fall into that trap.

 

[TheTrumanShow]

Civilization in full effect

View attachment 3121897

Never fuck with nuclear Gandhi.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

Two more weeks

More like two weeks ago.

Now the Ukrainian army is scattered, they have no air support, no command structure, no logistics, no remaining fuel or munitions. Only thing left is mopping up their remaining forces in the east, after that just have to deal with small groups of western-backed insurgents in the rest of the country, that's what Wagner was brought in to do.

Oh yeah, and when is that amphibious assault on Odessa happening, again?

 

[Lone MacReady]

Just a random screenshot I found, sadly no link, but this is peak reddit soy logic

View attachment 3121948

"Surely the gated-community millionaires understand the plight of the little guy. Spiderman will save us!" It's comments like these that make me want Russia (or whoever the villain of the hour is) to invade us just to toughen up our soylent population.

 

[ulsterscotsman]

Based off what we've seen, I don't think azov will be much of a problem post war. I doubt more than a handful will be making it out alive, regardless of how the war goes. Post war, win or lose, the survivors will be the ones taking the fall for war crimes.

I think Azov has the potential to be even more dangerous after the war as they'll be Martyrs to many including their own children.
There may not be many left alive of the Azov Regiment by the end of the war but they have the potential to be the nucleus of something far more dangerous in an impoverished and war torn post war Ukraine.

 

[Josterman]

Well she is not wrong per se. She may not like the truth she will be hearing though.

She will just reject it.

War support sees a 2-3% rise.

My support is the red meaning i strongly oppose the living daylights out of it.

 

[Iron Jaguar]

I don't think that matters. It already emerged before the election that Joe was laundering bribes thru his worthless crackhead son and the media just ignored it. What do we think would happen if receipts came out of Kyiyiv - the FBI arresting him? I'm sure they'll get right on that, lol

I think it would get a lot more attention from Normies this time around.

Going to use this as an excuse to show off how the Prowler, the aircraft that was replaced by the Growler, is one of the best looking aircraft of all time, I just love the aesthetics of late 60s-mid 80s aircraft in general.
View attachment 3121990

Not bad, but I maintain that the A-10 is the coolest fixed wing ever built. I'm also a fan of the Rutan Long EZ.

 

[Splinters RCVD ✞]

A piece from Russian media with the interesting premise of "returning Europe to the 19 century":

https://www.pravda.ru/economics/1693774-neokolonializm/

(Use auto-translate if needed, that's what I did.)
Particularly intriguing to me is the closing:

"

The tendency of representatives of the Western world to politicize the issue of gas supplies from Russia leads to an imbalance in the global energy system and damages, among other things, the initiators of restrictions. If we exclude the extreme option associated with a global war for resources, then the collapse of the world economy into enclaves is quite likely, expert of the Union of Oil and Gas Producers Rustam Tankaev believes .

The three hypothetical enclaves with modern living standards include Russia-China, the United States-Canada and Australia, while other countries will have to return to the 19th century. The only option to avoid this would be the willingness of Europe to negotiate with Russia through a respectful dialogue on an equal footing. True, at the sight of the current "pleiad" of European politicians, it is hard to believe in this."

 

[White_N]

Update: The statement of General Shamanov about the alleged capture of the Nazi "Chile" near Kharkov does not correspond to reality. He is quite alive and well in Kharkov.

What on earth was Shamanov thinking? Now I am beginning to believe that the Russians are gaining ground despite their commander, rather than because of their leadership. They are simply too angry to give up.

 

[Melight]

A piece from Russian media with the interesting premise of "returning Europe to the 19 century":

https://www.pravda.ru/economics/1693774-neokolonializm/

(Use auto-translate if needed, that's what I did.)
Particularly intriguing to me is the closing:

"

The three hypothetical enclaves with modern living standards include Russia-China, the United States-Canada and Australia, while other countries will have to return to the 19th century. The only option to avoid this would be the willingness of Europe to negotiate with Russia through a respectful dialogue on an equal footing. True, at the sight of the current "pleiad" of European politicians, it is hard to believe in this."

Finally retvrn to tradition

 

[DumbDude42]

The three hypothetical enclaves with modern living standards include Russia-China, the United States-Canada and Australia, while other countries will have to return to the 19th century. The only option to avoid this would be the willingness of Europe to negotiate with Russia through a respectful dialogue on an equal footing. True, at the sight of the current "pleiad" of European politicians, it is hard to believe in this."

quite an optimistic take tbh, reads a lot like some russians wishful fantasies
europe does in principle have reserves in resources (including oil and gas) they could tap, currently they refuse to do so because of retardation (muh environment) and greed (importing is cheaper than drilling locally) but when push comes to shove they can fall back on tapping those reserves rather than regress to pre industrial society

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

Update: The statement of General Shamanov about the alleged capture of the Nazi "Chile" near Kharkov does not correspond to reality. He is quite alive and well in Kharkov.
View attachment 3122054
View attachment 3122060
View attachment 3122074
What on earth was Shamanov thinking? Now I am beginning to believe that the Russians are gaining ground despite their commander, rather than because of their leadership. They are simply too angry to give up.

I'm shocked that both sides are full of shit sometimes and lie for propaganda purposes....

 

[Retired Junta Member]

I think Azov has the potential to be even more dangerous after the war as they'll be Martyrs to many including their own children.
There may not be many left alive of the Azov Regiment by the end of the war but they have the potential to be the nucleus of something far more dangerous in an impoverished and war torn post war Ukraine.

Baltikumer 2.0 Electric Boogaloo

 

[Kane Lives]

quite an optimistic take tbh, reads a lot like some russians wishful fantasies
europe does in principle have reserves in resources (including oil and gas) they could tap, currently they refuse to do so because of retardation (muh environment) and greed (importing is cheaper than drilling locally) but when push comes to shove they can fall back on tapping those reserves rather than regress to pre industrial society

Seeing the retardation of the Green movement in Europe makes me want to shower you in rainbows. Until they're ousted as both a political party and as a movement I honestly see Europe continuing to step on their own dick and curl up in a fetal position to be bullied.

 

[DumbDude42]

Seeing the retardation of the Green movement in Europe makes me want to shower you in rainbows. Until they're ousted as both a political party and as a movement I honestly see Europe continuing to step on their own dick and curl up in a fetal position to be bullied.

oh it will be painful no doubt, dropping the retardation will involve violent upheaval of some kind
i'm just saying that when they're faced with real starvation and freezing to death, then even the eurocucks will abandon their green delusions, fire up the coal plants, and start drilling for oil and gas regardless of the screeching harpies who bitch about the impact of fracking on local wildlife

 

[cistendered]

Link / Archive
Nazi camp memorial says Russian officials unwelcome at ceremony
Oh gawd, this whole conflict has been anuddah shoah. I'm sure that Russian and Belarussian officials are super disappointed they won't be able to go to Buchenwald to be lectured about what terrible Nazis they are.

 

[Oxous]

Reports that there's been an explosion near the city of Belgorod, in Russia. Assuming the video isn't old, it's 100% Ukrainians striking at a military target - probably a static one, in my unprofessional opinion...

E: Well, I should add it's claimed that this is an ammunition depot blowing up. People already speculating a lot of potential causes, ranging from Ukrainian special forces to missile strike to a mere workplace accident.